WATER SUPPLY IMPACTS OF NUCLEAR FALL1

ABSTRACT: “Nuclear winter,” more properly called “nuclear fall,” could be caused by injection of large amounts of dust into the atmosphere. Besides causing a decrease in temperature, it could be accompanied by “nuclear drought,” a catastrophic decrease in precipitation. Dry land agriculture would then be impossible, and municipal, industrial, and irrigation water supplies would be diminished. It has been argued that nuclear winter/fall poses a much greater threat to human survival than do fall out or the direct impacts of a conflict. However, this does not appear to be true, at least for the U.S. Even under the unprecedented drought that could result from nuclear fall, water supplies would be available for many essential activities. For the most part, ground water supplies would be relatively invulnerable to nuclear drought, and adequate surface supplies would be available for potable uses. This assumes that conveyance facilities and power supplies survive a conflict largely intact or can be repaired.     

基于CI指数的祁东县干旱特征分析

利用衡阳市祁东县气象站1960~2013年逐日平均气温、降水观测数据,计算综合气象干旱指数。以国家标准《气象干旱等级GB/T20481~2006》为依据划分不同干旱等级、计算干旱日数、干旱强度等,在此基础上统计干旱日的年、年代际统计并作了线性分析,并为应对干旱提出了自己的建议:祁东县干旱日每年均有出现,但不同强度干旱日发生频率不同,在全球变暖大背景下,干旱日等级越高,其增幅愈明显;祁东县的平均干旱过程数为2.5次/a,一年出现2次干旱过程几率最大,无旱过程的几率为9.3%;在统计年干旱强度时,选用持续时间最长的一次有较好代表性。近54a来,干旱强度年变化可分为三高两低,目前处于干旱强度较高期;祁东县大部分年份有季节性干旱,单季旱以秋旱为主,在双季干旱中,夏秋连旱居多,历史上夏秋冬连旱出现了三次;为了应对日趋严重的干旱,需增强人们的防旱抗灾意识、加大水利设置投入、推广节水农业和提高干旱监测预警能力。     

湖北省近40年旱涝轻重程度的次序确定

本文用旱涝指标(即H=P/E)式计算了湖北省解放以来各年月的旱涝指数,它对给定的时间和空间上的旱涝轻重程度具有明显的分辨能力,由此确定了历年各自然季节的旱涝轻重年份的次序。     

TREE RING RECONSTRUCTIONS OF STREAMFLOW FOR THREE CANADIAN PRAIRIE RIVERS1

ABSTRACT: Information regarding long term hydrological variability is critical for the effective management of surface water resources. In the Canadian Prairie region, growing dependence on major river systems for irrigation and other consumptive uses has resulted in an increasing vulnerability to hydrological drought and growing interprovincial tension. This study presents the first dendrochronological records of streamflow for Canadian Prairie rivers. We present 1,113‐year, 522‐year, and 325‐year reconstructions of total water year (October to September) streamflow for the North Saskatchewan, South Saskatchewan, and Saskatchewan Rivers, respectively. The reconstructions indicate relatively high flows during the 20th Century and provide evidence of past prolonged droughts. Low flows during the 1840s correspond with aridity that extended over much of the western United States. Similarly, an exceptional period of prolonged low flow conditions, approximately 900 A.D. to 1300 A.D., is coincident with evidence of sustained drought across central and western North America. The 16th Century megadrought of the western United States and Mexico, however, does not appear to have had a major impact on the Canadian rivers. The dendrohydrological records illustrate the risks involved if future water policy and infrastructure development in the Canadian Prairies are based solely on records of streamflow variability over the historical record.     

Water Appropriation Systems for Adapting to Water Shortages in Iraq

Climate variability and population growth have intensified the search internationally for measures to adapt to fluctuations in water supplies. An example can be found in the lower part of the transboundary Tigris‐Euphrates Basin where water shortages in 2008‐2009 resulted in high economic costs to irrigation farmers. Losses to irrigators in the lower basin have made a compelling case to identify flexible methods to adapt to water shortage. Few published studies have systematically examined ways to enhance the flexibility of water appropriation systems to adapt to water shortage. This article addresses an ongoing challenge in water governance by examining how profitability at both the farm and basin levels is affected by various water appropriation systems. Four water appropriation systems are compared for impacts on farm income under each of three water supply scenarios. Results show that a (1) proportional sharing of water shortages among provinces and (2) unrestricted water trading rank as the top two appropriation systems. The shadow price of water for irrigation rises from zero at a full water supply level to US$93/1,000 m³ when supply falls to 20% of full levels. Similar methods could be used to analyze challenges facing the design or implementation of water appropriation systems in the world's irrigated regions.     

干旱灾害风险评估的研究进展

干旱灾害风险评估是风险管理和减灾管理的基础,其成果可以为救灾减灾提供科学依据.对干旱灾害系统的复杂性与非线性以及干旱灾害风险评估的程序、方法模型与研究内容等进展进行了综述.在此基础上,展望了干旱灾害风险评估的综合性、动态性等发展趋势,并预测了进一步研究的重点.     

苗期玉米根叶对干旱胁迫的生理响应

采用人工控制水分的方法,研究了干旱胁迫下苗期玉米(ZeamaysL.)根系和叶片的生理指标,用以明确苗期玉米根系和叶片对干旱的生理响应。研究结果表明,苗期中度干旱胁迫处理条件下,玉米根系和叶片均表现出对干旱胁迫的生理响应,并各具特点。与对照相比,干旱胁迫使玉米根系和地上部的生物量降低,叶片中的叶绿素含量显著降低、叶片光合面积减小,根冠比增大。干旱胁迫使玉米根系比表面积增大,根系氧化活力和还原活力增强。干旱胁迫导致玉米叶片的光合功能降低,初始荧光升高,初始光系统Ⅱ(PSⅡ)的原初光能转换效率、PSⅡ潜在活性、潜在光合作用活力均受到抑制。干旱胁迫下玉米叶片和根系脂质过氧化作用增强,根系和叶片中的游离脯氨酸含量升高。     

西南地区干旱规律与节水农业发展问题

除西藏以外的中国西南地区人口、耕地和农林牧渔总产值分别占全国的19.2%、19.1%和14.9%,是我国十分重要且潜力巨大的农产品生产基地。干旱是制约本区农业发展的重要因素。文章分析了西南地区的干旱特征,揭示出该区季节性干旱严重、区域性干旱突出、干旱类型多、连旱频率大的干旱规律,提出对农业生产危害最严重的干旱类型是春旱、夏旱和伏旱。从自然和经济开发的角度,分析了该区干旱的主要成因是降雨分布不均、水资源可利用率低、水土流失严重和水利工程滞后。在此基础上,提出了提高降雨利用率、提高水资源开发程度及大力发展生物节水技术的对策,特别是农业结构调整、抗旱作物选用、节水农耕农艺技术和发展经济植物篱(埂)等生物节水技术。     

岷江柏林下土壤物理性质及其地理空间差异

对现存岷江柏分布区土壤物理性质的空间差异性研究表明 ,土壤容重理县居群最小 ,最大的为茂县居群 ,理县居群与茂县、马尔康、丹巴居群间有显著性差异 .土壤总孔隙理县居群较大 ,但其孔隙组成中毛管孔隙与非毛管孔隙比 (CP NCP)较小 ;金川、小金、马尔康和丹巴居群虽土壤总孔隙不大 ,但其孔隙组成较合理 ;茂县居群土壤总孔隙小 ,非毛管孔隙数量又大 .土壤持水量直接与土壤孔隙状况有关 ,最大持水量和毛管持水量理县居群最大 ,茂县居群土最小 ,茂县居群土壤持水量与其它居群间有显著性差异 .土壤自然含水量是土壤孔隙状况与持水能力的综合体现 ,0～ 2 0cm层土壤自然水量顺序为 :丹巴 >金川 >小金 >理县 >马尔康 >茂县 ,茂县居群与其它居群土壤自然含水量有显著性差异 .建议在干旱河谷区实施造林规划时 ,选择土体较稳定、人为干扰少、种植初期有水源保障的阴坡或半阴坡 .图 5表 3参 2 4