略论建设长江经济带

强调指出长江沿岸地区是我国本世纪末或更长时期内重点开发的地区之一,论述了建设长江经济带的必要性和长江流域的资源秉赋,提出了建设长江经济带的基本构想以及应采取的战略措施。     

山东可持续发展试验带的经济学分析

在介绍国家和山东省可持续发展实验区建设的基本情况的基础上．论述了山东省构建可持续发展试验带的必要性。利用区位论的基本原理，结合可持续发展实验区建设经验，综合考虑城市间的距离、经济聚集规模及对资源依赖程度等因素，分析了山东省17个市的相互作用潜力．计算出淄博、济南、烟台、青岛、潍坊、威海、泰安、东营、济宁、滨州、临沂等11个城市具有划入山东省可持续发展试验带的潜力．为规划山东的区域可持续发展提供了理论基础。     

Equity and sustainability over the next fifty years: An exercise in economic visioning

A simplistic aggregate model of global economic activity supports a 50-year visioning exercise with targets defined in terms of aggregate measures of global equity (convergence) and sustainability (contraction). Some ambitious combinations of these targets turn out to be infeasible even under the most favorable modeling assumptions. No contraction target (no reduction in fossil fuel consumption relative to the present) was possible, for example, if international capital transfers pushed per capita incomes in low-income countries above 33% of levels achieved in high-income countries. Lower prices for renewable alternatives to exhaustible resources generally made sustainability targets easier to achieve, but lower prices for renewable resources also made equity targets more difficult to achieve. Improved substitution between capital and labor made equity targets easier to achieve in relative terms, but improved substitution between capital and labor could make any given sustainability target more or less difficult to achieve. All the results suggest that it is possible to overstate the purported conflict between achieving sustainability and equity targets. The very transfers of international capital that would promote relative equity between high-income and low-income countries could also work to spread the incidence of achieving any sustainability target more evenly across their boundaries.Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

中国资源型城市经济转型问题与战略探索

资源型城市经济性转型正面临着重大的经济、社会和资源环境问题：①城市产业结构属于资源型、粗放型的传统初级产业结构。技术水平与效益低下；②就业和社会保障压力巨大；③资源濒临枯竭。环境污染和生态问题严重；④机制体制问题突出。创新能力不足。资源型城市的经济成功转型需要战略创新。具体战略包括：发展目标创新——社会福利均等化、经济持续发展、生态环境整治与社会经济协调发展的三大效益目标；循环经济发展战略一多元化产业结构优化。构建生态产业体系。转变传统增长方式；资源替代与产业替代战略；科技创新战略——依靠高新技术的后发优势战略；生态城市战略；机制体制创新战略等。     

Appropriateness of needles of different conifer species for the feeding and growth of larvae from two populations of the Siberian moth

A comparison of two Siberian moth populations from the Altai Republic (feeding on Siberian fir) and the Tyva Republic (feeding on Siberian larch) has revealed no differences between them with respect to ecophysiological parameters of larval growth and feeding on needles of the same conifer species under laboratory conditions. The index of appropriateness of food plants for the larvae from both populations decreases in the series larch > fir > spruce > pine. The age-related dynamics of parameters characterizing the feeding and growth of larvae are independent of the population to which the insects belong.     

ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF ON-FARM WATER MANAGEMENT PROJECTS1

ABSTRACT: During the last three decades, developing countries have invested enormous amounts of resources (running into billions of dollars) in the development of large surface irrigation systems. Investment funds were largely spent on the development of the main systems such as dams, canals and distributaries. Very little attention and resources have been spent on the development of below-the-outlet subsystems, in spite of very low levels of water use efficiency due to lack of proper land leveling, high water losses in field channels, and skewed distribution of available water among farmers served by individual water courses. This state of affairs has resulted in a lack of confidence on the part of most farmers in the reliability of surface irrigation systems to deliver water on time and in adequate quantities which, in turn, has resulted in farmers using below optimum levels of all other complementary inputs except labor. Realizing the importance of improving water use efficiency, both the domestic governments and donor agencies are increasingly paying serious attention to these problems. On-Farm Water Management (OFWM) as a strategy to improve water use efficiency and consequently agricultural production in many developing countries has been currently receiving very wide and vigorous consideration among economists, water management experts, policymakers, and donor agencies. A judicious use of the newly allocated funds of OFWM projects obviously needs proper evaluation procedures so that money could be allocated for the most deserving purposes and projects. In particular, recently, private profitability calculations due to public investments in OFWM activities have received attention from economists and decision makers in developing countries’governments and in donor agencies are very much interested in knowing the impacts of their investments in OFWM activities on farmers’income and welfare. However, the evaluation procedures commonly used in empirical studies, using a production function approach, seem to be at variance and sometimes inconsistent with proper comparative-static procedures. Thus, the primary objective of this paper is to develop consistent procedures for evaluating the impacts created by OFWM investments on farmers’income and resource use. In this context, the paper examines the critical relationship between the market price of the agricultural output and production function parameters which are affected by the OFWM investments.     

人类承载力"K值"影响因素

人类承载力“K值”表示地球能承载人口的极限值。“K值”的影响因素的繁多以及相互间的联系使得“K值”确切数值的计算成为一项非常艰巨的任务。通过分析人类与自然的关系，探讨人类承载力的微观影响因素及其相互关系，从开放生态系统的性质讨论人类承载力的宏观影响因素。从而得出人类承载力受渐变和突变因素的结合控制。以此揭开承载和调控人类种群的机理并预测“K值”的可能发展趋势，达到避免计算“K值”确切数值而又能提出人口增长对策和可持续发展的指导意见的目的。     

我国世界自然遗产地旅游业环境经济核算思路

目前，各级地方政府及旅游经营者对中国世界自然遗产地旅游价值的开发力度大，自然遗产地旅游经济发展异常繁荣，同时也带来了自然遗产地环境退化、资源破坏的严重后果。而用来衡量地区经济发展状况的传统旅游业经济核算结果仅体现旅游经济的增长与否及尺度，而忽略了旅游经济增长同时的环境、资源损耗。现借用SEEA 2000框架，结合中国国情，提出中国世界自然遗产地环境经济核算的框架，经过重新整合，突出优质而独具特色的自然环境部分的环境资产类在自然遗产地旅游业中的生产性资产地位，将原SEEA 2000中拆分核算的5大部分、10大步骤整合为4大部分、9大步骤，并对其当前可操作性进行了客观分析。并指出，虽然目前详尽执行世界自然遗产地环境经济核算有一定难度，但理清核算思路具有现实指导意义。     

水资源对区域社会经济发展的支撑能力研究--以济南市长清区为例

水资源支撑能力即在当前技术水平条件下,某一区域水资源对区域发展总体目标的支撑限度.该文以系统动力学理论为指导,对长清区水资源的支撑能力进行了分析.拟定出在水资源约束条件下的三个区域发展方案,即:(1)水资源投资控制;(2)工业增长速度控制;(3)污水回用率控制.仿真结果分析表明,以方案(3)的适用性较好,在水资源投资不断增加,投资比例趋于合理的情况下,水资源对社会经济发展的支撑能力将由2002年的0.98提高天2010年的1.0.