Assessment of the small modular reactor (SMR) marketing using modified network dynamics-based system dynamics (SD) method

Following the export success of the South Korean small modular reactor (SMR), it has been investigated for the marketing strategy of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The information feedback oriented method for the social-business matters, system dynamics (SD), is applied to the assessment of the marketing strategy in which the forecasting skills are performed. Each element has the Boolean value as 0 or 1 in which the values are selected by the random number generation. If the generated values are higher than the designed value decided by the operator, it is 1. Otherwise, it is 0. The networking based dynamical modeling is discussed. The modification of the linear networking is changed by the SD algorithm where the feedback and multiple connections are added to the original network dynamics theory. This new method has shown the complexity of the marketing strategy, especially for the NPPs.     

Changes in vegetation persistence across global savanna landscapes, 1982–2010

We present a global analysis of the changing face of vegetation persistence in savanna ecosystems by boreal seasons. We utilized nearly 30 years of monthly normalized difference vegetation index data in an innovative time-series approach and developed associated statistical significance tests, making the application of continuous vegetation metrics both more rigorous and more useful to research. We found that 8,000,000–11,000,000 km² of savanna have experienced significant vegetation decline during each season, while 20,000,000–23,000,000 km² have experienced an increase in vegetation persistence during each season, relative to the baseline period (1982–1985). In addition, with the exception of the March–April–May season, which is mixed, the pattern of significant vegetation persistence in the Northern Hemisphere is almost exclusively positive, while it is negative in the Southern Hemisphere. This finding highlights the increasing vulnerability of the Southern Hemisphere savanna landscapes; either resulting from changing precipitation regimes (e.g., southern Africa) or agricultural pressures and conversions (e.g., South America).     

Numerical and experimental study on flame spread over conveyor belts in a large-scale tunnel

Conveyor belt fires in an underground mine pose a serious life threat to the miners. This paper presents numerical and experimental results characterizing a conveyor belt fire in a large-scale tunnel. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to simulate the flame spread over the conveyor belt in a mine entry. Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) tests were conducted for the conveyor belt and results were used to estimate the kinetic properties for modeling the pyrolysis process of the conveyor belt burning. The CFD model was calibrated using results from the large-scale conveyor belt fire experiments. The comparison between simulation and test results shows that the CFD model is able to capture the major features of the flame spread over the conveyor belt. The predicted maximum heat release rate, and maximum smoke temperature are in good agreement with the large-scale tunnel fire test results. The calibrated CFD model can be used to predict the flame spread over a conveyor belt in a mine entry under different physical conditions and ventilation parameters to aid in the design of improved fire detection and suppression systems, mine rescue, and mine emergency planning.     

Environmental and economic impact assessment of construction and demolition waste disposal using system dynamics

Construction and demolition wastes (CDW) have increasingly serious problems in environmental, social, and economic realms. There is no coherent framework for utilization of these wastes which are disposed both legally and illegally. This harms the environment, contributes to the increase of energy consumption, and depletes finite landfills resources. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impacts of two alternatives for the management of CDW, recycling and disposing. The evaluation is carried out through developing a dynamic model with aid STELLA software by conducting the following steps: (1) quantifying the total cost incurred to mitigate the impacts of CDW landfills and uncollected waste on the environment and human health; (2) quantifying the total avoided emissions and saved energy by recycling waste; (3) estimating total external cost saved by recycling waste and; (4) providing a decision support tool that helps in re-thinking about waste disposal. The proposed evaluation methodology allows activating the stringent regulations that restrict waste disposal and developing incentives to encourage constructors to recycle their wastes. The research findings show that recycling CDW leads to significant reductions in emissions, energy use, global warming potential (GWP), and conserves landfills space when compared to disposal of wastes in landfills. Furthermore, the cost of mitigating the impact of disposal is extremely high. Therefore, it is necessary to recycle construction and demolition wastes.     

Use of system dynamics for proper conservation and recycling of aggregates for sustainable road construction

A significant amount of mineral aggregates are used in constructing, rehabilitating and maintaining roads. As local (nearby) quarries get exhausted, aggregates need to be hauled from sources that are at ever-greater distances. Hence, over time the cost of trucking as well as the amount of emissions generated by trucking increases with a decrease of local natural aggregate stocks. The objectives of this study are to construct and utilize a system dynamics model of the depletion of a stock of natural aggregates due to pavement construction and maintenance, and determine the effect of using local and nonlocal aggregates, recycling and project cancellation (slowing growth) on the paving of roads. Long-term simulations are carried out with available aggregate stock, trucking distance and cost data. The quality of roads and a sustainability score, based on engineering, economic and environmental factors (emissions) are evaluated for different scenarios. An optimal combination of the use of local and nonlocal recycled aggregates, recycling and project cancellation is recommended. The proposed system dynamics model could be utilized by agencies to plan for the proper utilization of aggregate resources for road development and maintenance/rehabilitation projects.     

Control of exhaled SARS-CoV-2-laden aerosols in the interpersonal breathing microenvironment in a ventilated room with limited space air stability

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) highlights the importance of understanding and controlling the spread of the coronavirus between persons. We experimentally and numerically investigated an advanced engineering and environmental method on controlling the transmission of airborne SARS-CoV-2-laden aerosols in the breathing microenvironment between two persons during interactive breathing process by combining the limited space air stability and a ventilation method. Experiments were carried out in a full-scale ventilated room with different limited space air stability conditions, i.e., stable condition, neutral condition and unstable condition. Two real humans were involved to conducted normal breathing process in the room and the exhaled carbon dioxide was used as the surrogate of infectious airborne SARS-CoV-2-laden aerosols from respiratory activities. A correspondent numerical model was established to visualize the temperature field and contaminated field in the test room. Results show that the performance of a ventilation system on removing infectious airborne SARS-CoV-2-laden aerosols from the interpersonal breathing microenvironment is dependent on the limited space air stability conditions. Appropriate ventilation method should be implemented based on an evaluation of the air condition. It is recommended that total volume ventilation methods are suitable for unstable and neutral conditions and local ventilation methods are preferable for stable conditions. This study provides an insight into the transmission of airborne SARS-CoV-2-laden aerosols between persons in ventilated rooms with different limited space air stability conditions. Useful guidance has been provided to cope with COVID-19 in limited spaces.     

组合措施下政府与企业排污行为演化博弈

为研究排污企业应对不同惩罚和补贴组合措施的行为策略,将演化博弈理论与系统动力学方法结合,构建基于政府与排污企业双方的演化博弈模型.以政府和排污企业双方利益为核心,对其在不同惩罚和补贴措施下的企业行为策略和演化稳定性进行分析.结果显示,在静态惩罚补贴措施下,政府和企业策略行为无法达到演化稳定点,政府静态政策不会对企业合法排污行为产生推动作用.在动态惩罚补贴措施下,动态惩罚和动态补贴措施对推动企业合法排污行为更为有效,政府可根据排污企业行为制定双边动态策略.     

安徽寿县黑碳气溶胶浓度观测分析研究

为了研究中国东部典型乡村黑碳气溶胶浓度变化特征,利用2015年11月—2018年11月安徽寿县国家观象台污染物浓度及常规气象观测数据对该地区黑碳气溶胶浓度变化特征及其影响因子进行讨论.结果表明,3年间寿县黑碳气溶胶年平均浓度逐年递减,分别为2.84、2.10和1.31μg·m~(-3).季节变化特征显示,该地区冬季观测结果最高,为3.95μg·m~(-3),是夏季的2.9倍.日变化特征显示,日最大浓度值在春、夏、秋三季通常出现在6:00—10:00,而冬季则出现在20:00.从观测结果的日变化幅度来看,冬季的日变化幅度最大,日较差为1.53μg·m~(-3),春、夏两季次之,秋季最小,为0.48μg·m~(-3).由于人为活动影响小,寿县地区黑碳气溶胶的周末效应不明显.此外,统计结果表明,风向风速对该地黑碳气溶胶浓度的影响最大,西北风天气条件下观测结果通常较高,而其余气象因子的影响相对较小.     

深圳城市大气PM2.5中金属元素的在线测量与来源特征

大气PM_(2.5)中很多金属元素危害人体健康,且具有源示踪性,因此,开展PM_(2.5)中金属在线监测对污染来源分析和大气污染防治有着重要意义.本研究于2017年4—5月使用美国Cooper环境空气多金属在线监测仪对深圳城市大气PM_(2.5)中金属元素进行连续观测.与同步离线采样测量的金属数据进行比对表明,10种元素(K、Zn、Cu、Mn、Fe、V、Ni、Ti、Pb、Cr)呈现良好的相关性,因而用于后续分析.观测期间大气PM_(2.5)的平均浓度24.8μg·m~(-3),其中10种金属元素总浓度为0.72μg·m~(-3),占比2.9%.Mn、Fe、Cu、Zn和Ti的浓度日变化显示了日间高、夜间低的特征,表明受到本地人为源的显著影响;而K、Pb、Cr浓度日变化无明显波动,说明受区域传输影响较大;Ni与V日变化趋势一致,主要来源为船舶排放.主成分因子分析结果表明,观测期间PM_(2.5)中金属污染来源主要为交通和扬尘源、工业排放/废物燃烧和船舶污染,方差贡献依次为54.3%、19.8%和8.8%.     

建筑物影响下大气污染物扩散数值模拟方法的比较

利用计算流体力学软件Fluent6.3.26提供的大涡模式和国标推荐的AERMOD模式分别对方形建筑物影响下的大气污染物扩散进行了模拟,通过与风洞实验结果的比较,对各模式的模拟能力进行了评价.结果表明,大涡模式对污染物散布特征的模拟与风洞实验结果基本一致,对建筑物顶部、空腔区和尾流区等区域污染物浓度分布的模拟效果均处于可接受水平;AERMOD模式模拟结果与风洞试验结果偏离较远,尤其是对空腔区污染物散布的模拟能力较差,误差较大.与大涡模式Y/H =0平面流场模拟结果对比(H为建筑物高度),AERMOD模式对风场的假设未能客观地反映建筑物附近气流变化的基本特征,是误差的主要来源之一,建议结合大涡模式订正,提高模拟结果的准确性.