客户关系生命周期管理及其策略

客户关系生命周期理论的提出对服务经济时代的企业产生了巨大的影响,该理论在强调了客户关系存在周期性的同时,也提出了对客户关系应当进行阶段性管理;阐述了客户关系生命周期理论,并在此基础上提出了客户关系动态发展模型,旨在帮助管理人员更清楚地认识到客户关系的长期价值和对客户关系的各个阶段进行良好的管理.     

Estimating the Recreational-Use Value for Hiking in Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia

The recreational-use value of hiking in the Bellenden Ker National Park, Australia has been estimated using a zonal travel cost model. Multiple destination visitors have been accounted for by converting visitors’ own ordinal ranking of the various sites visited to numerical weights, using an expected-value approach. The value of hiking and camping in this national park was found to be $AUS 250,825 per year, or $AUS 144,45 per visitor per year, which is similar to findings from other studies valuing recreational benefits. The management of the park can use these estimates when considering the introduction of a system of user pays fees. In addition, they might be important when decisions need to be made about the allocation of resources for maintenance or upgrade of tracks and facilities.     

A transportation network assessment tool for hazardous material cargo routing: Weighing exposure health risks,proximity to vulnerable areas,delay costs and trucking expenses

The inherent risks associated with accidental releases of hazardous materials during transport have drawn attention and concerns in the recent decades. The aim of this study is to propose a tool for evaluation and comparison of the transportation networks which can be used to assess the routing options between origins and destinations of the cargos for their suitability for transporting hazardous material cargos by tanker trucks and to identify routes which provide lower accidental release risks, lower public exposure risks, and offer economical benefits. Each route segment of transportation networks were evaluated using specific criteria which included health risk and cost of delay in case of an accidental release of materials, trucking cost and proximity to vulnerable areas. Since, the health impact of hazardous materials differ depending on the characteristics of the material being transported as well as release quantities and atmospheric conditions; this paper aimed in providing a tool that can be used to estimate the impact radius (for health risks) after accidental release of hazardous materials by taking into account different atmospheric conditions based on the meteorological data and solar elevation angle. The Gaussian air dispersion model paired with ArcGIS using Python programming were employed to estimate the health risk impact zones by considering the meteorological data, and accordingly to analyze road segments for cost impacts (delay and trucking costs), and the proximity to vulnerable areas. The route assessment tool was demonstrated with a case study. The results of this study can efficiently aid decision makers for transportation of hazardous materials.     

Developing Metapopulation Connectivity Criteria from Genetic and Habitat Data to Recover the Endangered Mexican Wolf

Restoring connectivity between fragmented populations is an important tool for alleviating genetic threats to endangered species. Yet recovery plans typically lack quantitative criteria for ensuring such population connectivity. We demonstrate how models that integrate habitat, genetic, and demographic data can be used to develop connectivity criteria for the endangered Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi), which is currently being restored to the wild from a captive population descended from 7 founders. We used population viability analysis that incorporated pedigree data to evaluate the relation between connectivity and persistence for a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation of 3 populations of equal size. Decreasing dispersal rates greatly increased extinction risk for small populations (<150–200), especially as dispersal rates dropped below 0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation. We compared observed migration rates in the Northern Rocky Mountains (NRM) wolf metapopulation to 2 habitat‐based effective distance metrics, least‐cost and resistance distance. We then used effective distance between potential primary core populations in a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation to evaluate potential dispersal rates. Although potential connectivity was lower in the Mexican wolf versus the NRM wolf metapopulation, a connectivity rate of >0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation may be achievable via natural dispersal under current landscape conditions. When sufficient data are available, these methods allow planners to move beyond general aspirational connectivity goals or rules of thumb to develop objective and measurable connectivity criteria that more effectively support species recovery. The shift from simple connectivity rules of thumb to species‐specific analyses parallels the previous shift from general minimum‐viable‐population thresholds to detailed viability modeling in endangered species recovery planning. Desarrollo de Criterios de Conectividad Metapoblacional a Partir de Datos Genéticos y de Hábitat para Recuperar al Lobo Mexicano en Peligro de Extinción     

Using empirical models of species colonization under multiple threatening processes to identify complementary threat‐mitigation strategies

Approaches to prioritize conservation actions are gaining popularity. However, limited empirical evidence exists on which species might benefit most from threat mitigation and on what combination of threats, if mitigated simultaneously, would result in the best outcomes for biodiversity. We devised a way to prioritize threat mitigation at a regional scale with empirical evidence based on predicted changes to population dynamics—information that is lacking in most threat‐management prioritization frameworks that rely on expert elicitation. We used dynamic occupancy models to investigate the effects of multiple threats (tree cover, grazing, and presence of an hyperaggressive competitor, the Noisy Miner (Manorina melanocephala) on bird‐population dynamics in an endangered woodland community in southeastern Australia. The 3 threatening processes had different effects on different species. We used predicted patch‐colonization probabilities to estimate the benefit to each species of removing one or more threats. We then determined the complementary set of threat‐mitigation strategies that maximized colonization of all species while ensuring that redundant actions with little benefit were avoided. The single action that resulted in the highest colonization was increasing tree cover, which increased patch colonization by 5% and 11% on average across all species and for declining species, respectively. Combining Noisy Miner control with increasing tree cover increased species colonization by 10% and 19% on average for all species and for declining species respectively, and was a higher priority than changing grazing regimes. Guidance for prioritizing threat mitigation is critical in the face of cumulative threatening processes. By incorporating population dynamics in prioritization of threat management, our approach helps ensure funding is not wasted on ineffective management programs that target the wrong threats or species.     

Environmental cost of using poor decision metrics to prioritize environmental projects

Conservation decision makers commonly use project‐scoring metrics that are inconsistent with theory on optimal ranking of projects. As a result, there may often be a loss of environmental benefits. We estimated the magnitudes of these losses for various metrics that deviate from theory in ways that are common in practice. These metrics included cases where relevant variables were omitted from the benefits metric, project costs were omitted, and benefits were calculated using a faulty functional form. We estimated distributions of parameters from 129 environmental projects from Australia, New Zealand, and Italy for which detailed analyses had been completed previously. The cost of using poor prioritization metrics (in terms of lost environmental values) was often high—up to 80% in the scenarios we examined. The cost in percentage terms was greater when the budget was smaller. The most costly errors were omitting information about environmental values (up to 31% loss of environmental values), omitting project costs (up to 35% loss), omitting the effectiveness of management actions (up to 9% loss), and using a weighted‐additive decision metric for variables that should be multiplied (up to 23% loss). The latter 3 are errors that occur commonly in real‐world decision metrics, in combination often reducing potential benefits from conservation investments by 30–50%. Uncertainty about parameter values also reduced the benefits from investments in conservation projects but often not by as much as faulty prioritization metrics.     

Investigating the effect of compression on solute transport through degrading municipal solid waste

The effect of applied compression on the nature of liquid flow and hence the movement of contaminants within municipal solid waste was examined by means of thirteen tracer tests conducted on five separate waste samples. The conservative nature of bromide, lithium and deuterium tracers was evaluated and linked to the presence of degradation in the sample. Lithium and deuterium tracers were non-conservative in the presence of degradation, whereas the bromide remained effectively conservative under all conditions. Solute diffusion times into and out of less mobile blocks of waste were compared for each test under the assumption of dominantly dual-porosity flow. Despite the fact that hydraulic conductivity changed strongly with applied stress, the block diffusion times were found to be much less sensitive to compression. A simple conceptual model, whereby flow is dominated by sub-parallel low permeability obstructions which define predominantly horizontally aligned less mobile zones, is able to explain this result. Compression tends to narrow the gap between the obstructions, but not significantly alter the horizontal length scale. Irrespective of knowledge of the true flow pattern, these results show that simple models of solute flushing from landfill which do not include depth dependent changes in solute transport parameters are justified.     

Comparative analysis of anaerobically digested wastes flow properties

The flow curve of anaerobically digested wastes from different origins was determined through rheological measurements. Regardless of their origin, samples can be divided into two families: simple non-Newtonian liquids well modelled by basic power law below 10%DC and viscoelastic liquids with a yield stress, well modelled by a Herschel–Bulkley model above. In all the cases, the rheological behaviour is driven by both the organic content and the volatile fraction (organic content/solid content), indicating that anaerobic digestion tends to smooth the rheological characteristics of organic wastes, whichever their origins.     

基于主成分分析法的陕北地区可持续发展对比研究

基于可持续发展基本理论,选取60项指标建立陕北地区可持续发展评价指标体系,采用软件SPSS(19.0)进行主成分分析,分别对延安市、榆林市2000—2014年的可持续发展水平、可持续发展潜力和可持续发展协调度进行动态对比分析。结果表明延安市、榆林市发展基本趋于一致:可持续发展水平较高,但可持续发展潜力明显不足,可持续发展协调度较低;制约其可持续发展的主要因素在于资源发展动力不足、产业结构单一、环境的恶化及治理的低效。     

玉米秸秆生物炭对贵州黄壤持水能力的影响

生物炭具有丰富的微孔结构,能够影响土壤的持水性能,对植物生长和土壤中养分的保持有着重要意义。而土壤水分特征曲线又是表征土壤持水能力的一个重要指标。本文通过压力膜法测定添加不同比例生物炭的黄壤水分特征曲线,并结合van Genuchten模型对实测结果进行拟合,推导水动力学参数。结果表明,随着生物炭施入量的增加(0、5%、10%),土壤的田间持水量增加,凋萎含水量降低,土壤有效含水量增加。生物炭添加能够显著提高土壤的持水能力,增强水分的可利用性。同时,van Genuchten模型拟合结果同实测值高度相似,可以用作预测生物炭改良土壤的水动力学参数。