能源生态效率评价及其与经济增长脱钩分析——以黄河流域9省区为例

采用Super—SBM模型、GML模型测度1997—2019年黄河流域9省区的能源生态效率,通过构建脱钩模型,探讨经济增长与能源消耗及能源生态效率的脱钩关系。结果发现:①黄河流域9省区能源生态效率呈增长—下降—增长的趋势,累积增长了15.3%,其中,追赶效率贡献率为41.5%,而技术进步不足。②黄河流域9省区在经济增长与能源消耗呈强脱钩—弱脱钩—强脱钩发展态势,而经济增长与能源生态效率呈强脱钩—弱脱钩—强脱钩—弱脱钩发展态势。     

青藏高原典型区域资源环境与社会经济耦合分析

资源环境与社会经济之间的协调关系对区域可持续发展具有重要意义.本研究以青藏高原典型区域玉树藏族自治州为研究对象,综合运用数量耦合方法（耦合协调度模型）和速度耦合方法（Tapio脱钩模型）讨论区域资源环境和社会经济体系相互关系在时间序列上的变化,分析二者之间的耦合协调关系及演变过程.结果显示：①受耕地面积变化、林业和草原有害生物防治强度变化的影响,研究区2016年处于重度失调型,典型研究区域在其余年份均处于中度或轻度失调型,区域资源环境和社会经济发展协同效应不高.②总体而言,研究区的社会经济与资源环境水平、资源环境压力和资源环境体系3项指标之间均呈强脱钩状态,区域资源环境和社会经济体系处于良性发展状态.综上,近年来青藏高原典型区域的社会经济发展水平不断升高,资源环境体系发展水平有待提高.     

Decoupling analysis of water consumption and economic development of arid and semiarid regions in Northwest China

The contradiction between China's economic development, its need for resources and the protection of the environment is ctitical. Scarce water resources have resulted in a considerable bottleneck restricting the economic development of water-deficient areas. An objective evaluation of the decoupling state of water consumption and economic development has become an important indicator of regional economic sustainable development. Based on panel data from 2000 to 2017 for six provinces in the arid and semiarid regions of Northwest China, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method is employed to decompose the factors of the decoupling index and establish a decoupling relationship model between water consumption and economic development. The reasons that affect the decoupling state of water resource utilization and economic development are herein discussed, and the stability of the decoupling trend is analysed. Based on the overall regional trend, the decoupling state of the arid and semiarid regions in Northwest China improved from weak to strong, but the high decoupling stability index varied among the provinces. The intensity and structure were promotional factors for decoupling water consumption and economic development, and the contribution rate of the intensity factor was higher than that of the structure factor. Income and population were inhibiting factors for decoupling water consumption and economic development, and the contribution rate of the income factor was higher than that of the population factor. Based on these results, corresponding policy recommendations are provided.     

以跨学科模型体系支撑经济社会绿色低碳发展

正2020年9月22日,国家主席习近平在第七十五届联合国大会一般性辩论上发表重要讲话,承诺我国将提高国家自主贡献力度,采取更有力的政策和措施,二氧化碳排放力争于2030年前达到峰值,于2060年前实现碳中和。实现"双碳"目标的关键在于控制化石能源消费,而能源是经济发展的物质基础,节能降碳措施将为我国经济发展带来显著压力。今后一段时间内,我国将面临节能减排与后疫情重建的双重挑战,亟须开展相关理论与实证研究,为绿色低碳发展提供科学依据。     

Decomposition of Energy-related CO2 Emissions from Shanghai＇s Industries and Policy Implications

This paper quantifies a decomposition analysis of energy-related CO2 emissions in the industrial sectors of Shanghai over the period 1994-2007.The Log-Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) method is applied to this study in terms of six factors:labor force,labor mobility,gross labor productivity,energy intensity,fuel mix,and emission coefficient.In addition,the decoupling effect between industrial economic growth and CO2 emissions is analyzed to evaluate CO2 mitigation strategies for Shanghai.The results show that all labor productivity has the largest positive effect on CO2 emission changes in the industrial sectors,whereas labor mobility and energy intensity are the main components for decreasing CO2 emissions.Other factors have different effects on CO2 mitigation in different sub-periods.Although a relative decoupling of industrial CO2 emissions from the economic growth in Shanghai has been found,Shanghai should keep pace with the industrial CO2 emissions reduction by implementing low-carbon technology.These results have important policy implications:Plan C is the reasonable choice for Shanghai.     

城市工业部门脱钩分析

节能减排是我国应对能源短缺与全球变暖两大环境热点问题的基本国策。目前国家已经制定了一系列节能减排目标并分解落实到地区与行业执行。城市是人类生产和生活的中心,快速城市化带来了人口、能源消费和碳排放的激增。工业部门在城市经济发展和能源消费中占据着重要地位,因此成为节能减排工作的重点对象。重庆市对西部地区的发展有着重要的意义,目前在工业化进程中面临着巨大的节能减排压力。本文以重庆市为案例对象,应用脱钩分析方法研究了该市各工业部门经济增长、能源消耗和碳排放之间的关联特征,并提出脱钩稳定性指标用以评价脱钩状态的波动情况。结果表明:重庆市工业部门能源消费品种单一,对煤炭依赖性过大;高能耗部门虽然表现为弱脱钩,且脱钩稳定性高,但能耗强度和碳排放强度偏大,远高于工业部门的平均水平;部分中低能耗部门由于生产技术相对落后和关键节能减排技术缺失造成能源利用效率参差不齐和碳排放水平不稳定。依据研究结果本文提出重庆市工业部门节能减排的实施建议。     

山东省建设占用耕地与经济增长的脱耦分析

利用山东省1997-2008年的相关数据,分析了耕地建设占用与经济增长之间脱耦的时间过程和原因。结论认为:1997-2008年间,山东省耕地面积经历了由上升到下降的变化过程,2004年是增减的拐点。2004-2008年间,建设占用成为山东省耕地流失的主要驱动因子。2001-2004年与2005-2008年,山东省耕地建设占用与经济增长均表明发生了明显的脱耦现象,且有加速发展的趋势,山东省经济增长逐渐摆脱了对耕地资源的依赖。相对1997-2000年,2001-2004年间山东省经济增长对耕地资源占用的压力呈减轻趋势,属于相对脱耦;与2001-2004年相比,2005-2008年间山东省建设占用耕地与经济发展成为绝对脱耦型。2005-2008年间,山东省耕地占用与经济增长的脱耦主要得益于第三产业的快速发展。因此,继续实施严格的耕地保护策略,可能并不会对经济发展有较大的影响。     

Investigating factors influencing pedestrian injury severity at intersections

Objective: Vehicle crashes that involve pedestrians at intersections have been reported occasionally. Pedestrian injury severity in these crashes is significantly related to driver and pedestrian attributes, vehicle characteristics, and the geometry of intersections. Identifying factors associated with pedestrian injury severity (PIS) is critical for reducing crashes and improving safety. For developing the proposed probit models, drivers involved in crashes are classified into 3 groups: young drivers (16 ≤ age ≤ 24), middle-aged drivers (25 ≤ age ≤ 64), and older drivers (age ≥ 65). This study determines that PIS is significantly but differently affected by these grouped drivers with different sets of explanatory variables.

Methods: A total of 2,614 crash records (2011–2012) at intersections in Cook County, Illinois, were collected. An ordered probit modeling approach was employed to develop the proposed model and examine factors influencing PIS. The likelihood ratio test was used to assess model performance. Elasticity analysis was conducted to interpret the marginal effect of contributing factors on PIS associated with different driver groups by age.

Results: The results show that 4 independent variables, including pedestrian age, vehicle type, point of first contact, and weather condition, significantly affect PIS at intersections for all drivers. Two additional independent variables (i.e., number of vehicles and traffic type) affect PIS for young and middle-aged drivers, and 2 other variables (i.e., divided type and hit-and-run related) are significant to PIS for both young and older drivers.

Conclusions: The independent variables significant to PIS at intersections for young, middle-aged, and older driver groups were identified and the marginal effect of each variable to the likelihood of PIS were assessed.     

南京市生态足迹时空特征及脱钩效应分析

为探寻资源环境与经济增长的可持续发展道路,利用修正的生态足迹模型,回顾了2000~2014年南京市生态足迹、生态承载力及生态赤字的时空特征,依据《南京市国民经济和社会发展十三五规划纲要》趋势外推生态足迹变化情况及其与经济增长的脱钩状态。结果表明:2000~2014年南京市人均生态足迹和人均生态赤字快速增长,人均生态承载力缓慢下降;研究期内南京市各区都出现了不同程度的生态赤字,且生态承载力呈现中心城区低,近郊和远郊区高的格局;生态足迹与GDP之间呈现弱脱钩、强脱钩、扩张连接3种状态,且弱脱钩指数不断减小,经济增长方式开始由粗放型向集约型转变;若按当前资源环境损耗量发展,"十三五"期间生态足迹继续增加,未来在实现可持续的经济增长方式上仍需努力。因此,南京市应坚持调整产业结构,转变经济增长方式;严格执行生态保护红线、永久基本农田保护红线,城市开发边界等"三条红线";实行差别化的国土空间格局优化措施;控制人口过快增长;逐步构建基于生态资产流转的生态补偿机制。     

经济发展与环境污染脱钩理论及EKC假说的关系——兼论中国地级城市的脱钩划分

脱钩理论与EKC假说,两者都描述了经济发展与环境污染之间的动态关系,其中,脱钩理论揭示了经济发展与环境压力是否同步变化的关联,而EKC假说先于脱钩理论出现,并阐述了环境污染随着经济发展水平呈现出的非线性关系。本研究基于脱钩理论与EKC假说的理论内涵,首先通过数理模型的推导,得到了二者的内在联系,并运用一阶差分GMM方法对此进行实证检验。基于数理分析和一阶差分GMM估计的实证结果显示,脱钩理论与EKC假说均呈现出先上升后下降的倒"U"型曲线特征,且相对脱钩与绝对脱钩的临界点正好对应于EKC的拐点。其次,结合二者的关联,本研究将人均GDP水平加入脱钩类型的判定标准,在传统脱钩状态分类的基础上,以EKC拐点处所对应的人均GDP水平,以及数值为0.8的脱钩弹性系数为两条分界线,进一步将城市的经济发展与环境污染脱钩关系类型划分为6种形态,分别为"高收入未脱钩"、"低收入未脱钩"、"低收入相对脱钩"、"高收入相对脱钩"、"低收入绝对脱钩"和"高收入绝对脱钩"。最后,本研究将理论部分所做的推导以及脱钩的象限划分应用于实际的城市脱钩案例研究中,并依据一阶差分GMM的回归结果,将中国271个地级城市的经济发展与污染排放的脱钩状态进行了归类。对2004—2013年中国271个地级城市的经验分析表明,近50%的城市尚处于"低收入未脱钩"和"低收入相对脱钩"状态,意味着中国地级城市发展不平衡,且城市内部的脱钩发展与经济发展不匹配问题突出,这些城市在未来的绿色脱钩建设过程中将长期面临着"保增长"和"促脱钩"的双重任务。