黄土高原能源富集区水—能源—粮食纽带系统安全时空耦合协调关系分析——以榆阳区为例

黄土高原能源富集区是我国重要的能源基地和粮食主产区,其水资源匮乏使区域水—能源—粮食纽带系统可持续发展面临严峻挑战。为研究黄土高原能源富集区能源、粮食与水资源之间协调发展状况,本研究以水—能源—粮食纽带系统安全为核心,通过构建水—能源—粮食纽带系统安全评价指标体系,采用TOPSIS模型和耦合协调度模型,分析了典型案例地榆林市及榆阳区水—能源—粮食纽带系统安全水平及其耦合协调关联特征。结果表明：从水—能源—粮食纽带系统耦合协调关系来看,榆林市各区县水—能源—粮食纽带系统耦合度整体较高且近年来呈现缓慢下降趋势,耦合协调度呈现“北高南低”格局且近年来表现出轻微下降趋势。从榆阳区层面来看,榆阳区水—能源—粮食纽带系统耦合度较高,耦合协调度呈现由中度协调向优质协调发展态势,水资源系统制约水—能源—粮食纽带系统安全发展,能源子系统波动性较强。为协调能源富集区水—能源—粮食纽带系统可持续发展,政府应健全跨部门协调机制,因地制宜、合理规划产业布局,同时构建节约高效的资源管理体系,提升资源使用效率。     

系统动力学复杂性及其在海洋生态学中的研究进展

海洋生态系统具有开放性、耗散性和非线性等特点,可以借助于系统动力学方法对其研究.系统动力学研究一个不可回避的问题就是系统动力学复杂性.本文在简单介绍几种常见的系统动力学模型及其复杂性问题的基础上,系统阐述了当前系统动力学复杂性在海洋生物多样性的维持、海洋生态系统的物质循环、海洋生物群落结构稳定性、有害藻类的暴发、海洋污染物的扩散、海洋生态毒理动力学、海洋生物资源的开发与管理等方面的应用、研究进展及相关问题.在总结以上研究进展的基础上,本文对系统动力学复杂性在海洋生态学研究中的应用进行了展望.     

Biological control experiment of excess propagation of Cyclops for drinking water security

Cyclops of zooplankton propagated excessively in eutrophic water body and could not be effectively inactivated by the conventional disinfections process like chlorination due to its stronger resistance to oxidation. In this study, an ecological project was put forward for the excess propagation control of Cyclops by stocking the filter-feeding fishes such as silver carp and bighead carp under the condition of no extraneous nutrient feeding. The results of experiments with different stocking biomass showed that the propagation of Cyclops could be controlled effectively, and the water quality was improved simultaneously by impacting on nutriment level and plankton community structure at proper stocking density of 30 g/m^3 of water. The growth of Cyclops may not be effectually controlled with lower biomass of fish （10 g）, and the natural food chain relation may be destroyed for Cyclops dying out in water while the intense stocking of 120 g per cubic meter of water. In addition, the high predator pressure may accelerate supplemental rate of nutrients from bottom sediments to water body to add the content of total nitrogen and phosphorus in water.     

水-粮食贸易:虚拟水研究进展

虚拟水思想强调的是水资源贡献，量化计算是其深入研究的基本，而是否选择虚拟水作为战略政策，应该考虑由不同国家的资源贡献和生产技术决定的比较利益。社会调适能力要求社会针对资源的第一性缺乏做相应调适并谋求解决手段，以提高资源管理能力。为此，需要结合我国的水和粮食安全问题，提出用虚拟水贸易解决我国水资源和粮食问题，提高我国对水资源缺乏的调适能力。     

我国耕地生态安全评价及障碍因子诊断

耕地生态安全评价及障碍因子诊断是改善耕地生态系统状况、促进耕地可持续利用的重要基础。在界定耕地生态安全内涵的基础上,构建了基于PSR模型的评价指标体系,采用熵值法和障碍度模型,对我国耕地生态安全进行了评价。研究表明：（1）1996~2010年我国耕地生态安全水平总体不断提高,综合指数从0484 4增加到0626 9,安全等级经历了“临界安全-较安全”的演变历程;（2）压力指数总体上呈现下降趋势,状态指数和响应指数总体上呈现上升趋势;（3）长远来看,系统压力是影响耕地生态安全的首要因素,1996~2010年系统压力和系统状态的障碍度分别以年均533%和052%的速度增加,而系统响应的障碍度以年均802%的速度下降;（4）影响耕地生态安全的主要障碍因子包括单位耕地面积农药负荷、单位耕地面积化肥负荷、人均耕地面积、土地垦殖率、水土流失程度等。为了促进耕地生态安全水平不断提高,需要进一步转变经济发展方式,加强土地利用监督管理,降低经济增长对土地资源的过度消耗;大力发展绿色农业,合理施用农药、化肥;积极开展农村土地整治,加强高标准基本农田建设;加大环境治理力度,有效控制水土流失程度     

Bison and cattle grazing management,bare ground coverage,and links to suspended sediment concentrations in grassland streams

This study quantified the impact of bison and cattle grazing management practices on bare ground coverage at the watershed, riparian, and forested riparian scales within the Flint Hills ecoregion in Kansas. We tested for correlations between bare ground coverage and fluvial suspended sediment concentrations during base‐flow and storm‐flow events. We used remotely sensed imagery combined with field surveys to classify ground cover and quantify the presence of bare ground. Base‐flow water samples were collected bi‐monthly during rain‐free periods and 24 h following precipitation events. Storm‐flow water samples were collected on the rising limb of the hydrograph, using single‐stage automatic samplers. Ungrazed treatments contained the lowest coverage of bare ground at the watershed, riparian, and forested riparian scales. Bison treatments contained the highest coverage of bare ground at the watershed scale, while high‐density cattle treatments contained the highest coverage of bare ground at the riparian and forested riparian scales. In bison and cattle‐grazed treatments, a majority of bare ground was located near fence lines, watershed boundaries, and third‐ and fourth‐order stream segments. Inorganic sediment concentrations at base flow were best predicted by riparian bare ground coverage, while storm‐flow sediment concentrations were best predicted by watershed scale bare ground coverage.     

不同政策对农户农药施用行为的影响

农户不规范的施药行为是引发农产品质量安全风险最直接的原因,为规范农户的施药行为,政府颁布并实施了多种政策,但大多收效甚微。农户不规范的施药行为主要表现在过量使用高毒农药、施用过程中不按规定操作以及农药残留物的处理问题上,如何针对农户不同的施药行为制定相应的政策,以达到有效规范农户施药行为的效果,这是本文研究的主要目的。文章基于全国986个农户的调查数据,运用有序logistic模型,分别回归了不同政策对农户过量施用农药的行为、不遵守施药间隔期的行为以及在施药过程中不阅读标签说明的行为的影响程度,结果表明:强令禁止高毒农药、对违反农产品安全生产进行处罚以及对收购的农产品进行检测等命令控制政策对农户是否过量施用农药的行为具有较强的规范效应,但对农户在施药过程中是否阅读标签说明的规范效果不佳;农药施用技术培训、农产品安全生产宣传教育等宣传培训的政策能有效规范农户在施药前阅读标签说明,但对农户是否过量施用农药的影响不大;以市场为基础的激励政策对农户过量施用农药、阅读标签说明以及遵守间隔期均有显著的规范效果。由此提出,政府在实施命令控制政策的同时,应加强农产品安全知识的宣传力度,定期为农户提供农药施用技术培训;由于以市场为基础的激励政策能有效弥补命令控制政策的监管漏洞,从而更有效的规范农户的施药行为,因此要建立激励惩罚机制,对使用生物农药、施用有机肥等具有正外部性的投入行为进行补贴,对使用高污染、高毒农药的行为进行征税,充分发挥市场为基础的监管政策的有效性。     

Species-specific and context-dependant disruption of temporal population fluctuations resulting from hypereutrophication events

This study quantifies the disruption of zooplankton population fluctuations in relation to two magnitudes of fire retardant contamination events using artificial ponds as model systems. Population time series were analysed using redundancy analysis where time was modelled with a principal coordinate of neighborhood matrices approach that identified relevant scales of fluctuation frequencies. Analyses of temporal coherence provided insight whether population fluctuations correlated with system intrinsic or extrinsic forces. Responses to stress were species-specific and context-dependant. Contamination changed temporal structure in some species. These alterations were associated with an increased intrinsic control of dynamics. In some cases the magnitude of impact was unrelated to contamination severity. Some populations were less tolerant of pollution in the low relative to the high concentration treatment. Results suggest that population-level monitoring of degraded sites may be suboptimal because disparate population responses complicate the selection of specific sentinel organisms to monitor stress.     

Industrial and urban symbiosis in Japan: Analysis of the Eco-Town program 1997–2006

Japan's Eco-Town Program spearheaded in Japan the integration of Industrial Symbiosis and Urban Symbiosis, seeking to maximise the economic and environmental benefit from close geographic proximity of industrial and urban areas, through the use of previously discarded commercial, municipal and industrial waste materials in industrial applications. The program established 26 Eco-Towns around Japan. Approximately 1.65 billion USD was invested in 61 innovative recycling projects, with an average government subsidy of 36%. In addition at least 107 other recycling facilities have been constructed without government subsidy. 14 Eco-Towns primarily contributed to improving industry's productivity, whilst 10 Eco-Towns primarily contributed to improving environmental amenity. In 16 Eco-Towns the private sector was the most important actor supporting local government in the realisation of the Eco-Town, whilst in 9 Eco-Towns this was civil society. The availability of investment subsidies, the coming into force of ambitious recycling legislation with quantified, product-specific targets, access to the significant technological resources of the private sector, and widespread recognition of the urgency to act on environmental issues, all contributed to the success of the Eco-Town Program.     

生态旅游经济关系的二重性辨析

生态旅游经济关系是自然生态关系和社会经济关系的有机统一,两种关系并存于生态旅游经济复合系统中,成为生态旅游经济可持续发展的基础.但是,生态旅游经济关系在实践中出现了严重的变形,利益关系的冲突,正在使生态旅游经济越来越多地出现不和谐的现象,突破利益关系制约的瓶颈,重建和谐的生态旅游经济关系,正是解决生态危机的着眼点.因此,本文对生态旅游经济关系的二重性进行深入辨析,指出无论是生态旅游经济行为主体还是生态旅游经济过程,都具有自然生态属性和社会经济属性相统一的二重性,这些都决定了生态旅游经济关系二重性的协调统一.针对生态旅游经济关系在实践发展中的扭曲变形,只有变革传统经济学的发展观,以生态经济学和可持续发展经济学的理论为平台,对失调的生态旅游经济关系进行修正,还原生态旅游经济关系的本来面貌,即人与自然和谐、生态与经济协调、自然生态关系与社会经济关系统一的理想状态,才能实现生态旅游经济的可持续发展.