Sex-specific differences in site fidelity and the cost of dispersal in yellow-headed blackbirds

Male migratory birds tend to be more faithful than females to previous breeding sites, suggesting sex differences in costs or benefits of dispersal. In Illinois, greater site fidelity by male yellow-headed blackbirds (Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus) was associated with reduced reproductive success the following year for dispersers relative to non-dispersers. Dispersing females suffered no reduction in reproductive success the following year. Males that attracted few social mates, and thus had low reproductive success, were more likely to disperse, whereas females dispersed in response to low-patch reproductive success, regardless of their individual performance. Males that dispersed appeared to be successful acquiring territories because none was observed as a floater. The rate of dispersal by males in this low-density population was greater than in more dense populations where dispersing males may be less successful at acquiring territories. Despite success at obtaining territories, males that dispersed acquired territories on the periphery of wetlands where fewer females nested, resulting in lower reproductive success. In the second year after dispersing, however, males moved onto more central territories where they acquired larger harems. Thus, dispersal by males may be a long-term strategy requiring at least 2 years for benefits to be realized. Long-term success was enhanced because dispersing males moved to wetlands on which reproductive success was higher than on the wetlands they left. In addition to demonstrating that both individual and patch reproductive success affect dispersal decisions, these data indicate that when evaluating costs and benefits of dispersal, researchers should use a time frame beyond 1 year.     

Dufour’s gland pheromone as a reliable fertility signal among honeybee (Apis mellifera) workers

When a colony becomes queenless and without the possibility of requeening, honeybee workers initiate reproduction and lay male eggs about a week later. Assays in which two bees were confined in a small arena revealed that they establish a reproductive dominance hierarchy, i.e., one worker demonstrates greater ovarian development than her paired bee. Reproductive dominance is independent of relatedness, and can be established between full sisters, cousins, or random nestmates. A social environment, however, is obligatory, as singly housed bees fail to develop ovaries on the same time scale. Allowing varying degrees of social interactions between the paired bees revealed that olfaction of volatile bee compounds, as well as tactile communication, seem to provide the necessary social environment. Ovarian development was accompanied by the production of queen-like Dufours gland secretion in these workers. Especially notable was the increase in the queen-like esters. This increase was tightly linked to ovarian development and not necessarily to the dominance status of the bees in the pair. Thus, the occurrence of queen-like esters can serve as a reliable fertility signal. Advertising ovarian status may recruit helper workers with less developed ovaries (and which are less likely to successfully reproduce before colony breakdown) to assist their nestmates and thereby gain inclusive fitness. Revealing the role of Dufours gland secretion as a fertility signal adds another dimension to our understanding of how queen pheromones operate. The mandibular-gland secretion is a good predictor of dominance hierarchy, being correlated with false-queen characteristics but not fertility, whereas Dufours gland secretion is a good predictor of fertility but not dominance hierarchy.Communicated by R.F.A. Moritz     

基于区间概率优势决策模型的滑坡治理方案优选研究

滑坡灾害治理初步设计阶段的方案优选和科学处置,对于避免或减少生命财产损失具有重要的科学和工程意义。针对滑坡治理决策指标信息属性的复杂性、区间性与不确定性等特征,首先借鉴博弈决策论的Minimax算法优化思路,结合概率优势关系及粗糙集相关理论,提出滑坡灾害治理方案优选的区间概率优势关系决策模型,该模型考虑治理方案与理想方案之间的优势度及其属性值的概率测度,与方案属性值大小之间存在着等价关系;然后利用属性值优势关系求得权重量化值,同时基于离差最大化算法和推论2对治理方案进行排序和反演;最后通过工程案例仿真模拟进行验证。研究结果表明:优选方案可为滑坡工程项目治理提供借鉴和参考。     

接处警系统的可靠性研究

接处警的可靠性是应急系统正确、迅速、有效地处理应急事件,减少事故损失的关键,直接关系到人民的生命财产安全,也关系到社会的稳定。接处警系统是由接警、处警和事故后处理3部分构成的串联系统,任何部分的失误都会导致应急事故处理的失误。以接处警单元可靠性框图为基础,分析了接处警的隐性失误和显性失误,构建了单一、并联和表决逻辑的接处警可靠度及失误率的计算模型。对取自常州的实例进行了整理,获取了接处警的隐性失误和显性失误数值并代入接处警模型,认为3选2表决逻辑的接处警结构可以降低隐性失误率和显性失误率,并据此提出了提高应急系统接处警可靠性的具体措施。     

Air Quality Management: Participatory Ranking of Control Measures and Conflict Analysis

The ranking of air quality control measures according to a number of evaluation criteria and with the participation of a large number of interested publics is demonstrated. A pilot study for the South Coast Air Quality Management District of California serves as the reference point. Several methodological considerations are addressed, such as: (a) the enhancement of criterion priorities to account for the variability among the performance of the control measures when incommensurable impact levels are applied: (b) the derivation of alternative rankings according to the priorities of potential coalitions; (c) the assessment of the potential acceptability of a collective ranking given the degree of solidarity among participants with similar interest affiliations; and (b) the assessment of the extent to which the performance of specific control measures may override priority differences and lead to insignificant ranking differences.     

长期储存试验中敏感参数的灰色优势评价模型

针对储存试验样品量少和影响因素多等特征,通过对灰色优势分析进行研究,利用优势分析的优点,建立了储存试验敏感参数评价的优势评价模型,并将其应用于某类元器件的储存敏感参数的评价中。评价的结果表明：温度差为该种元器件最优影响因素．灯丝电流则为其储存试验中的敏感参数。     

The Precautionary Principle for Environmental Management: A Defensive-expenditure Application

The Precautionary Principle has emerged in response to the need for an effective method for dealing with risks and uncertainties in environmental management. In essence, the Principle requires action to prevent serious and irreversible damage even before harm can be scientifically demonstrated or economically assessed. Proponents argue that the Principle should be applied in situations where both the probability and value of irreversible damage are unknown. The lack of these particular data prevent a full cost–benefit analysis, but permit application of the Principle through the defensive-expenditure approach. How much would the community be required to pay to fund alternatives to maintain the environment and so defend existing levels of utility? Through the application of risk analysis and the stochastic dominance technique, a range of options and outcomes can be examined incorporating the using available information within a framework consistent with economic rationality. An extended risk simulation is applied to an environmental issue where there is a risk of serious and irreversible damage to the environment, namely, protection of the Barmah-Millewa forest-wetland in Australia.     

中国各省区资源优势与经济优势比较研究

分析了中国31个省、直辖市、自治区包括水资源、耕地资源、森林资源、气候资源、能源资源和矿产资源在内的基础资源优势度。对非物质性的气候资源采用气候资源综合指数法予以评价。将绝对丰度和相对丰度进行线性加权以比较基础资源优势度。中国资源优势差异明显。云南、内蒙古、四川、新疆、黑龙江、贵州等省份资源优势明显,由于资源组合状况良好,云南省资源优势最明显。上海、天津、北京、江苏、海南、浙江等省市资源优势不明显,其中上海市最弱。对资源优势与经济优势进行了对比研究。经济优势较明显的省份资源优势往往并不好,而资源优势较明显的省份经济优势却很微弱。经济发展重心与资源赋存重心显著错位。经济优势不仅受资源分布的限制,同时还受到劳动力、资金、技术和市场等条件的影响。资源价值补偿机制不健全等也是造成这种错位的原因之一。最后提出资源丰富地区如何发挥资源优势,而经济较发达地区如何降低或解除资源约束的相关建议。     

Population dynamics of farmland ladybug resources and dominant species in Nyingchi,Tibet, China北大核心CSCD

捕食性瓢虫是重要的天敌昆虫,有利于害虫的生物防治.为查清西藏林芝地区农田瓢虫资源与种群现状,明确优势种类及种群动态和规律,对林芝不同生态区域的青稞、小麦、油菜3种作物农田开展瓢虫资源调查研究,同时选取固定样地定期进行种群动态分析.结果显示:林芝地区农田瓢虫分为2个亚科4个族10个属,共13种,其中11种为捕食性瓢虫.主要优势瓢虫种类为横斑瓢虫、多异瓢虫、二星瓢虫.其中横斑瓢虫在全部调查样地中均有分布,在农田中总体优势度指数、相对多度为最高.3种优势瓢虫在不同作物中种群动态变化规律存在差异,其中横斑瓢虫虫口密度长期高于其余优势瓢虫,且与蚜虫密度曲线有较为明显的重合现象.横斑瓢虫种群密度峰值主要集中在6月中旬至7月上旬,但在不同作物农田中具体峰值时期存在差异.可见,林芝地区农田不同种类瓢虫之间有较大数量差异,在不同生态区域与作物环境下具有不同的种群特征,但是优势瓢虫种类与种群规律较为明确,可用于农田蚜虫生物防治;结果可为保护当地重要昆虫资源及开展生物防治提供基础数据支撑.(图4表6参23)     

洞庭湖浮游藻类功能群的组成特征及其影响因素研究

2013年3月、6月、9月及12月采集了洞庭湖11个断面的浮游藻类,并对所采集的藻类进行了功能群划分,结果显示,洞庭湖的浮游藻类可以分为24个功能群：A、B、C、D、E、F、G、H1、J、L_O、L_M、M、MP、N、P、S1、S_N、T、W1、W2、X1、X2、X3、Y,所反映的生境特征主要表现为对分层敏感、频繁扰动且混合程度较高的浑浊型中-富营养型水体.不同时期调查的藻类优势功能群存在明显差异,其中,B（中营养水体、对分层敏感）、D（较浑浊的浅水水体）、J（混合型高富营养浅水水体）、MP（扰动频繁的浑浊型浅水水体）、P（混合程度较高中富营养浅水水体）、Y（广适性）在四次调查中的优势度均>0.02,成为洞庭湖的绝对优势功能群,洞庭湖藻类优势功能群不同时期的演替规律为：3月MP+P+D+B经6月MP+J+P+D+B与9月MP+J+P+D+B+L_O+Y转变成12月MP+J+D+Y.CCA分析结果显示,洞庭湖藻类功能群分布受水环境因子影响较为明显.整体上,T、pH值、DO、COD_Cr、NH₃-N及TP是影响洞庭湖藻类功能群分布格局的主要因素.