Energy consumption,emissions and economic growth in Bahrain

This study examines the Granger causality relationships between economic growth, energy consumption and emissions, from 1980 to 2007 in Bahrain, controlling for capital and urban population using Toda and Yamamoto’s approach. It was found that there is unilateral causality which runs from urban population, economic growth, capital and energy consumption to environment. Further, we found strong support for causality running from economic growth to energy consumption, emissions and capital. The existence of these linkages suggests that the government of Bahrain may pursue energy efficiency strategies and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth. Additionally, the long run pursuit of high economic growth given sustained increases in energy efficiency may also reduce CO₂ emissions intensity per unit of her GDP.     

泛长江三角洲地区经济发展与生态环境耦合协调关系分析

以泛长三角地区41个地级市以上的政区为例,运用改进熵值法计算经济发展及生态环境系统的综合得分,并运用耦合协调模型分析1999~2013年两系统的耦合协调度及其演变,最后通过经济发展与生态环境系统得分排名划分4种类型,提出未来泛长江三角洲经济发展分类指导建议。研究结果表明:(1)1999~2013年泛长三角地区经济发展与生态环境的耦合度C∈[0.5,0.8],整体位于磨合阶段;而系统协调度D∈[0.3,0.5],整体属于中度耦合协调;(2)1999~2013年泛长三角经济发展与生态环境系统耦合协调度呈现上升态势,但经济发展与生态环境系统综合评价值仍表现负相关的特征;(3)未来苏南地区、皖江地区、杭甬地区需要进一步调整产业分布结构,提升城市经济发展环境;而苏北地区、皖西地区、浙西南地区需要进一步增加城市经济发展的软、硬实力各种要素的投入,并将城市生态环境优势转化为经济增长优势。     

Cybersecurity and dynamic operation in practice: Equipment impacts and safety guarantees

Though dynamic operation of chemical processes has been extensively explored theoretically in contexts such as economic model predictive control or even considering the potential for cyberattacks on control systems creating non-standard operating policies, important practical questions remain regarding dynamic operation. In this work, we look at two of these with particular relevance to process safety: (1) evaluating dynamic operating policies with respect to process equipment fidelity and (2) evaluating procedures for determining the parameters of an advanced control law that can promote both dynamic operation as well as safety if appropriately designed. Regarding the first topic, we utilize computational fluid dynamics and finite element analysis simulations to analyze how cyberattacks on control systems could impact a metric for stress in equipment (maximum Von Mises stress) over time. Subsequently, we develop reduced-order models showing how both a process variable and maximum Von Mises stress vary over time in response to temperature variations at the boundary of the equipment, to use in evaluating how advanced control frameworks might impact and consider the stress. We close by investigating options for obtaining parameters of an economic model predictive control design that would need to meet a variety of theoretical requirements for safety guarantees to hold. This provides insights on practical safety aspects of control theory, and also indicates relationships between control and design from a safety perspective that highlight further relationships between design and control under dynamic operation to deepen perspectives from the computational fluid dynamics and finite element analysis discussions.     

基于函数极值条件下的中国碳达峰碳中和情景分析

基于函数极值条件提出了碳达峰出现时间和需要满足的理论条件,并对主要发达国家作了验证,同时对中国现状做了分析,最后采用了基准和强化两种情景分析了中国实现2030年碳达峰后进入2060年碳中和时期的二氧化碳排放量。研究结果显示：（1）根据IPAT恒等式将碳排放函数分解成人口、人均GDP和碳强度三个因素时,碳峰值出现时间为三个因素年增长率之和由正转负的正数值年度,发达国家的历史数据证实了这一条件。（2）中国三个因素年增长率之和自2003年起已经开始降低,最近几年一直在0.01~0.02徘徊,表明总体上朝着有利于碳达峰的方向发展,同时按照三个因素的预期发展目标计算得出中国2030年碳排放峰值的上限为112.2亿t,若2021—2035年保持相同的人均GDP年均复合增长率,碳强度年均复合增长率的绝对值需要比人均GDP年均复合增长率高0.14个百分点。（3）在能源消费总量逐渐回落的前提条件下,2060年基准情景下非化石能源占比约为65%,产生的二氧化碳量约为31.4亿t,强化情景下非化石能源占比约为70%,二氧化碳排放约为26.6亿t,而碳汇和CCUS等固碳技术还存在不确定性,碳中和任务依然艰巨。实现碳达峰碳中和最终需要控制能源消费,践行低碳消费行为。     

我国取消电价补贴的经济影响——基于电价管制及完全竞争市场的分析

通过构建电力部门细分的CGE模型,分别在电价管制和完全竞争市场背景下,评估了取消电价交叉补贴和可再生能源电价补贴,以及引入碳税政策并将碳税收入转移支付给风电及光伏行业的经济影响.研究发现:取消电价交叉补贴对GDP有负面影响,而取消可再生能源电价补贴后GDP有所提升;相比完全竞争市场,电价管制市场背景下取消电价交叉补贴对GDP的负面冲击强度增加了0.003%,而取消可再生能源电价补贴对GDP的促进作用幅度则相对减小0.056%;同时取消两种补贴时,在电价管制市场背景下GDP相比基准情景下降了0.022%,而在完全竞争市场背景下GDP则增加了0.038%.电价管制市场背景下取消电价补贴对电力结构及能源结构影响较小;而在完全竞争市场背景下取消电价补贴将刺激传统电力消费并导致碳排放有所增加.引入碳税政策并将碳税收入转移支付给风电及光伏行业可以有效控制碳排放并促进电力结构和能源结构改善,但会对行业总产出和GDP产生更大的负面冲击.我国未来应适度放开电价管制,并采取诸如适时征收碳税并将其收入转移支付给风电和光伏行业的支持性政策,推动我国能源结构优化和节能减排目标的实现.     

南方丘陵山地带土壤保持功能及其经济价值时空变化特征

土壤保持是生态系统提供的重要调节服务之一,在区域侵蚀控制以及生态安全的维持方面具有不可替代的作用。以全国主体生态功能区划中"两屏三带"的南方丘陵山地带为研究对象,在遥感和地理信息系统的支持下,以2000、2005和2010年3期生态系统类型数据为主要数据源,运用通用土壤流失方程(Universal Soil Loss Equation, USLE)分析了南方丘陵山地带生态系统土壤保持功能,并对其经济价值进行动态核算。结果表明:10 a间,南方丘陵山地带土壤保持总量呈上升趋势,土壤保持总量上升了76.79×10⁷ t,森林、灌丛和农田生态系统是研究区土壤保持功能的主要贡献者,总贡献率3个年份分别为82.29%、82.59%和80.58%,不同生态系统土壤保持总量排序为森林> 灌丛> 农田> 草地> 湿地> 人工表面> 稀疏地,土壤保持能力排序为湿地> 草地> 灌丛> 森林> 农田> 人工表面> 稀疏地;10 a间,研究区土壤保持功能总经济价值增加了270.34×10⁸元,总经济价值中以保持土壤肥力价值为主;土壤保持功能经济价值的变化以轻微增加为主,其呈现增加的区域面积和价值增幅大于经济价值减少的区域面积和价值减幅。在对该区域生态系统进行保护的基础上,因地制宜地合理增加植被盖度对防治土壤侵蚀、保持土壤养分可以起到良好效果。     

环境约束下长江经济带全要素能源效率的时空分异研究——基于超效率DEA模型和ML指数法

基于超效率DEA模型和ML指数法,考察长江经济带1999~2013年全要素能源效率。实证研究结果显示:研究期内,环境约束下的长江经济带全要素能源效率年均下降2.9%,而不考虑环境因素的全要素能源效率年均下降幅度仅为0.4%,污染是导致能源效率损失的重要因素;长江经济带整体层面全要素能源效率的发展演变基本呈"双峰一谷"的"M"形分布,表现为两个"上升—下降"周期,而省际和上中下游全要素能源效率的演变特征迥异;从空间差异看,省际全要素能源效率差异远远大于上中下游差异,但近年来这种差异均有不同程度的缩小。未来长江经济带发展必须践行生态文明发展战略,保证发展的可持续性,同时加强能源、环保等领域的合作,促进长江经济带全要素能源效率发展的协同进步。     

The relationship between sustainable development and resource use from a geographic perspective

Geography provides the basic building blocks for the study of resource use and sustainable development, inasmuch as it categorizes the human environment. Within the environment are resources that are needed for the survival of society. As resources are largely limited and finite, humans as agents of change must employ techniques that allow an efficient and lasting use of the available resources in their environment. This paper discusses the nexus between geography, resource exploitation, use, and sustainable development. It also discusses the characteristics, types, and classification of resources, development and sustainable development as well as the challenges and strategies for attaining sustainable development, particularly in developing countries.     

控释尿素不同施用条件下冬小麦产量和氮素利用效应

采用田间试验方法研究了控释尿素不同施用条件对冬小麦产量、氮素利用和经济效益的影响。试验共设7个处理,即CK （空白处理,不施氮肥）、100%PU10/0（普通尿素全量基施,N 240 kg＆#183;hm-2）、100%PU6/4（60%的普通尿素基施、40%的普通尿素于拔节期追施,N 240 kg＆#183;hm-2）、80%PU6/4（60%的普通尿素基施、40%的普通尿素于拔节期追施,N 192 kg＆#183;hm-2）、100%CRU（全量树脂包膜控释尿素基施,N 240 kg＆#183;hm-2）、80%CRU（80%树脂包膜控释尿素基施,N 192 kg＆#183;hm-2）和40%CRU＋40%PU（40%树脂包膜控释尿素＋40%的普通尿素基施,N 192 kg＆#183;hm-2）。结果表明,无论是产量效应还是氮素利用效应,树脂包膜控释尿素（CRU）处理总体优于普通尿素（PU）处理,尤其树脂包膜控释尿素和普通尿素配施（40%CRU＋40%PU）效果最佳,以7709 kg＆#183;hm-2的产量、36.44%的氮肥吸收利用率、15946元＆#183;hm-2的相对净收入达到处理间最高水平。该处理在减少氮素投入量的情况下,不仅促进了冬小麦增产,而且显著提高了肥料的利用率,拥有较高的产投比。因此,树脂包膜控释尿素和普通尿素的配施处理（40%CRU＋40%PU）是本试验条件下最优的氮肥处理。     

Household income,living and working conditions of dumpsite waste pickers in Bantar Gebang: Toward integrated waste management in Indonesia

This paper clarifies household income, living and working conditions of dumpsite waste pickers at Bantar Gebang final disposal site for municipal solid waste generated in Jakarta, and investigates the feasibility of integrating the informal sector into formal waste management in Indonesia. The first author did fieldwork for totally 16 months at the site and quantitative field surveys were conducted twice during the period. All respondents in the first round quantitative survey (n = 1390) were categorized as follows: waste pickers, family workers, wage labors, bosses, family of the bosses, housewives, pupils/students, preschoolers, the unemployed, and others. Based on the results of the second round quantitative survey (n = 69 households), their average household income was estimated to be approximately US 216 dollars per month (n = 59 households), which was virtually equivalent to the minimum wage in Jakarta in 2013. Living conditions of scavengers at the site were horrible, and their working conditions were dangerous due to medical waste and other sharp waste. Polluted groundwater was one of the serious environmental problems at the site. Despite the social, health and environmental problems, they were attracted to the freedom of entering the informal recycling system in Bantar Gebang and withdrawing from the system, in which a lot of opportunities were provided for the people having few marketable skills to obtain cash earnings. The freedom of their choice should be guaranteed as a prerequisite before integrating the informal sector into formal waste management. Furthermore, special attentions are required when incomes of scavengers are the same level as minimum wages and the national economy is rapidly growing, because scavengers cannot easily change their jobs due to few marketable skills. Indonesian national waste laws and regulations should be properly applied to facilitate a socialization process at final disposal sites. Measures need to be taken to prevent children from working as informal recycling actors, especially for waste pickers aged 15 or younger.