特大城市集群绿色发展与生态足迹关联特征

本文以成渝城市群、长江中游城市群和长三角城市群为研究对象,解析不同空间尺度下绿色发展与生态足迹时空变化特征,并结合耦合协调度模型、环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）理论探究绿色发展与生态足迹的关联特征。研究表明,长江经济带城市群2000—2015年绿色发展水平逐年提升,约16.44%的城市达到较高水平,空间上呈现“东部高、西部低”的特征。人均三维生态足迹增长逐渐趋缓,成渝城市群达到峰值（5.21hm²）后逐年稳定下降。长江经济带绿色发展与生态足迹处于良好协调状态,绿色经济的快速发展带动了耦合协调度的提高。绿色发展与生态足迹存在倒“ U”形EKC曲线关系,由于自然资源基础和产业结构差异,成渝城市群（拐点出现在2008年）绿色发展与生态足迹协调关系好转早于中下游城市群（拐点分别在2019年、2012年）。四川、安徽应作为降低资源消耗的重点对象,未来应进一步加强区域中心城市的辐射带动作用,拉动周围城市提高绿色发展水平。研究成果能为区域绿色发展与生态环境协同管理提供思路与理论支持。     

GEP核算：理论内涵与现实挑战

当前学术界对于GEP的概念内涵和核算方法仍在探索之中,而地方实践已然走在理论研究之前。GEP核算是生态服务价值的货币化评价,主要是为了科学认识生态系统服务的潜在价值,不等同于生态服务价值的市场显现;核算的出发点是为了更好保护自然资本,而非生态产品价值转化。GEP核算通过货币化评价生态服务价值,将自然资本保护更好地纳入经济社会发展决策,为完善生态补偿机制、进行生态文明绩效考核、引导人造资本和人力资本进入生态产业化提供重要参考依据。GEP和GDP都是流量,将GEP直接转化为GDP在逻辑上不成立。如何使GEP核算更好地服务于生态产品价值实现,需要在理论上厘清逻辑关联,在实践中明晰政策边界。     

生态保护补偿政策能否促进企业高质量发展——来自黄河流域制造业的经验证据

黄河流域环境污染与高质量发展已成为当前国内关注的重要问题,我国为应对黄河流域生态恶化带来的挑战制定了一系列环保政策。本文立足生态补偿政策并构建准自然实验,以 2005-2019年黄河流域 A股制造业上市公司为研究对象,运用多期双重差分法实证检验生态保护补偿政策对黄河流域制造业高质量发展的影响。研究发现:生态保护补偿政策的实施促进了黄河流域制造业高质量发展水平的提高且存在明显的区域异质性和产权异质性,具体表现在对黄河流域上游和国有企业制造业高质量发展促进作用明显高于中下游地区和非国有企业。社会责任承担和政府补助增加是生态保护补偿政策推进黄河流域制造业高质量发展的重要方式,上述研究结论在经过 PSM-DID、更换被解释变量、安慰剂检验后仍然具有稳健性。研究全面考虑了生态保护补偿政策在流域内不同区域发挥作用的渠道,有利于充分发挥生态保护补偿政策在黄河流域生态治理和高质量发展中的功效。     

安徽省城镇化效率与生态环境质量耦合协调时空演化

研究城镇化效率与生态环境质量耦合协调关系,有助于探寻两者之间本质联系,可为区域协调发展提供科学依据。本研究通过构建综合评价体系,测度安徽省各地级市的城镇化效率和生态环境质量水平,并借助耦合协调度和空间自相关模型,分析安徽省城镇化效率和生态环境质量耦合协调水平以及空间格局特征。结果表明:① 2005-2020年安徽省城镇化效率均值由 0.937上升至 1.055,有效决策单元数量占比77.3 %,空间上呈现以合肥、铜陵为中心向西北-东南方向辐射的特征;②安徽省生态环境质量指数总体呈波动上升的发展趋势,指数均值从0.217上升至0.413,且具有“南高北低”的空间分布格局;③安徽省城镇化效率与生态环境质量的耦合度和耦合协调度均呈现上升趋势,耦合度处于耦合阶段,协调度以中度协调类型为主,但城市间差异明显,制约了区域整体的协调发展;④耦合协调度在空间上表现出较强的正相关性,高-高和低-高集聚区集中在安徽省南部地区,低-低集聚区则分布在北部地区。为促进区域城镇化效率与生态环境质量两系统协调发展,政府未来应因地制宜制定发展策略,贯彻绿色发展理念,积极推动产业转型,通过优化资源配置促进区域良性发展。     

超网络视角下生态与产业的协同效应研究——以黄河流域枢纽城市为例

基于超网络视角系统地研究黄河流域枢纽城市2018年生态环境和产业发展的协同效应,结合QAP方法,对生态与产业协同发展的影响因素进行探讨。结果表明：（1）生态-产业超网络密度较低、节点之间连接不均衡。（2）制造业等第二产业是黄河流域的支柱性产业,但第三产业与生态环境的协同效应较大;此外,郑州、济南和西安之间通过联动发展能带动区域整体发展。（3）良好的产业结构和夯实的经济基础能促进生态与产业协同发展,水资源失衡不利于生态与产业的协同发展。     

Towards a long-term integrated monitoring programme in Europe: network design in theory and practice

Long-term integrated monitoring is an important approach forinvestigating, detecting and predicing the effects ofenvironmental changes. Currently, European freshwaters,glaciers, forests and other narural and semi-natural ecosystemsand habitats are monitored by a number of networks establishedby different organisations. However, many monitoring programmeshave a narrow focus (e.g. targeting individual ecosystems) andmost have different measurement protocols and sampling design.This has resulted in poor integration of ecosystem monitoring ata European level, leading to some overlapping of efforts and alack of harmonised data to inform policy decisions. The need fora consistent pan-European long-term integrated monitoring ofterrestrial systems programme is recognised in the scientificcommunity. However, the design of such a system can be problematic, not least because of the constraints imposed bythe need to make maximum use of existing sites and networks.Based on the outcomes of the NoLIMITS project (Networking ofLong-term Integrated Monitoring in Terrestrial Systems), thisarticle reviews issues that should be addressed in designing aprogramme based on existing monitoring sites and networks. Fourmajor design issues are considered: (i) users' requirements,(ii) the need to address multiple objectives, (iii) role ofexisting sites and (iv) operational aspects.     

生态足迹方法在县级城市的运用--以成都市龙泉驿区为例

本文以成都市1999年和2003年统计年鉴和龙泉驿区统计年鉴1998年和2003年的数据为依据,采用生态足迹的方法,对龙泉驿区1998年和2003年的可持续发展性进行定量评价,通过计算和分析,结果表明龙泉驿区1998年和2003年人均生态足迹均为赤字,且2003年比1998年的生态足迹赤字更为加剧,这反映出人类的生产、生活强度超过了生态系统的承载能力,此区域生态系统处于过度开发利用和压力之下,随着经济的发展,人口的增加,这种趋势还在继续加大.     

How does economic complexity influence environmental degradation? New insights from African countries

This paper seeks to investigate the effect of economic complexity on environmental degradation in 20 selected African countries over the period 1991–2014. The Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS), and Driscoll-Kraay estimators (DK) are used to capture the objectives of the study. The results suggest that economic complexity and economic growth enhance environmental degradation. Also, natural resources rents and globalization improve environmental quality. Furthermore, the findings reject the U-shaped relationship between economic complexity and environmental degradation. In addition, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test shows a bidirectional causal relation between economic complexity and environmental degradation. Taking into account the ecological deficit or ecological reserve status of country, it is shown that while the natural resource rents reduce environmental degradation in ecological reserve countries, they increase environmental degradation in ecological deficit countries. The results are robust when an alternative measure of economic complexity is used. Based on these findings, the paper suggests that the governments of African countries should take into account economic complexity when designing their environmental protection policies.     

Developing shared qualitative models for complex systems

Understanding complex systems is essential to ensure their conservation and effective management. Models commonly support understanding of complex ecological systems and, by extension, their conservation. Modeling, however, is largely a social process constrained by individuals’ mental models (i.e., a small-scale internal model of how a part of the world works based on knowledge, experience, values, beliefs, and assumptions) and system complexity. To account for both system complexity and the diversity of knowledge of complex systems, we devised a novel way to develop a shared qualitative complex system model. We disaggregated a system (carbonate coral reefs) into smaller subsystem modules that each represented a functioning unit, about which an individual is likely to have more comprehensive knowledge. This modular approach allowed us to elicit an individual mental model of a defined subsystem for which the individuals had a higher level of confidence in their knowledge of the relationships between variables. The challenge then was to bring these subsystem models together to form a complete, shared model of the entire system, which we attempted through 4 phases: develop the system framework and subsystem modules; develop the individual mental model elicitation methods; elicit the mental models; and identify and isolate differences for exploration and identify similarities to cocreate a shared qualitative model. The shared qualitative model provides opportunities to develop a quantitative model to understand and predict complex system change.     

中国粮食作物产量和木本植物生物量与地表臭氧污染的响应关系

当前我国地表臭氧（O₃）污染日趋严重,对植物生产力构成了严重威胁.本文综述了粮食作物产量和木本植物生物量与O₃暴露水平指标M7（7 h平均O₃浓度,09：00~16：00）、SUM06（每小时O₃浓度大于60 nmol·mol^-1的累积值）、W126（每小时O₃浓度在特定时段内用Sigmoidal函数加权求和值）、POD_Y［每小时气孔O₃通量高于阈值Y nmol·（m²·s）^-1的累积吸收通量］和最常用的AOT40（每小时O₃浓度超过40 nmol·mol^-1部分的累积值）之间的响应关系,并计算了相应的损伤阈值.基于AOT40的结果表明,导致水稻、冬小麦、玉米和大豆产量下降5%的O₃风险阈值分别为5.93、2.69、8.67和4.17 μmol·mol^-1·h,说明我国玉米对O₃的耐受性可能要高于其它3种作物;对于木本植物,杨树5个品种的熏蒸实验和17种木本植物的整合分析的结果显示,导致其总生物量减少5%的O₃风险阈值分别为12.20 μmol·mol^-1·h和10.87 μmol·mol^-1·h.此外,提出了未来相关研究应关注建立植物其它重要参数与O₃污染的响应关系与提高O₃区域风险评估精度,同时需要重点考虑如何将影响植物O₃敏感性的重要因子（如土壤氮素和树龄等）耦合到区域评估模型中.