概率火灾安全分析方法研究

为分析和评估火灾对设备、建筑物等敏感目标结构安全的影响,结合化工定量风险评估方法和气体爆炸概率安全分析方法,提出概率火灾安全分析策略和实施流程。该方法包括火灾危害辨识、泄漏速率计算、火灾后果模拟、频率分析、绘制频率超越热载荷曲线、结构响应分析等关键步骤。以某柴油罐区为例,通过频率分析和火灾模拟,绘制出频率超越热载荷曲线,假定火灾风险可接受准则为10-4/a,求得对应的可信热载荷为21 kW/m2,并以此值作为结构热响应分析的输入参数。火灾概率安全分析方法侧重于描述火灾热辐射强度及其对应的发生可能性,判定敏感目标遭遇的可信火灾热载荷强度和结构热响应行为,评估消防减灾措施效果,确保结构完整性和可用性,不评价工艺系统潜在火灾风险的高低。     

层状节理岩体模型冲击实验

为研究层状节理岩体在冲击荷载作用下的力学特性,实验采用水泥砂浆预制层状节理岩体模型,设计4个落锤高度对不同节理组数的岩体进行冲击加载。通过对冲击过程中载荷及加速时程信号的分析处理,得出节理岩体动态承载力与节理组数呈负相关性,压缩位移与冲击高度呈正相关性;当冲击荷载较小时,节理岩体动态压缩位移主要来自节理法向闭合,节理周边开始产生细微裂缝;随着冲击荷载的逐渐增大,裂缝逐渐沿节理面扩展贯通导致岩体破坏。     

Study of chemical supply system of high-tech process using inherently safer design strategies in Taiwan

The photoelectric, semiconductor and other high-tech industries are Taiwan's most important economic activities. High-tech plant incidents are caused by hazardous energy, even when that energy is confined to the inside of the process machine. During daily maintenance procedures, overhauling or troubleshooting, engineers entering the interior of the machines are in direct contact with the source of the energy or hazardous substances, which can cause serious injury. The best method for preventing such incidents is to use inherently safer design strategies (ISDs); this approach can fully eliminate the dangers from the sources of hazardous energy at a facility.This study first conducts a lithography process hazard analysis and compiles a statistical analysis of the causes of the fires and losses at high-tech plants in Taiwan since 1996, the aim being to establish the necessary improvement measures by using the Fire Dynamics Simulation (FDS) to solve relevant problems. The researchers also investigate the lithography process machine in order to explore carriage improvement measures, and analyse the fires' causes and reactive materials hazardous properties, from 1996 to 2012. The effective improvement measures are established based on the accident statistics. The study site is a 300 mm wafer fabrication plant located in Hsinchu Science Park, Taiwan.After the completion of the annual maintenance jobs improvement from September 2011 to December 2012, the number of lithography process accidents was reduced from 6 to 1. The accident rate was significantly reduced and there were no staff time losses for a continuous 6882 h. It is confirmed that the plant safety level has been effectively enhanced. The researchers offer safety design recommendations regarding transport process appliances, chemical storage tanks, fume cupboard devices, chemical rooms, pumping equipment, transportation pipelines, valve manual box (VMB) process machines and liquid waste discharge lines. These recommendations can be applied in these industries to enhance the safety level of high-tech plants, facilities or process systems.     

桂林尧山地区20年生桉树林土壤呼吸昼夜变化特征

以桂林尧山地区20年生桉树林为研究对象,于2013年1—11月,分春、夏、秋和冬4个季节对土壤呼吸速率及环境因子日变化进行24 h的动态监测。结果表明:(1)20年生桉树林土壤呼吸具有明显日变化特征,呈单峰或双峰曲线形式。4季土壤呼吸速率均在17:00—19:00达最大值,在次日05:00—09:00达最小值。白天土壤呼吸速率变化较大,夜间变化较小;(2)4个季节土壤总呼吸速率之间存在显著差异(P0.05),从大到小依次为夏、春、秋和冬季,自养呼吸贡献率从大到小依次为春、冬、夏和秋季;(3)土壤总呼吸、自养呼吸和异养呼吸速率与土壤温度均呈显著正相关关系(P0.01),土壤温度分别可解释土壤总呼吸、自养呼吸和异养呼吸变化的64.18%、15.43%和83.58%;(4)土壤总呼吸、自养呼吸和异养呼吸速率与土壤含水量间呈显著正相关关系(P0.01),土壤含水量在一定范围内对土壤呼吸起促进作用。     

青藏高原夏季500hPa纬向风昼夜差异及其影响

论文利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及中国142 个测站12 小时降水资料,采用线性倾向估计、合成分析、相关分析等方法,对青藏高原夏季500 hPa 纬向风的昼夜变化特征及其影响进行了分析。结果表明：自1950 年以来,高原夏季500 hPa 昼、夜纬向风均呈现整体减弱趋势,且减弱趋势夜间比白天明显,纬向风日较差呈增大趋势。高原昼、夜纬向风在1967 年均存在减弱突变,纬向风日较差存在1965 年的减小突变和1975 年的增大突变,纬向风日较差具有4~6 a 及16~23 a 的显著周期。高原昼夜纬向风异常,使得高原东侧及其以东地区出现异常的上升或下沉气流,且高原纬向风减弱时,长江以北的我国大部分地区降水偏少,长江以南地区降水偏多,降水对高原纬向风异常响应的昼夜差异主要表现在四川盆地东西部降水异常的昼夜差异上。     

零价纳米铁吸附去除水中六价铬的研究

利用液相还原法制备的零价纳米铁(nZVI)进行了去除水中Cr(Ⅵ)的实验研究.结果表明,nZVI对Cr的去除效果明显优于还原铁粉和粉末活性碳;pH值越小、初始Cr浓度越低、nZVI放置时间越短及投加量越大均有利于水中Cr(Ⅵ)的去除,最佳去除率近100%;反应动力学拟合结果表明,nZVI去除六价铬符合准二级动力学模型;反应后nZVI颗粒的扫描电镜及电子能谱结果显示Cr占12.02%(wt),结合对反应溶液中Cr(Ⅵ)和Cr(Ⅲ)分析,说明吸附、还原与共沉淀可能是nZVI去除水中六价铬的主要机理.     

可散式弹链拉断力变化规律研究

目的 确保弹箱内的弹链(抱弹状态)在库房存放一段时间后依然稳定供弹,描述可散式弹链拉断力在不同温度环境下的变化规律.方法 应用环境作用动力学理论,建立可散式弹链的拉断力变化微分方程,求解可散式弹链的拉断力变化微分方程,得到可散式弹链拉断力变化规律的微分方程通解,再通过高温加速试验数据,求得可散式弹链拉断力变化规律的微分...     

广州城区夏季大气颗粒物数浓度谱分布特征

于2013年6月2日—7月15日,利用扫描迁移性粒谱仪(SMPS)对广州城区大气17～800 nm的粒子谱进行了连续观测,同时结合在线小时ρ(PM_2.5)及气象数据,对颗粒物污染特征进行了分析. 结果表明:观测期间,凝结核模态粒子、爱根核模态粒子、积聚模态粒子的数浓度范围分别为68～7 687、1 009～47 724、238～14 781 cm-3.平均数浓度谱及体积谱均呈单峰分布,峰值分别出现在50和300 nm左右. 根据双模态对数正态分布模型对平均数浓度谱拟合的结果可知,爱根核模态粒子和积聚核模态粒子的几何平均粒径分别为48和144 nm. 颗粒物数浓度及其谱分布日变化特征明显,在交通高峰及太阳辐射较强的时间段均出现峰值. 在观测阶段,粒子增长现象频繁发生,推测大气光化学反应引起的气-粒转化是广州城区夏季大气颗粒物的重要来源. 7月12—13日广州城区发生了一次典型的大气污染过程,ρ(PM_2.5)由18 μg/m3增至112 μg/m3,能见度降至8 km. 在该时间段,积聚模态粒子体积分数与ρ(PM_2.5)变化一致,R2(相关系数)达到了0.85. 后向轨迹分析表明,污染气团主要来自于西南方向,在陆地停留时间较长.      

煤矿井下安全系统脆弱性的系统动力学仿真研究

为了深入探讨煤矿井下安全系统脆弱性的影响机理,针对煤矿井下安全环境的复杂性和特殊性,建立了煤矿井下安全系统脆弱性的系统动力学仿真模型,采用变异系数法确定各影响因素的权重系数,通过文献调研和问卷调查,完成了煤矿井下安全系统脆弱性仿真。结果表明:设备系统对安全系统暴露度效果最显著;环境系统对安全系统敏感度效果最显著;员工系统和管理系统对安全系统适应度效果最显著。为了有效提升煤矿井下安全系统水平,煤矿企业需要通过改进设备系统（尤其是员工安全保障品）来降低安全系统暴露度,通过完善环境管理（尤其是尘毒治理情况）来降低安全系统敏感度,通过加强员工系统和管理系统（尤其是员工违规操作和安全监督检查）来提升安全系统适应度。     

Characteristics of N2O emission from Medicago sativa stands and its response to nitrogen fertilizers in the Longdong dryland Plateau北大核心CSCD

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is one of the potent greenhouse gases (GHG) that depletes the stratospheric ozone. Nitrogen fertilizers are considered to be a major source of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from arable soils. To investigate the characteristics of N2O emission, its influencing factors, and its response to nitrogen application in dry grassland in the Loess Plateau, one of the most intensively used agricultural regions in China, we conducted a field trial with two treatments including N0 (0 kg hm-2) and N150 (150 kg hm-2) at the Qingyang Loess Plateau grassland agricultural research station of Lanzhou University. An LGR-N2O/CO gas analyzer was used to monitor the emissions. The results showed that the N2O fluxes of the N0 and N150 treatments during the monitoring period were -0.0036 and 0.0118 mg m-2 h-1, respectively; the flux in case of the N150 treatment was significantly higher than that for the N0 treatment. The N2O emission flux has a distinct diurnal variation characteristic, which first showed the trend of decreasing and then increasing. Regression analysis indicated a significant positive correlation between the N2O flux and the surface soil water content at a depth of 10 cm. The N2O emission flux increased by 131.3%, compared with that during the non-precipitation days. At the same time, the N2O emission flux showed a trend of decreasing with the increase of the surface soil temperature at a depth of 10 cm. The daily emission characteristics indicated that there may be a significant underestimation of the N2O flux at the daily or longer time-scale, based on the N2O flux value measured at 9:00-11:00. In summary, the N2O emissions from the sown alfalfa grassland of the eastern Gansu are strongly affected by precipitation and nitrogen application and have obvious daily dynamic characteristics. It is recommended that the accuracy and representativeness of N2O emission flux data be enhanced by continuous dynamic measurement using the instrument. © 2018 Science Press. All rights reserved.