The global partnership for sustainable development

This paper examines whether foreign aid, together with other economic, social and environmental factors, contributes to sustainable development. It starts with an illustrative theoretical growth model where foreign aid promotes sustainable development by protecting the environment. Using factor analysis and newly developed estimation methods for a dynamic panel data model with endogenous regressors, the empirical section of the paper finds evidence that foreign aid has had a significantly positive influence on sustainable development in aid recipient countries. This effect is very likely to go through channels related to growth and resources as well as a technology channel with respect to energy intensity. This research has important implications for a post‐2015 development framework on international collective action with regard to a sustainable future.     

Rider preferences and economic values for equestrian trails

Recreational horseback riding is an important, but less studied, component of human interaction with the natural environment and often occurs alongside other outdoor recreational activities. Using choice experiment data collected from a survey conducted in Kentucky, this study assesses rider preferences and economic values associated with various equestrian trail attributes for daylong horseback riding trips in rural trail systems. Results indicate that while individuals have different opinions, trail attributes such as length of trail, scenic views, and travel distance from home all have significant economic implications. In addition, riders prefer trails that are restricted for horse riding only. Willingness to pay estimates of all attributes increase substantially when the travel cost to reach the trail is also considered. Policy implications on maintaining current and creating new trails in a multi-user setting are given, such as the opportunities for separating horseback riders from other users while still providing other beneficial attributes like options for longer trails and scenic views to all groups.     

污染排放对经济发展的负面影响研究

以1998—2009 年各地区的数据为样本,利用联立方程模型检验污染排放对经济发展的负面影响,以及宏观经济结构对这种影响的调节作用.研究发现,经济发展与污染排放之间存在相互影响的关系,经济结构与污染排放之间也存在相互影响的关系.当期经济发展水平的提高必然会引起污染排放的增加,但当期污染排放的增加会对今后经济发展产生滞后的负面效应.投资和出口对污染排放的负面影响存在调节作用,即投资比重越高,出口比重越低,当期经济增长引起的污染排放越少,污染排放的负面影响也越小.不过,消费比重对污染排放负面影响不存在调节作用.     

赤潮灾害经济损失评估技术方法

为有效应对赤潮灾害防灾减灾、灾后救援及管理的需求,在综合分析前人提出的赤潮灾害损失评估技术方法的基础上,参考赤潮灾害对受灾体的危害特点,结合实际工作的需求及在实际中可获取的业务数据,提出了赤潮灾害经济损失评估指标体系;根据灾害经济学理论,借鉴其他自然灾害经济损失评估的先进思想,采用市场价格法,分别建立了包括海水养殖业经济损失、滨海旅游业经济损失、赤潮灾害业务与应急监测费用和赤潮灾害处置费用的赤潮灾害经济损失评估模型;最后,提出了赤潮灾害损失评估的技术流程。     

基于改进灰色关联分析法在居民环境消费结构中的研究

依据平顶山市2005年-2012年的统计年鉴,平顶山市居民环境人均消费性数据,选取食品、衣着、居住、家庭设备用品及服务、医疗保健、交通和通信、教育文化娱乐服务、杂项商品及服务八大类,将改进的灰色关联度分析方法和综合评价模型相结合,建立灰色关联度分析模型,对平顶山市居民环境结构关系进行分析.结果表明:教育文化娱乐环境服务的关联性最高,食品、交通通信、居住医疗保健、衣着、家庭设备用品及服务、杂项商品和服务环境位居其后.     

基于灰色关联度的平顶山市耕地面积变化与经济增长关系分析研究

依据平顶山市1988年－2012年公布的耕地面积与经济增长关系数据,选取平顶山市耕地面积,人均生产总值,第一产业在生产总值中的比重,第二产业在生产总值中的比重,第三产业在生产总值中的比重作为分析因子,将灰色关联度分析方法和综合评价模型相结合,建立灰色关联度分析模型,对平顶山市耕地面积变化与经济增长关系分析。结果显示：第三产业最为影响耕地面积的变化,第二产业次之,第一产业再次之,人均GDP最小。能为区域土地利用的长期战略和短期规划提供依据。     

重庆市环境污染与经济增长关系的实证研究

基于环境库兹尼茨理论(EKC),选取1995年-2012年重庆市工业“三废”的排放数据和对应年的经济数据,对两者关系进行回归模拟.研究结果表明,三项环境污染指标(工业废水、工业废气、工业固废的排放量)均与人均GDP之间存在着N型的三次曲线关系,其中工业废水和固废呈倒N型,废气的变化总趋势呈正N型.根据模拟结果,结合重庆市的实际情况,进一步分析了三条曲线的特征,并对曲线变化做出了相关解释,为重庆市的环境保护与生态经济建设提供了有利的科学依据.     

Energy consumption,emissions and economic growth in Bahrain

This study examines the Granger causality relationships between economic growth, energy consumption and emissions, from 1980 to 2007 in Bahrain, controlling for capital and urban population using Toda and Yamamoto’s approach. It was found that there is unilateral causality which runs from urban population, economic growth, capital and energy consumption to environment. Further, we found strong support for causality running from economic growth to energy consumption, emissions and capital. The existence of these linkages suggests that the government of Bahrain may pursue energy efficiency strategies and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth. Additionally, the long run pursuit of high economic growth given sustained increases in energy efficiency may also reduce CO₂ emissions intensity per unit of her GDP.     

泛长江三角洲地区经济发展与生态环境耦合协调关系分析

以泛长三角地区41个地级市以上的政区为例,运用改进熵值法计算经济发展及生态环境系统的综合得分,并运用耦合协调模型分析1999~2013年两系统的耦合协调度及其演变,最后通过经济发展与生态环境系统得分排名划分4种类型,提出未来泛长江三角洲经济发展分类指导建议。研究结果表明:(1)1999~2013年泛长三角地区经济发展与生态环境的耦合度C∈[0.5,0.8],整体位于磨合阶段;而系统协调度D∈[0.3,0.5],整体属于中度耦合协调;(2)1999~2013年泛长三角经济发展与生态环境系统耦合协调度呈现上升态势,但经济发展与生态环境系统综合评价值仍表现负相关的特征;(3)未来苏南地区、皖江地区、杭甬地区需要进一步调整产业分布结构,提升城市经济发展环境;而苏北地区、皖西地区、浙西南地区需要进一步增加城市经济发展的软、硬实力各种要素的投入,并将城市生态环境优势转化为经济增长优势。     

Cybersecurity and dynamic operation in practice: Equipment impacts and safety guarantees

Though dynamic operation of chemical processes has been extensively explored theoretically in contexts such as economic model predictive control or even considering the potential for cyberattacks on control systems creating non-standard operating policies, important practical questions remain regarding dynamic operation. In this work, we look at two of these with particular relevance to process safety: (1) evaluating dynamic operating policies with respect to process equipment fidelity and (2) evaluating procedures for determining the parameters of an advanced control law that can promote both dynamic operation as well as safety if appropriately designed. Regarding the first topic, we utilize computational fluid dynamics and finite element analysis simulations to analyze how cyberattacks on control systems could impact a metric for stress in equipment (maximum Von Mises stress) over time. Subsequently, we develop reduced-order models showing how both a process variable and maximum Von Mises stress vary over time in response to temperature variations at the boundary of the equipment, to use in evaluating how advanced control frameworks might impact and consider the stress. We close by investigating options for obtaining parameters of an economic model predictive control design that would need to meet a variety of theoretical requirements for safety guarantees to hold. This provides insights on practical safety aspects of control theory, and also indicates relationships between control and design from a safety perspective that highlight further relationships between design and control under dynamic operation to deepen perspectives from the computational fluid dynamics and finite element analysis discussions.