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981.
Edward B. Barbier 《Environment, Development and Sustainability》2003,5(3-4):437-458
The following paper examines the main factors determining long-run agricultural land expansion in Latin America compared to other tropical regions. Given the importance of natural resource-based sectors for most economies in Latin America, the impact of price-induced "resource booms" on economic growth in the region is explored. In addition, the paper examines whether there is an inherent "boom and bust" pattern of economic development associated with agricultural land expansion in Latin America, and the extent to which economic policies in the region exacerbate this problem. The paper concludes by examining the role of targeted policies in alleviating the structural obstacles to Latin American agricultural and economic development. 相似文献
982.
Lake Erie water quality has improved dramatically since the degraded conditions of the 1960s. Additional gains could be made,
but at the expense of further investment and reductions in fishery productivity. In facing such cross-jurisdictional issues,
natural resource managers in Canada and the United States must grapple with conflicting objectives and important uncertainties,
while considering the priorities of the public that live in the basin. The techniques and tools of decision analysis have
been used successfully to deal with such decision problems in a range of environmental settings, but infrequently in the Great
Lakes. The objective of this paper is to illustrate how such techniques might be brought to bear on an important, real decision
currently facing Lake Erie resource managers and stakeholders: the choice of new phosphorus loading targets for the lake.
The heart of our approach is a systematic elicitation of stakeholder preferences and an investigation of the degree to which
different phosphorus-loading policies might satisfy ecosystem objectives. Results show that there are potential benefits to
changing the historical policy of reducing phosphorus loads in Lake Erie. 相似文献
983.
Methodological Development of an Index of Coastal Water Quality: Application in a Tourist Area 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
With the aim of obtaining an index of coastal water quality, a methodological procedure based on numerical classification and discriminant analysis is presented. The procedure was applied to nutrient data (ammonia, nitrite, nitrate, and phosphate) analyzed along the coastal waters of a Spanish tourist area. Using numerical classification, three levels of nutrient loading were revealed, characterizing oligotrophic, mesotrophic, and potentially eutrophic waters. Discriminant analysis was shown to be an effective methodological tool in the discrimination between trophic groups. For every group, the discriminant procedure generated the centroids. The centroids representing oligotrophic and potentially eutrophic conditions were used to establish the two extremes of the continuum of mesotrophic conditions in these coastal waters: Standardizing values from -1 to 1, the centroids for oligotrophic and potentially eutrophic waters yielded an interval that defined the range of mesotrophic conditions. This interval is proposed as a water quality index. The ability of the coastal water quality index to successfully predict mesotrophic conditions was proved with random samples. 相似文献
984.
A simple method for the quantitative gradient analysis of a xerotermic forest-margin ecotone is described. In this method, the mean value of the coefficient of similarity between all plots of the transect is used for estimating the rate of changes in species composition. Changes in the phytosociological spectrum are analyzed. The method adequately reflects trends in the displacement of forest species by forest-margin, steppe, and meadow species. 相似文献
985.
/ The International Joint Commission (IJC) has overseen the implementation of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement between Canada and the United States for 25 years. Part of its mandate has been to facilitate international cooperation among a diversity of stakeholders focusing on the "waters" and the "ecosystem." In the 1970s policy focused on phosphorus reduction and individual contaminants, with some efforts (after 1978) to take an ecosystem (ecological perspectives) approach. In the last 15 years human health effects from (real and perceived) environmental causes have received considerable recognition. By contrast, less concern has been expressed for what is traditionally considered "environment" issues (such as protecting fish species). This shift at the policy level is well illustrated in the manner in which human health is increasingly used as a way for mobilizing environmental agendas. This paper analyzes nine IJC biennial reports to track how the framing of Great Lakes issues has shifted from concern for its waters to concern for human neurobehavior and reproductive systems. Frame analysis is used to conceptualize the controversies that are expressed through the Great Lakes policy documents. The analysis of the reports also reveals a shift in operational frames, used by the IJC to mobilize decision-makers into action. 相似文献
986.
This paper describes an application of multiple criteria analysis (MCA) in assessing criteria and indicators adapted for a
particular forest management unit. The methods include: ranking, rating, and pairwise comparisons. These methods were used
in a participatory decision-making environment where a team representing various stakeholders and professionals used their
expert opinions and judgements in assessing different criteria and indicators (C&I) on the one hand, and how suitable and
applicable they are to a forest management unit on the other. A forest concession located in Kalimantan, Indonesia, was used
as the site for the case study. Results from the study show that the multicriteria methods are effective tools that can be
used as structured decision aids to evaluate, prioritize, and select sets of C&I for a particular forest management unit.
Ranking and rating approaches can be used as a screening tool to develop an initial list of C&I. Pairwise comparison, on the
other hand, can be used as a finer filter to further reduce the list. In addition to using these three MCA methods, the study
also examines two commonly used group decision-making techniques, the Delphi method and the nominal group technique. Feedback
received from the participants indicates that the methods are transparent, easy to implement, and provide a convenient environment
for participatory decision-making. 相似文献
987.
Graf WL 《Environmental management》2000,25(3):321-335
/ Data from historical aerial photographs analyzed with a GIS show that river channel change on the Salt River in the Phoenix metropolitan area of central Arizona has been driven by large-scale regional flood events and local human activities. Mapping of functional surfaces such as low-flow channels, high-flow channels, islands, bars attached to channel banks, and engineered surfaces shows that during the period from 1935 to 1997, the relative areal coverage of these surfaces has changed. Flood events have caused general changes in sinuosity of the low-flow channel, but islands have remained remarkably consistent in location and size, while channel-side bars have waxed and waned. The most important determinant of local channel form and process is sand and gravel mining, which in some reaches occupies more than 70% of the active channel area. The general location of mining is closely related to the location of the moving urban fringe, which serves as a market for sand and gravel during construction. Quantitative spatial analysis of imagery supplemented by field mapping shows that for each location within the general channel area, it is possible to specify a probability of encountering a low-flow channel or other fluvial features. Maps showing the distribution of these probabilities of occurrence reveal the most probable location and configuration of the channel as it occurred in the past. Some reaches have the low-flow channel located persistently within a limited area as a result of bedrock or sinuosity controls, but other reaches dominated by flow separation or shallow gradient have almost no persistence in channel location from one flood to another. 相似文献
988.
Numerous analyses of the possible impacts of future climatic changes on tree species composition have been published for
both lowland and high-elevation forests. Most of these studies were based on the application of forest "gap" models, and the
vast majority of them considered only changes in the average of climatic parameters over time. In this study, we use a unique
data set on reconstructed past climatic variations to analyse forest dynamics simulated by the forest gap model ForClim. This
analysis forms the basis for a systematic exploration of the ecological effects of changing means vs. changing variability
of climate on central European forests. A reconstruction of historical climate covering the last 470 years in the Swiss lowlands
(ClimIndex) is extrapolated to a transect across the alpine (cold) treeline and used to simulate the influence of climate
variations on the time scale of decades on forest biomass and tree species composition at both sites. While the simulation
at the low-elevation site shows little sensitivity to climate variations, the results from upper subalpine forests suggest
that two major dieback events would have occurred at elevations above the current but below the climatic tree line, induced
by clusters of exceptionally cold summers. The results are in agreement with available dendrochronological data and with documentary
evidence on massive negative impacts on flora and fauna at high elevations during these periods. We conclude that ForClim
is capable of capturing the effects on tree population dynamics of climate variability at these sites as reconstructed from
the ClimIndex record. A factorial design is used to address the sensitivity of ForClim to changes of the long-term averages
vs. changes of the variability of monthly temperature and precipitation data. To this end, the simulated tree species composition
of near-natural forests is examined along a climate gradient in Europe. The results indicate that there are three types of
forest response: (1) little sensitivity to both kinds of change, (2) strong sensitivity to changes in the means, but little
sensitivity to changing variability, and (3) strong sensitivity to changing variability at least in parts of the examined
climate space. Half of the cases investigated fall under the third category, suggesting that emphasis should be placed on
also assessing the sensitivity of ecosystems to future changes in climate variability rather than on changes of average values
alone.
Electronic Publication 相似文献
989.
990.
主成分分析法在三江交汇处水质分析中的应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文应用主成分分析法,利用三江交汇处的三个断面从1984年到1998年的监测资料对交汇处的水质做分析,分析前先对量化数据标准化处理,处理后提取主成分,并且计算其贡献率和累计贡献率,再由相应的特征向量得到主成分的线性表达式。结果表明:五项影响因素中,三个断面桔水期均受亚硝酸盐氮的影响比较大,丰水期和平水期均受悬浮物和化学需氧量的影响比较大。交汇前,小南门断面的水质综合污染最严重,凉姜沟断面的水质综合污染最轻;交汇后,三江口断面的水质在两者的缓冲下,水质综合污染居中。则说明主成分分析法为河流的综合治理提供了科学依据。 相似文献