Realistic retrospective dose assessments to members of the public around Spanish nuclear facilities

In the frame of an epidemiological study carried out in the influence areas around the Spanish nuclear facilities (ISCIII-CSN, 2009. Epidemiological Study of The Possible Effect of Ionizing Radiations Deriving from The Operation of Spanish Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities on The Health of The Population Living in Their Vicinity. Final report December 2009. Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear. Madrid. Available from: http://www.csn.es/images/stories/actualidad_datos/especiales/epidemiologico/epidemiological_study.pdf), annual effective doses to public have been assessed by the Spanish Nuclear Safety Council (CSN) for over 45 years using a retrospective realistic-dose methodology. These values are compared with data from natural radiation exposure. For the affected population, natural radiation effective doses are in average 2300 times higher than effective doses due to the operation of nuclear installations (nuclear power stations and fuel cycle facilities). When considering the impact on the whole Spanish population, effective doses attributable to nuclear facilities represent in average 3.5 × 10⁻⁵ mSv/y, in contrast to 1.6 mSv/y from natural radiation or 1.3 mSv/y from medical exposures.     

漓江上游植被覆盖度时空变化对地表热场影响

自20世纪80年代以来,桂林漓江由于上游森林遭受破坏出现水生态环境快速恶化的趋势。地表热场的时空变化直接影响森林蒸散及水文效应。因此,对漓江上游1989~2006年5景TM/ETM+卫星图像,利用归一化植被指数反演植被覆盖度,利用单窗算法反演地表温度,提出归一化温度使不同时相地表热场具有可比性,分析植被覆盖度时空变化对地表热场的影响。结果表明,在空间上,地表温度随植被覆盖度的增加而降低,在植被覆盖度很高或很低时,这种影响相对变弱;在时间上,漓江上游1989~2000年植被中、高度覆盖面积从96.1%逐年下降到65.9%,导致归一化地表温度数值较高的像元比例相应增加;2000~2006年植被中、高度覆盖面积逐渐恢复上升到90.8%,但仍略低于1989年,使得归一化地表温度数值较高的像元比例相应减少。植被覆盖可以有效地降低漓江上游地表温度     

河流近域土地利用格局与水质相关性分析——以巢湖流域为例

以河流近域土地利用构成与水环境质量间定量关系为研究对象,基于巢湖流域40个水质监测断面和320个河流近域作用区,运用GIS空间分析功能计算不同尺度作用区内土地利用构成,借助相关分析、冗余分析(RDA)等数理统计手段,分析土地利用构成与水质指数间的相关关系;并分析和比较了流域内山区和平原地区土地利用构成与水质之间关系。结果表明,巢湖流域近河道地区土地利用构成对各水质指数有重要影响,且受地形因素影响。其中,建设用地对河流水质恶化具有明显作用;河流沿岸林地布局能显著改善水质,尤其是对氨氮和高锰酸盐指数敏感;耕地面积变化与水质相关性不显著。RDA冗余分析证实了不同尺度下的土地利用类型对水环境影响具有尺度效应。研究成果对巢湖流域水环境管理具有重要的实际指导意义,并为同类研究提供借鉴     

Impacts of Surface Gold Mining on Land Use Systems in Western Ghana

Land use conflicts are becoming increasingly apparent from local to global scales. Surface gold mining is an extreme source of such a conflict, but mining impacts on local livelihoods often remain unclear. Our goal here was to assess land cover change due to gold surface mining in Western Ghana, one of the world’s leading gold mining regions, and to study how these changes affected land use systems. We used Landsat satellite images from 1986–2002 to map land cover change and field interviews with farmers to understand the livelihood implications of mining-related land cover change. Our results showed that surface mining resulted in deforestation (58%), a substantial loss of farmland (45%) within mining concessions, and widespread spill-over effects as relocated farmers expand farmland into forests. This points to rapidly eroding livelihood foundations, suggesting that the environmental and social costs of Ghana’s gold boom may be much higher than previously thought.     

Dietary patterns and blood levels of PCDDs, PCDFs, and dioxin-like PCBs in 1656 Japanese individuals

The association between dietary patterns and blood dioxin levels has not been fully investigated. The present study population consisted of 755 men and 901 women (aged 15-73 years) living in 90 different areas of 30 prefectures of Japan. Dietary habits were assessed by inquiring about the consumption frequency of 28 foods, food groups and beverages. In addition, the blood levels of 29 polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzo-furans (PCDFs), and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyl (DL-PCBs) congeners were determined by high-resolution gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. The median total toxicity equivalent (TEQ) in the blood, which was calculated on the basis of the toxicity equivalency factors of WHO (2005), was 16 pg TEQ g⁻¹ lipid. Principal component analysis identified five dietary patterns: Healthy diet (high intake of vegetables and fruits); Meat/High fat intake (high intake of meat, meat products, and eggs); Seafood and Alcohol (high intake of fish, shellfish, and alcoholic beverages); Miscellaneous; and Milk products and Alcohol intake (high intake of milk, Milk products, and alcoholic beverages). After adjusting for sex, age, body mass index, and smoking habits, the Seafood and Alcohol pattern scores were significantly related to higher blood levels of total TEQ and PCDDs/PCDFs/DL-PCBs, and the Milk products and Alcohol pattern scores were correlated with higher blood levels of DL-PCBs. More detailed analysis showed that the intake frequencies for alcoholic beverages and seafood were independently and positively associated with total TEQ and the TEQ of PCDFs and DL-PCBs. The association between alcoholic beverage intake and PCDDs was also significant. Analysis of dietary patterns may be useful for identifying the dietary characteristics of individuals with a high dioxin body burden.     

中国并网光伏发电系统的经济性与环境效益

太阳能已成为世界各国公认的最为理想的替代能源,其应用规模不断扩大.但光伏发电系统高昂的成本,成为限制其发展的关键因素.本文应用净现值和单因素敏感性分析工具,建立了光伏发电成本的计算模型,以我国34个省会城市作为研究案例,对井网光伏发电系统进行了经济性和环境效益分析.结果显示:在目前政府初始投资补贴一半的情况下,并网光伏发电成本介于0.83-2.29元/kWh之间.即便在光照资源最丰富的地区,并网光伏发电仍无法与常规能源发电相竞争.在影响并网光伏系统发电成本的诸多影响因素中,政府初始投资补贴额度、水平面太阳能辐射量和投资密度的敏感性最强;CDM资金的注入对光伏发电成本的降低具有积极的作用.激励政策方面,出台合适的、稳定的上网电价对启动国内光伏市场最为有效.光伏发电系统的环境效益是指光伏发电的减排环境效益扣除系统发电环境成本的余额.经计算并网光伏发电具有显著的环境效益,其环境效益为0.0165元/kWh.本研究对于国家制定光伏发电的激励政策和成本分摊机制具有重要的参考价值.     

社会产品价格对水价的敏感性——基于虚拟水贸易框架的分析

虚拟水贸易是缺水地区从社会经济系统层面解决水资源短缺问题的一种策略选择,但由于长期的低水价,致使很多国家和地区的现实经济模式与虚拟水贸易战略的预期相悖.文章基于水资源投入产出分析方法,构建虚拟水贸易理论框架下的水价敏感性模型,分析水价上涨对各产业产品价格带来的影响.模型结果显示,区域水价提升对各产业产品价格的影响不仅在于该产业直接用水成本的上升,同时也不得不承受其他产业成本上升带来的间接影响,并且这两种影响作用是累加的.宁夏数据的实证得出,水价上涨对农业产品价格的影响最为强烈,批发和零售贸易餐饮业次之,对服务业产品价格的影响最弱.因此,可通过制定合理的水价调整策略,激励水资源极度缺乏的地区实施虚拟水贸易战略,避免过分强调传统的重农发展模式,促进产业结构向先进制造业和服务业转变,实现有限水资源更为合理的利用模式,达到经济发展与水生态的和谐局面.     

基于空间计量经济学的碳排放与经济增长分析

本文采用空间计量经济学的方法对我国各省份的经济增长与碳排放之间的关系进行了实证分析,结果表明:我国各省份的碳排放在空间分布上表现出一定的空间正自相关性,碳排放量最高的省份多处于经济发达的沿海地区,如以北京为中心的环渤海地区,以上海为中心的长三角地区和以广东为核心的珠三角地区,而次之的是经济较为发达的地区,如中部的山西、湖北、湖南、江西、安徽和西南地区;我国各省份的碳排放在空间分布上存在一定的空间集群效应,如环渤海地区就表现出高碳排放的空间集群效应,而西部地区的西藏、新疆、甘肃、青海却表现出低碳排放的空间集群效应.经济增长与碳排放呈现出正相关关系,高碳排放的地区多处于经济发达的沿海地区,而低碳排放的地区多处于经济落后的内陆地区;我国目前的经济增长对碳排放的依赖性较强,经济增长对碳排放的弹性系数约为0.8左右,说明在未来的短时间内很难实行低碳经济的发展模式.     

协调中国环境污染与经济增长冲突的路径研究——基于环境退化成本的分析

选取我国1990-2009年相关数据,首先对环境遥化成本进行估计,发现我国环境退化成本呈现不断上升的趋势,而水污染、空气污染是导致环境退化成本产生的主要原因.其次,以环境退化成本作为污染指标,结合环境库兹涅茨曲线的特征,并以能否有效地将污染指标降低到相对较低的水平,作为政策路径选择的标准,分析协调我国环境污染与经济增长冲突的路径.实证研究结果表明:在不考虑政策因素的影响下,我国目前国内生产总值水平仍处在环境库兹涅茨曲线拐点的左端,经济持续增长有可能导致环境状况进一步恶化;多项环境治理政策的同步实施,致使个别政策出现低效率甚至是无效率;在当前产出水平条件下,既要保证经济平稳增长,又要降低环境退化成本,政策路径的选择首先应注重产业结构的调整,适当保持第二产业比重,但在发展第三产业的过程中,应加大对污染企业的监管与治理,其次是调整国际贸易进出口比例,积极扩大出口,而采用吸引外商直接投资与加大污染治理投资等政策在我国现阶段均不能有效降低环境退化成本.     

中国区域能源效率发展演变趋势的R/S分形分析

改革开放以来中国能源效率不断地提高,但是在某些年份存在波动现象.采用非线性分形理论及分形分析R/S方法,科学定量地描述了中国以及各个地区能源效率的演变趋势.首先采用分形理论对1978-2008年的中国能源效率时间序列数据进行研究,结果显示,中国能源效率发展演变存在Hurst现象,具有明显的分形特征.并依照“五年计划”来划分时间序列样本为研究区间,结合“五年计划”详尽地解释说明了中国能源效率变动的原因.然后将数据扩大为样本期为1995-2008年29地区的面板数据,采用面板变系数模型进一步对各个地区的能源效率进行分析,发现除海南外其他地区的能源效率演变过程中具有明显的持续性规律,各个地区能源效率将继续保持增长.西部6个地区以及东北三省的能源效率演变趋势高于全国水平,说明“西部大开发”战略和“振兴东北”战略都已经显效.