基于系统动力学的高校消防安全管理研究

为识别高校消防安全管理的影响因素,有效预防高校火灾事故,本文结合实际案例和调研情况,建立高校消防安全管理系统动力学模型,仿真分析不同消防安全投入比例对高校消防安全管理水平的提升效果和影响趋势。结果表明:高校消防安全管理系统中采用平均分配的投入方案并不理想,且侧重单一分支的投入方案不能有效提升高校整体消防安全管理水平;与之相对应的,采取分散却有所侧重的投入策略是高校消防安全管理投入的最佳选择,消防管理及检查、设备维保更新和消防宣传教育是高校消防安全管理的重点需求与亟需方向;构建的高校消防安全管理系统动力学模型符合实际,能够识别高校消防安全管理中各要素间的相互作用和影响机制,并能有效预测高校消防安全管理水平的变化趋势。     

几种常用农药在菠菜中的残留动态研究

在露地栽培条件下,研究了氯氰菊酯、氰戊菊酯、毒死蜱和百菌清在菠菜生产中的残留降解动态.试验结果表明,不同农药在菠菜体内的降解速度有很大差异,其残留量随用药后时间的延长而减少.在推荐用量和加倍用量叶面喷洒处理条件下,毒死蜱的半衰期分别为3.95 d和4.61 d,氯氰菊酯的半衰期分别为5.03 d和5.88 d,氰戊菊酯的半衰期分别为5.26 d和7.22 d,百菌清的半衰期分别为2.63 d和3.39 d.在试验的4种农药中,氰戊菊酯的半衰期最长,百菌清的半衰期最短.因此,在菠菜生产中使用农药时,应充分考虑所用农药的半衰期,严格掌握安全间隔期,确保生产的菠菜达到无公害菠菜的质量标准要求.     

Carbonaceous aerosols in PM10 and pollution gases in winter in Beijing

An intensive observation of organic carbon (OC) and element carbon (EC) in PM10 and gaseous materials (SO2, CO, and O3,) was conducted continuously to assess the characteristics of wintertime carbonaceous aerosols in an urban area of Beijing, China. Results showed that the averaged total carbon (TC) and PM10 concentrations in observation period are 30.2±120.4 and 172.6±198.3 μ/m3, respectively. Average OC concentration in nighttime (24.9±19.6 μ/m3) was 40% higher than that in daytime (17.7±10.9 μ/m3). Average EC concentrations in daytime (8.8±15.2 μ/m3) was close to that in nighttime (8.9±15.1 μ/m3). The OC/EC ratios in nighttime ranging from 2.4 to 2.7 are higher than that in daytime ranging from 1.9 to 2.0. The concentrations of OC, EC, PM10 were low with strong winds and high with weak winds. The OC and EC were well correlated with PM10, CO and SO2, which implies they have similar sources. OC and EC were not well correlated with O3. By considering variation of OC/EC ratios in daytime and night time, correlations between OC and O3, and meteorological condition, we speculated that OC and EC in Beijing PM10 were emitted as the primary particulate form. Emission of motor vehicle with low OC/EC ratio and coal combustion sources with high OC/EC ratio are probably the dominant sources for carbonaceous aerosols in Beijing in winter. A simple method was used to estimate the relative contribution of sources to carbonaceous aerosols in Beijing PM10. Motor vehicle source accounts for 80% and 68%, while coal combustion accounts for 20% and 32% in daytime and nighttime, respectively in Beijing. Averagely, the motor vehicle and coal combustion accounted for 74% and 26%, respectively, for carbonaceous aerosols during the observation period. It points to the motor vehicle is dominant emission for carbonaceous aerosols in Beijing PM10 in winter period, which should be paid attention to control high level of PM10 in Beijing effectively.     

Ecology of reproduction of the red king crab

Conditions for reproduction of the red king crab Paralithodes camtschatica (Tilesius) on scallop plantations in Primorye have been studied. It has been found that the settling of larvae and the growth of juveniles to the size sufficient for their survival take place only in the cleanest water areas of Peter the Great Bay. Solar activity (expressed as the Wolfer number) is one of the most important abiotic factors affecting P. camtschatica reproduction. The population dynamics of juvenile crabs are characterized by fluctuations with two-year and five-year cycles.     

用于环境适应性分析的航电产品应力仿真技术

热和振动是引起航空电子产品环境适应性问题的2个主要应力,因而在设计过程中应当开展产品的热和振动应力分析.介绍了用于环境适应性分析的航空电子产品数字样机及其建模方法;讨论了基于计算流体力学(CFD)技术的航空电子产品热应力仿真分析方法,以及基于有限元(FEM)技术的振动应力仿真分析方法,并给出了分析案例.     

基于流体力学数值模拟的装甲车热环境分析

为更加准确地描述装甲车乘员室在不同条件下的热环境,采用两方程湍流模型,将装甲车置于数字风洞模型内,模拟求解不同条件下装甲车内的三维对流换热和空气流动状况,该方法可为装甲车乘员室热环境设计研究提供参考.     

航天器动力学试验评价技术

回顾了国内外航天器动力学试验评价技术的研究和应用,分析了国内航天器动力学试验存在的问题,阐述了复杂航天器的发展对于航天器动力学试验评价体系提出的新要求,重点分析了在评价内容、航天器环境、航天器环境模拟方法、航天器环境效应、测量与分析、评价方法及准则方面必须突破和解决的若干关键技术,展望了航天器动力学试验评价技术的发展前景。     

流域水资源丰富度评价的MFP模型及应用

水资源系统与许多因素有关,如各种水资源量、人口、社会经济发展指标等,它们共同组成了一个典型的复杂非线性系统。以最大流原理为基础,导出了描述水资源系统的信息动力学演化方程,建立了水资源评价的信息动力学模型,运用信息动力学模型建立了评价标准。该模型无需人为给定参数,客观性强,操作简便。最后运用理论模型对辽西沿海诸河流域水资源丰富度进行评价分析,得到各流域的丰富度状况,并与其它模型评定结果做出了比较,结果表明该方法具有较好的合理性和可操作性。由于该模型从一定程度上体现了水资源丰富度系统的演化动力学机理和水资源系统时空演变特性。因此,不仅在评价上有较大的优越性,在水资源丰富度发展变化状态的预测上也具有潜力。     

System dynamics modelling of hybrid renewable energy systems and combined heating and power generator

The role of energy in the present world is critical in terms of both economical development and environmental impact. Renewable energy sources are considered essential in addressing these challenges. As a result, a growing number of organisations have been adopting hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) to reduce their environmental impact and sometimes take advantage of various incentives. When a HRES is being planned, the ability to model a HRES can provide an organisation with numerous benefits including the capability of optimising sub-systems, predicting performances and carrying out sensitivity analysis. In this paper, we present a comprehensive system dynamics model of HRES and combined heating and power (CHP) generator. Data from a manufacturing company using HRES and CHP generator are used to validate the model and discuss important findings. The results illustrate that the components of a HRES can have conflicting effects on cost and environmental benefits; thus, there is a need for an organisation to make trade-off decisions. The model can be a platform to further simulate and study the composition and operating strategies of organisations that are venturing to adopt new or additional HRESs.     

多情景视角下京津冀碳排放达峰预测与减排潜力

京津冀地区是中国核心经济区的重要组成部分,也是碳排放重点区域,其碳排放早日达峰对实现国家达峰目标尤为关键。通过分析碳排放及影响因素的关系,构建碳排放系统动力学模型,并设置六种情景方案,模拟预测其对北京、天津和河北碳达峰时间、峰值及减排潜力的影响。结果显示：（1）基准情景下,北京已经实现碳达峰,天津预计2023年碳达峰,而河北则难在2035年前达峰。（2）协调发展情景即综合调控政策,较单一措施情景,各地区碳减排效果最优;其中,北京2020—2030年碳排放较基准情景下降13.52%,天津碳达峰可提前至2021年,河北则可在2030年达到峰值。（3）单一措施情景下,环保情景对北京碳减排作用最显著,而节能减排情景则是实现天津与河北碳达峰的最佳发展模式。