Relative Importance of Reproductive Biology and Establishment Ecology for Persistence of a Rare Shrub in a Fragmented Landscape

Abstract:  Verticordia fimbrilepis (Turcz) ssp. fimbrilepis (Myrtaceae) is an endangered shrub that occurs in a number of populations varying in size and landscape context. We compared the importance of factors associated with its reproductive biology with that of factors influencing the regeneration niche in survival of small, isolated populations in contrasting habitat fragments. Small populations on road verges had equal or greater diversity of insect visitors to flowers, rates of pollination, and seed production compared with larger populations in conservation reserves. V. fimbrilepis seeds remained dormant in the soil for at least 30 months, and germination was stimulated by smoke. Plants were killed by fire, but mass recruitment from soil-stored seed reserves occurred in the first and second winters following fire. Our studies showed some seedling recruitment between fires, but this was strongly related to the availability of competition-free establishment sites. Whether this is enough to replace older plants as they die and thereby sustain stable populations is unknown and probably varies with the landscape. Environmental variation between fire episodes influenced population size. Drought increased mortality, but wetter years encouraged interfire recruitment. Most populations are declining and cannot recover without the occurrence of fire. In a fragmented agricultural landscape, fire suppression is the primary management practice. This may adversely affect rare species such as V. fimbrilepis and others with similar life histories that rely on a particular fire regime to persist. Population persistence is more likely to be related to stochastic environmental events than to factors associated with reproductive biology.     

近30年来洞庭湖地区水稻种植面积演变的影响因素分析

研究多熟制水稻面积时空演变及驱动机制对保障我国粮食生产和安全具有重要意义。综合运用Nich指数和地理探测器模型,探讨了洞庭湖地区1987—2017年一季稻和双季稻种植面积的时空动态变化及主要影响因素。结果表明：（1）近30年来,位于丘岗山地区的一季稻面积比例大于中部平原地区,整体呈上升的变化趋势;武陵区、沅江市等地在2007—2017年呈先降后升的变化趋势。（2）1987—2002年间一季稻和双季稻面积相对变化率呈西高东低的梯度型变化模式;2002—2017年间一季稻呈高—低—高的条带状变化模式,双季稻呈北高南低的变化发展模式。（3）1987年和2017年地理探测模型结果表明,有效灌溉面积、工业从业人员、农业从业人员、农林牧渔总产值对水稻面积影响程度不断加深。研究结果可为水稻种植结构调整提供参考依据。     

新疆自然植被对非对称性昼夜增温的时滞响应

为探究新疆地区植被活动与昼夜增温之间的复杂关系,本文利用2000~2015年归一化植被指数（NDVI）及气象数据,定量研究了新疆北疆、南疆及伊犁地区生长季日间最高气温（T_max）、夜间最低气温（T_min）变化趋势及植被对非对称性累积昼夜增温的时滞响应,通过二阶偏相关分析了T_max、T_min对新疆地区植被的影响.结果表明：北疆、南疆及伊犁地区昼夜增温均呈非对称性,昼夜增温空间异质性显著,北疆地区T_min增温速率为T_max增温速率的1.67倍,南疆地区T_min增温速率为T_max增温速率的1.59倍,伊犁地区T_min增温速率为T_max增温速率的2.67倍,伊犁地区昼夜温差缩小趋势显著.植被对非对称性昼夜累积增温时滞性呈现明显的空间差异,T_max、T_min对新疆地区植被平均滞后时间为（0.97±0.93）个月和（0.91±0.95）个月.南疆、北疆及伊犁地区针叶林、阔叶林及草甸草原植被受日间增温的影响,荒漠草原、典型草原受夜间增温影响显著,夜间增温影响范围更广.     

一种新型流管反应器的设计与表征

介绍了一种用于气溶胶生成机制研究的流管反应器（Jiao-FTR,J-FTR）的设计及表征.借助计算流体力学（CFD）模拟和实验测定,表征了不同进气结构和实验条件下反应器内流场的发展及稳定,移动进气管的喷射效应以及气体和颗粒物在反应器内的平均停留时间.结果表明,预混合段进气方式,主流流量,移动进气管结构及注入流量对J-FTR的流场发展以及气体和颗粒物的停留时间具有较大影响;J-FTR的预混合进气段具有使主流快速过渡为层流的优势,在对称进气条件下,当主流流量不超过8L/min,气流在进入主反应段之前可发展为稳定的层流;当移动进气管使用大内径的直管或径面十字型结构时,可以有效减小或避免移动进气管的喷射效应.以上结果不仅可为使用J-FTR开展大气化学和气溶胶生成机制研究提供重要的实验指导,也可为其他研究者设计FTR,进行流管实验提供借鉴.     

兰州北山不同植被土壤可培养微生物丰度变化特征及影响因素

以黄土高原中部的兰州北山为对象,通过野外取样和室内分析,动态监测黄土高原半干旱区两种人工林地生态系统的微生物类群分布规律.结果表明：试验区环境因子差异较大,林地土壤含水量、有机碳、全氮均高于荒地.全磷随植被类型变化差异不显著,随季节变化差异显著.土壤温度夏季 > 秋季 > 春季 > 冬季,土壤容重与有机碳、全氮含量呈显著负相关.不同植被类型土壤微生物丰度四季变化趋势为：细菌 > 放线菌 > 真菌的分布规律.微生物类群总数整体表现为林地高于荒地.回归分析显示：土壤pH值与细菌数量、放线菌数量及微生物总数均呈显著正相关（P < 0.05）,而与真菌呈显著负相关（P < 0.05）;土壤容重与真菌数量呈显著负相关（P < 0.05）;土壤温度与细菌、真菌及微生物总数均表现出显著正相关（P < 0.05）.通径分析表明,pH值对细菌数量的直接通径系数最大,容重对真菌数量的直接通径系数最大,土壤含水量对放线菌数量直接通径系数最大.研究显示,兰州北山植被恢复区土壤的有机碳、全氮、全磷等林地高于荒地,表明植被恢复对微生物的数量与种类有影响,且混交林的造林方式适宜兰州北植被恢复.     

Safeguarding Wetlands and Their Connections within Wetlandscapes to Improve Conservation Outcomes for Threatened Amphibian Species

Wetlands should not be considered as independent objects but as dynamically connected objects, collectively known as wetlandscapes. We developed a framework that analyzes the influences of wetland suitability and connectivity on amphibian distributions. We defined two indices: a Wetland Suitability Index describing wetland quality and a Movement Permeability Index characterizing wetland connectivity for amphibian population dynamics. These indices were calculated from raster datasets and time‐varying inundation estimates. The indices were used to define a wetlandscape and an amphibian model was used to simulate population dynamics within the wetlandscape. The framework was applied to the Nose Creek watershed, a highly modified wetlandscape in Alberta, Canada. Two amphibian species were selected with different habitat preferences: the Northern Leopard Frog that prefers wet habitats and has high mobility over land, and the Great Plains Toad that prefers terrestrial habitats and has low mobility over land. We found each amphibian species had a “preferred” wetlandscape, reflecting their life cycle traits and migration strategies which in turn were dependent on the hydrological and ecological connections within the wetlandscape. This study highlights the importance of investigating both individual wetlands and the wetlandscape and considering both wetland habitat quality and connectivity as non‐substitutable properties that act jointly, but differently, on population dynamics.     

矿井通风系统稳定性SD预测仿真分析

为了建立矿井通风系统稳定性水平评价体系,以常村煤矿为研究背景,结合常村煤矿多风井、大风量、高瓦斯等特点,从技术、安全、经济角度建立一系列完整的评价指标体系,利用层次分析法确立指标权重,并结合属性数学理论形成通风系统稳定性综合评价模型,通过构建的模型对其进行综合评价。以通风系统综合评价为基础,从系统动力学角度,对常村煤矿未来2 a的通风系统稳定性水平进行仿真预测,总结其动态变化规律。研究结果表明:通风系统总体稳定性评价结果为良好,属于较稳定水平。常村煤矿通风系统稳定性水平在未来2 a内随着安全投入的增加呈总体增加趋势,但随着矿山通风系统稳定性水平的逐渐增加,稳定性增长速率将会减小。     

组织因素对飞行员不安全行为的干预策略研究

为了对飞行员的不安全行为进行科学有效的管理,挖掘组织因素带来的深层影响,防止因飞行员不安全行为造成的不安全事件发生,运用系统动力学方法,构建组织因素对飞行员不安全行为的干预策略模型。以S航空公司为研究对象,通过调节组织因素中的飞行技术训练力度和奖惩力度等变量,制定不同的干预策略,运用VENSIM软件模拟不同干预策略的干预结果。研究结果表明:飞行员不安全行为的最佳干预策略组合为安全记录考核奖励程度、副驾驶转正/机长升职力度、监管力度、罚款力度、飞行技术训练强度的组合,到2020年实现不安全行为数量平均降低26%,在2020年改变干预策略数值,到2030年实现不安全行为数量平均降低54%。     

Capturing the dynamics of leader–follower interactions: Stalemates and future theoretical progress

Despite being based on the premise of a dynamic interpersonal process, studies on leader–member exchange theory often fail to acknowledge its dyadic and dynamic nature. We discuss how the interpersonal affect dynamics literature—and particularly its focus on the emergence of relationship patterns—may advance research on leader–follower interactions.     

A system dynamics urban water management model for Macau, China

Urban water resources have been facing significant pressure from population growth, urbanization, and climate change. A system dynamics urban water management model was proposed to simulate the dynamic interactions between urban water demands and society, economy, climate, and water conservation. The residents'' water conservation willingness was incorporated in the model and water-saving effects were quantified. The simulation results for Macau showed that population size was the main driving force for urban water demand. The change of temperature and precipitation has obvious effects on the landscape water demand. The water demand output is sensitive to the change in population, per capita demand, and temperature. Increased precipitation will reduce urban water demand and increased economic growth will increase water demand. By implementing integrated water conservation measures and improved water conservation willingness, water demand could be reduced by 17.5%.