基于系统动力学的甘肃省碳排放峰值预测

针对经济结构以高耗能行业为主但生态脆弱的甘肃省开展碳排放峰值预测研究,基于对甘肃省碳排放现状的分析,将其分为7个碳排放行业,即电力、热力的生产与供应业,黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业,石油加工炼焦及核燃料加工业,有色金属冶炼及压延加工业,非金属矿物制品业,化学原料及化学制品制造业以及交通运输业。选择每个重点耗能行业碳排放量占比最大的子行业,分别为火力发电供热,钢铁,石油加工,铝、镁,水泥,合成氨及道路运输子行业进行研究。借助Vensim PLE软件建立7个子行业碳排放系统动力学模型,采用情景分析法设置快-慢模式、中-慢模式、慢模式、快-中模式、中模式、慢-中模式、快模式、中-快模式8种情景模式对甘肃省碳排放峰值进行预测。结果表明:甘肃省碳排放峰值出现在2028—2045年,为2.09亿~4.29亿t;同时考虑峰值大小和峰值出现时间及甘肃省发展现状,中模式为实现甘肃省碳排放达峰的最优方案。在此基础上,提出甘肃省今后要加大产业结构调整、能源结构优化、生产技术改进力度。     

基于SD模型的城市生活垃圾资源化处理模拟研究——以大连市为例

改革开放以来,城市化不断发展,人民生活水平快速提高,生活垃圾产生量迅速增多,垃圾污染已严重影响城市生态文明的建设。以大连市为例,运用系统动力学方法建立了城市生活垃圾资源化处理的系统动力学仿真模型,并进行情景分析。对大连市各种垃圾处理方式的处理量进行了预测,并预测了2种不同方案下大连市垃圾填埋场的容量和使用寿命,针对垃圾焚烧模块进行了发电量的预测。研究结果表明：大连市毛茔子垃圾填埋场四期到2016年底达到饱和,要提高垃圾焚烧的投入,大力建设垃圾焚烧厂,将垃圾焚烧发电作为最主要的资源化处理方式。     

内蒙古沙地森林草原过渡带中沙地云彬种群动态

沙地云彬是我国内蒙东部沙地森林草原过渡带的特有濒危树种,沙地杉林是陆地上非常特殊的森林生态系统类型。本文研究了沙地云杉的种群动态,建立了沙地云杉种群生命表、年龄结构、存活曲线和生殖力表,同时研究了沙地云杉种群分布格局及增长动态,可为沙地治理和沙地森林生态系统研究提供科学依据。     

基于系统动力学的矿产资源补偿体系构成研究

运用系统动力学方法构建了具有动态性、系统性的矿产资源开发补偿体系。该体系由矿产资源价值补偿子系统、矿产资源生态补偿子系统和矿产资源代际补偿子系统构成。运用Vensim软件绘制了各子系统的正、反馈流程图,并用灰色关联度分析方法构建了辅助变量影响度的数学模型,为矿产资源开发补偿制度的建立提供可参考的依据。     

Experience in establishing a natural standard for analyzing the dynamics of taiga ecosystems

Experience in organizing a natural reference area (standard) for studies on the functional dynamics of ecosystems in connection with paludification and forest-bog relationships is described. The essence of studies on ecosystem dynamics with the aid of natural standards and key plots is described using an example of the Yenisei region of Western Siberia. Arguments are presented for the necessity of using a differential approach to studies on the dynamics of nature and taking into account local ecological conditions while extrapolating the results of these studies to other geographic regions.     

Specific features of the oribatid fauna in high-mountain pine forests of the Eastern Caucasus in relation to altitudinal zonality

The abundance, structure, and distribution of oribatid communities in high-mountain pine forest biotopes of the Eastern Caucasus are described in dependence on elevation above sea level. The oribatid fauna of high-mountain pine forests proved to be characterized by high abundance, an assortment of dominants, and species richness. It was shown that, as the elevation increases, specific dominants typical of particular altitudinal zones appear in communities, and changes in the mass species occur. These species are stable in terms of their long-term dynamics, and zonal groups (communities) demonstrate a high species diversity.     

湿法烟气脱硫雾化喷嘴的数值模拟

用计算流体力学软件Fluent进行脱硫雾化喷嘴的内部流场的数值模拟,为喷嘴的优化设计找到一种准确、经济又快捷的方法,对加快脱硫设备国产化有一定的参考意义.     

Predictive Models of Lumbar Loadings When Handling Boxes

Back problems resulting from the compression forces on the intervertebral disks during manual material-handling tasks are an important problem affecting workers in various industries. The quantification of these forces using intradiscal pressure or biomechanical modeling is complex, time consuming, and costly, and these methods cannot be readily used in the workplace to estimate loadings on the lower back. The objective of this study was to develop a predictive model that would allow the estimation of lumbar loadings for lifting and lowering boxes using easily measured anthropometric variables and variables related to the task. A dynamic and planar segmental model and a model of internal forces at L5/S1 were used to determine the compression forces on the lower back. Two predictive models, a field model and a laboratory model, were developed to estimate the compression forces when lifting or lowering 3.3 kg to 22.0 kg boxes between heights of 15 cm and 185 cm. Both models were validated by an examination of the residuals. Their predictive performance was also compared, with the laboratory model offering a slightly better prediction than the field model. Thus, these equations represent a practical tool for a better planning of handling tasks in the working environment with the purpose of reducing the back injuries of workers.     

基于SD的装配式建筑施工安全监管演化博弈研究

为了有效减少装配式建筑工程施工安全事故,考虑政府监管部门与施工单位之间存在信息不对称,基于有限理性条件下双方互动关系构建装配式建筑施工安全动态监管演化博弈模型,并分析其稳定策略.采用系统动力学(SD)方法仿真分析在动态监管策略及外部变量调整条件下的演化博弈过程.研究结果表明:政府强弱监管的成本差、施工单位加强安全管理的...     

合流制排水系统溢流污染控制策略的系统动力学分析

为了探索城市合流制排水系统溢流污染的控制策略,基于合流制排水系统结构特征,应用系统动力学方法构建了溢流污染控制系统动力学模型。该模型分为污染源产生子系统、收集运输子系统、污水溢流子系统、污水处理子系统及受纳水体子系统5部分,每个子系统相互作用构成完整的系统动力学模型。将该模型应用于镇江市老城区合流制排水系统溢流污染控制规划,从排水系统的源-流-汇三方面(包括源头减污、过程控污、末端治污和综合集成),模拟分析各种溢流污染控制策略的效能。