Dynamic Evaluation on Regional Tourism Competitiveness： Urban Agglomeration of Shandong Peninsula, Eastern China

The article establishes the appraisal index system for entire urban agglomeration and its interior cities individually, concretely including five aspects： driving forces for tourism development, the level of tourism development, tourism impacts, tourism economic connection and tourism contributions of different cities to the whole urban agglomeration. As tourism competitiveness has the characteristics of comprehensiveness, systematicness and dynamicness, the article attempts to apply the structural prediction means of system dynamics to evaluating tourism competitiveness, aiming to provide some research methods and analysis ideas for tourism competitiveness measurement and trends analysis in urban agglomeration. Taking Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration as the study area, the article simulates and analyzes the tourism competitiveness trend of the whole region and its interior cities from 2005 to 2020, and the result reflects that integrated development and regional combination of tourism are important means to upgrade tourism competitiveness in this region.     

Improving the Integration of Recreation Management with Management of Other Natural Resources by Applying Concepts of Scale from Ecology

In this article, we examine how issues of scale affect the integration of recreation management with the management of other natural resources on public lands. We present two theories used to address scale issues in ecology and explore how they can improve the two most widely applied recreation-planning frameworks. The theory of patch dynamics and hierarchy theory are applied to the recreation opportunity spectrum (ROS) and the limits of acceptable change (LAC) recreation-planning frameworks. These frameworks have been widely adopted internationally, and improving their ability to integrate with other aspects of natural resource management has significant social and conservation implications. We propose that incorporating ecologic criteria and scale concepts into these recreation-planning frameworks will improve the foundation for integrated land management by resolving issues of incongruent boundaries, mismatched scales, and multiple-scale analysis. Specifically, we argue that whereas the spatially explicit process of the ROS facilitates integrated decision making, its lack of ecologic criteria, broad extent, and large patch size decrease its usefulness for integration at finer scales. The LAC provides explicit considerations for weighing competing values, but measurement of recreation disturbances within an LAC analysis is often done at too fine a grain and at too narrow an extent for integration with other recreation and resource concerns. We suggest that planners should perform analysis at multiple scales when making management decisions that involve trade-offs among competing values. The United States Forest Service is used as an example to discuss how resource-management agencies can improve this integration.     

Forest Dynamics in the Eastern Ghats of Tamil Nadu,India

The primary deciduous forests in the Eastern Ghats (EG) of Tamil Nadu (TN) India have undergone many changes owing to various need-based forest managements, such as timber extraction for industry, railway sleepers, charcoal, and forest clearance for hydroelectric projects and agriculture, during preindependence and postindependence periods (i.e., from 1800 to 1980). The enactment of a forest conservation act during the 1980s changed the perception of forest managers from utilization to conservation. This study was taken up to assess the forests dynamics in the EG of TN spatially between 1990 and 2003 and nonspatially between 1900 and the 1980s. Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Indian Remote Sensing satellite (IRS) 1D Linear Imaging and Self Scanning (LISS III) data were used to assess forests during 1990 and 2003, respectively. Field floristic survey and secondary data (such as published literature, floras, books, and forest working plans) were used to assess the forest dynamics in terms of forest type and species composition among the preindependence period, the postindependence period, and the present (i.e., before and after 1980). The satellite data analysis revealed a considerable amount of changes in all forest types during the 13 years. The comparison of species composition and forest types between the past and present revealed that need-based forest management along with anthropogenic activity have altered the primary deciduous forest in to secondary and postextraction secondary forests such as southern thorn and southern thorn scrub forests in the middle [400–900 m above mean sea level (MSL)] and lower slopes (<400 m MSL). However, the evergreen forests present at the upper slope (>900 m MSL) and plateau seemed not to be much affected by the forest management. The changes estimated by the satellite data processing in the major forest types such as evergreen, deciduous, southern thorn, and southern thorn scrub are really alarming because these changes have occurred after the implementation of a forest conservation act. The dependence of local people on forests for various purposes in this region is also considerably high, which might be a key factor for the changes in the forests. The results of this study not only provide an outlook on the present status of the forests and the change trends but also provide the basis for further studies on forests in the EG of TN.     

Renewable Resources and Economic Sustainability: A Dynamic Analysis with Heterogeneous Time Preferences

In recent years there has been increasing interest in the study of economic sustainability and its relationship with natural resources. This paper attempts to shed some light on the issue by taking into account the individual variations in time preferences for consumption and resource amenity. We characterize the long-run steady state, analyze its asymptotic stability, and explore the transational dynamics from any initial state. The welfare implications of the optimal path are also discussed.     

海莲红树林土壤CH4动态研究

对海南东寨港河港河口海莲红树林土壤CH4动态进行研究。CH4通量季节变化规律为春季>夏季>秋季>冬季,所有季节所有滩面其平均值为1.21 mg/(m2d)。不同季节CH4产生量平均值的大小顺序也为春季>夏季>秋季>冬季,所有季节所有滩面其平均值为8.28 mg/(m2d);土壤理化因子对河港海莲林土壤CH4产生率的重要性依次为全氮>NaCl>Na >Cl->SO42->含水量>总含盐量>有机质。暖季CH4氧化量高于冷季,平均值为7.06 mg/(m2d)。在所有季节所有滩面上,河港海莲林土壤CH4传输率的平均值为28.21%。     

代表性浓度路径情景下宁夏草地动态演变的预测与模拟

西部地区是我国乃至亚洲的重要生态屏障.因此,遏制由于长期过牧导致的草地退化,保障西部地区生态系统功能,促进西部地区畜牧业和经济社会可持续发展具有重要的研究意义.本研究以宁夏回族自治区作为典型区,收集了宁夏土地利用数据、自然环境数据和社会经济数据,创建了联立方程组模型,研究了自然环境条件和社会经济因素对草地过牧与退牧过程的驱动机制.驱动分析结果显示对于草地过牧过程,气候因素是草地面积退化的重要影响因素,人口压力也在这一过程中起着决定性作用,交通条件较发达的地区,人类活动较频繁,对于草地生态系统破坏也相对较严重;而宁夏退牧过程的主要驱动因素之一是区域原有生态环境,经济要素也是决定退牧意愿的重要影响因素,国家政策是退牧过程的外在推动因素.基于宁夏土地利用规划和1PCC公布的RCPs情景数据,设计估算了规划情景和气候情景下的土地利用需求,然后基于草地动态演变的驱动机理,本文应用土地系统动态(DLS)模拟系统预测了2010-2030年在RCPs情景和规划情景下研究区域草地面积和草地质量的空间分布特征和变化趋势.研究结果表明,规划情景下,研究区域草地面积随时间呈逐渐减少的态势,AIM气候模式下草地面积的变化态势与规划情景相似,但是减少的幅度比规划情景小,而MESSAGE气候模式情景下草地面积变化呈先减少后有小幅增加的态势.三种情景下,草地面积减少的区域主要集中在低密度草区,部分是在中密度草区.总的来看,无论是哪种情景,未来2010-2030年过牧与退牧这种相逆的现象不断减弱,但是并没有消失.这些研究结论将为西部干旱区生态环境保护、草地资源开发利用与保护、畜牧业发展规划提供重要的决策参考信息.     

Number concentration and size distributions of submicron particles in Jinan urban area： Characteristics in summer and winter

The aerosol number concentration and size distribution were measured with the newly developed Wide-range Particle Spectrometer in summer and winter of 2006 at the urban site of Jinan City.Here reported the characteristics of fine particles of the different observation seasons.Relative high number concentrations for the particles in the diameter range of 10-500 nm were observed in both seasons.It was found that the dominant number distributed in particle diameter smaller than 100 nm and the percentage over the number concentration of all air particles is much higher than what has been measured in other urban sites over the world.The number mean diameter in summer was much smaller than in winter,strongly suggesting the different origin of ultrafine particles in different seasons.That is, particles in ultrafine mode mainly came from nucleation and new particle formation in summer while from traffic emission in winter. The diurnal variation also supported this point.Number concentration in the diameter range of 10-200 nm got their peak values at noontime,well correlated with the mixing ratio of SO_2 and the intensity of solar radiation in summer.While in winter,those in the same diameter range showed the main peaks during the traffic hours happened in the morning and evening.     

Population dynamics during startup of thermophilic anaerobic digesters: The mixing factor

Two thermophilic digesters were inoculated with manure and started-up under mixed and stagnant conditions. The Archaea in the mixed digester (A) were dominated by hydrogenotrophic Methanobateriaceae (61%) with most of the methane being produced via syntrophic pathways. Methanosarcinales (35%) were the only acetoclastic methanogens present. Acetate dissipation seems to depend on balanced hydrogenotrophic-to-acetotrophic abundance, which in turn was statistically correlated to free ammonia levels. Relative abundance of bacterial community was associated with the loading rate. However, in the absence of mixing (digester B), the relationship between microbial composition and operating parameters was not discernible. This was attributed to the development of microenvironments where environmental conditions are significantly different from average measured parameters. The impact of microenvironments was accentuated by the use of a non-acclimated seed that lacks adequate propionate degraders. Failure to disperse the accumulated propionate, and other organics, created high concentration niches where competitive and inhibiting conditions developed and favored undesired genera, such as Halobacteria (65% in B). As a result, digester B experienced higher acid levels and lower allowable loading rate. Mixing was found necessary to dissipate potential inhibitors, and improve stability and loading capacity, particularly when a non-acclimated seed, often lacking balanced thermophilic microflora, is used.     

Effects of surrounding land use and water depth on seagrass dynamics relative to a catastrophic algal bloom

Seagrasses are the foundation of many coastal ecosystems and are in global decline because of anthropogenic impacts. For the Indian River Lagoon (Florida, U.S.A.), we developed competing multistate statistical models to quantify how environmental factors (surrounding land use, water depth, and time [year]) influenced the variability of seagrass state dynamics from 2003 to 2014 while accounting for time‐specific detection probabilities that quantified our ability to determine seagrass state at particular locations and times. We classified seagrass states (presence or absence) at 764 points with geographic information system maps for years when seagrass maps were available and with aerial photographs when seagrass maps were not available. We used 4 categories (all conservation, mostly conservation, mostly urban, urban) to describe surrounding land use within sections of lagoonal waters, usually demarcated by land features that constricted these waters. The best models predicted that surrounding land use, depth, and year would affect transition and detection probabilities. Sections of the lagoon bordered by urban areas had the least stable seagrass beds and lowest detection probabilities, especially after a catastrophic seagrass die‐off linked to an algal bloom. Sections of the lagoon bordered by conservation lands had the most stable seagrass beds, which supports watershed conservation efforts. Our results show that a multistate approach can empirically estimate state‐transition probabilities as functions of environmental factors while accounting for state‐dependent differences in seagrass detection probabilities as part of the overall statistical inference procedure.     

Long-term drivers of persistence and colonization dynamics in spatially structured amphibian populations

Many organisms live in networks of local populations connected by dispersing individuals, called spatially structured populations (SSPs), where the long-term persistence of the entire network is determined by the balance between 2 processes acting at the scale of local populations: extinction and colonization. When multiple threats act on an SSP, a comparison of the different factors determining local extinctions and colonizations is essential to plan sound conservation actions. We assessed the drivers of long-term population dynamics of multiple amphibian species at the regional scale. We used dynamic occupancy models within a Bayesian framework to identify the factors determining persistence and colonization of local populations. Because connectivity among patches is fundamental to SSPs dynamics, we considered 2 measures of connectivity acting on each focal patch: incidence of the focal species and incidence of invasive crayfish. We used meta-analysis to summarize the effect of different drivers at the community level. Persistence and colonization of local populations were jointly determined by factors acting at different scales. Persistence probability was positively related to the area and the permanence of wetlands, whereas it was negatively related to occurrence of fish. Colonization probability was highest in semipermanent wetlands and in sites with a high incidence of the focal species in nearby sites, whereas it showed a negative relationship with the incidence of invasive crayfish in the landscape. By analyzing long-term data on amphibian population dynamics, we found a strong effect of some classic features commonly used in SSP studies, such as patch area and focal species incidence. The presence of an invasive non-native species at the landscape scale emerged as one of the strongest drivers of colonization dynamics, suggesting that studies on SSPs should consider different connectivity measures more frequently, such as the incidence of predators, especially when dealing with biological invasions.