Regional crop yield, water consumption and water use efficiency and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain

The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the most important regions for food production in China, with its agricultural system being significantly affected by the undergoing climate change and vulnerable with water stress. In this study, the Vegetation Interface Processes (VIP) model is used to evaluate crop yield, water consumption (ET), and water use efficiency (WUE) of a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)–summer maize (Zea mays L.) double cropping system in the NCP from 1951 to 2006. Their responses to future climate scenarios of 21st century projected by the GCM (HadCM3) with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenario (IPCC SRES) A2 and B1 emissions are investigated. The results show a rapid enhancement of crop yield in the past 56 years, accompanying with slight increment of ET and noticeable improvement of WUE. There exist spatial patterns of crop yield stemmed mainly from soil quality and irrigation facilities. For climate change impacts, it is found that winter wheat yield will significantly increase with the maximum increment in A2 occurring in 2070s with a value of 19%, whereas the maximum in B1 being 13% in 2060s. Its ET is slightly intensified, which is less than 6%, under both A2 and B1 scenarios, giving rise to the improvement of WUE by 10% and 7% under A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. Comparatively, summer maize yield will gently decline by 15% for A2 and 12% for B1 scenario, respectively. Its ET is obviously increasing since 2050s with over 10% relative change, leading to a lower WUE with more than 25% relative change under both scenarios in 2090s. Therefore, possible adaptation countermeasures should be developed to mitigate the negative effects of climate change for the sustainable development of agro-ecosystems in the NCP.     

卷烟制造的碳排放核算研究

基于ISO14064-l标准和IPCC 2006理论,构建了卷烟制造过程的碳排放模型,并对广州、韶关、梅州和湛江4家卷烟厂进行了碳排放核算分析,结果表明:(1)万支卷烟碳排放随着卷烟产量的提高而降低;(2)C02是卷烟厂最主要的碳排放来源;(3)外购电力和固定燃烧产生的碳排放是卷烟厂最主要的碳排放源;(4)卷接包、锅炉、制丝3个工艺段产生的碳排放最多;(5)耗能设备中空调系统产生了最多的外购电力碳排放,同时因蒸汽使用造成了最多的固定燃烧碳排放.     

兰州市工业能源碳排放强度及效应研究

运用容量耦合拓展模型对兰州市2003—2013年环境系统耦合度进行评价,通过核算兰州市2003—2013年各年工业碳排放量,分析了4类工业碳排放强度变化特征,并运用LMDI模型对碳排放效应进行了多维度分解.结果表明,兰州市环境系统总体质量水平较低,环境状态指数和环境耦合度指数较低;兰州市工业碳排放总量逐年递增,碳排放与工业增加值、GDP、人口数量和城市建成区面积等呈显著正相关关系;原煤、原油、焦炭和天然气是兰州市的主要碳源,人均碳强呈显著增长态势,而工业碳强、GDP碳强、地均碳强均呈下降趋势;能源结构效应和人口规模效应在低位值附近波动变化,而能源强度效应和人均经济效应均在高位值附近波动,且后两项指标累积效应显著大于前两项指标,总体发挥正向碳增长效应.     

电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法测定地下水中锰的不确定度评定

本文对电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法测定地下水中锰含量的不确定度进行了评定,标准曲线采用双误差拟合法,建立了不确定度评定模型,对测定地下水样品中锰含量的不确定度作了评估。     

环境-经济系统双向控制模型的辨识

运用系统模型的辨识方法,讨论了环境-经济系统双向控制模型的辨识问题,重点探讨了这类模型体系中的最优控制模型,其途径是采用大系统建模思想.即在对大系统结构分析基础上,通过分解把整体建模转化为易于处理的子系统建模,再通过建立关联模型,得到整体模型,并进一步简化和进行参数辨识.     

INTEGRATING SOCIAL BENEFIT COST ACCOUNTING INTO WATERSHED RESTORATION AND PROTECTION PROGRAMS1

ABSTRACT: Successful watershed management requires consideration of multiple objectives and the efficient use of scarce public and private resources. One way to address these multi-faceted issues is through Social Benefit-Cost Accounting (SBCA). SBCA is a systematic method of addressing complex social and economic issues relevant to proposed watershed management projects. Benefits of using this technique include: benefits and costs of watershed projects are better understood; politically sensitive issues tend to be put into perspective; and stakeholders' interests are placed on a level playing field. An example from Bogota, Colombia demonstrates how SBCA can be used to value the benefits and costs of a proposed project. By addressing the benefits and costs to all stakeholders, the design of watershed management programs can be improved to achieve goals in a cost-effective manner.     

环境治理工程评标的双基点模型及应用

动用多指标综合排序的双基点法，建立了环境治理工程评标的数学模型。应用实例表明，该模型可以为环境治理工程评标提供客观、合理的方法。     

京津冀地区大气主要污染物虚拟治理成本分摊研究

京津冀地区空气质量跨区域补偿机制欠缺,已成为制约该区域大气污染联防联控的短板.基于投入产出模型,核算了 2017年生产者负责原则与消费者负责原则下京津冀地区大气污染虚拟治理成本,分析了空气质量补偿主体及资金规模.结果发现,京津冀地区污染物排放具有较强的区域关联关系,说明治理大气污染不只要关注本地减排,还要加强不同地区间...     

生态足迹核算方法及其应用研究进展

近年来,生态足迹作为可持续发展的有效度量工具之一,获得了广泛关注。在参阅相关文献的基础上,系统总结了生态足迹核算方法及其应用特点和趋势,结果表明,（1）在核算方法上尚存争议,目前主要的核算方法有3种：传统土地足迹法;能值足迹法;投入产出足迹法。（2）从静态足迹核算朝时间序列足迹分析和动态情景足迹预测演化。（3）尽管在各个尺度上都有应用,但生态足迹目前仅被看作是交流工具,用于决策分析的意义不大。拓展其在企业及其产品系统的应用,将是其应用价值体现的一个突破口。（4）生态足迹作为一系列指标的一部分时,发挥作用更大。（5）生态足迹应加强与现有核算体系（如GDP）的衔接,增加其被决策者接纳的可能性。     

基于物质流分析的可持续发展方法探讨——以珠江三角洲为例

文章以珠江三角洲为例,选取区域物质总需求、区域过程总排放、区域总排放等指标,对珠江三角洲社会经济系统的物质流进行核算,结果表明:(1)珠江三角洲区域物质总需求、区域总排放年均递减率在7%以上,资源使用密度、单位GDP物质排放年均分别减少10.3%、11.4%。说明珠江三角洲产业结构开始升级,环境朝着利好方向发展。(2)隐藏流在各类相关指标中占有比例较高,占区域总排放的比例年均高达98%。说明推行减量化生产,提高物质利用率,进一步推动循环经济发展已迫在眉睫。(3)物质排放强度地域差异明显,惠州、肇庆、中山、江门历年均低于珠江三角洲平均水平,深圳、东莞远高于平均水平;IPAT分析显示,A呈上升趋势,T值呈逐年下降的趋势。总体来看,珠江三角洲发展循环经济具有极大的潜力,也具有极强的现实意义。