提高快速法测定C OD准确度及精密度的方法

介绍了用快速法测定COD分析中提高准确度及精密度的方法。     

The influence of Chinese population policy change on resources and the environment

Universal two-child policy has been implemented since the end of 2015 in China. This policy is anticipated to bring a significant increase in the total population, with profound influences on the resources and environment in the future. This paper analyzes the changing dynamics of urban and rural population, and forecasts urban and rural population from 2016 to 2030 at national and provincial scale using a double log linear regression model. Drawing upon the results of these two predictions, the impact of the population policy change on Chinese resources consumption and environmental pollution are predicted quantitatively. Given the future total population maintains current levels on resources consumption and environmental emission, the additional demand of resources and environment demand for the new population is forecasted and compared against the capacity on supply side. The findings are as follows: after implementing the universal two-child policy, China’s grain, energy consumption, domestic water demand, and pollutant emissions are projected to increase at different rates across provinces. To meet the needs arising from future population growth, food and energy self-sufficiency rate will be significantly reduced in the future, while relying more on imports. Stability of the water supply needs to be improved, especially in Beijing, Henan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, and Sichuan where the gap in future domestic water demand is comparatively larger. Environmental protection and associated governing capability are in urgent need of upgrade not least due to the increasing pressure of pollution.     

对氯气校正法测定高氯废水化学需氧量的方法研究

氯气校正法(HJ/T70-2001)是测定高氯废水化学需氧量的国标方法,为了减少样品测定过程带来的环境污染,研究在不改变HJ/T70-2001氧化体系及测试条件的情况下,将取样体积由20 mL减半为10 mL,试剂的使用量相应减半,对方法的检出限、相对误差、相对标准偏差等指标进行验证。结果表明,该方法的检出限符合要求,准确度较高,精密度较好,可用于高氯废水化学需氧量的测定。     

Forecasting China’s primary energy demand based on an improved AI model

An improved energy demand forecasting model is built based on the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and an adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) to obtain credible energy demand forecasting results. The ARDL bounds analysis is first employed to select the appropriate input variables of the energy demand model. After the existence of a cointegration relationship in the model is confirmed, the AGA is then employed to optimize the coefficients of both linear and quadratic forms with gross domestic product, economic structure, urbanization, and technological progress as the input variables. On the basis of historical annual data from 1985 to 2015, the simulation results indicate that the proposed model has greater accuracy and reliability than conventional optimization methods. The predicted results of the proposed model also demonstrate that China will demand approximately 4.9, 5.6, and 6.1 billion standard tons of coal equivalent in 2020, 2025, and 2030, respectively.     

中国ESDPM模型及其在交通需求预测中的应用

交通运输是国民经济的基础部门.未来随着国民经济的快速发展和人均收入水平的不断提高,交通运输部门的能源消费量将会以较高的速度增长,在决定我国终端能耗的局面中占据着非常重要的地位.本文应用集合模型方法建立了中国能源服务需求预测模型( Energy service demand projection model,ESDPM),在对未来经济和社会发展进行合理假设的基础上,预测了中国未来一直到2050年的客运和货运周转量以及小汽车保有量,并进行了国家和地区间的比较.结果显示,2005-2050年中国的客运和货运周转量将分别以年均增长率5.9%和5.1%的速度增长,2050年客运和货运周转量将分别达到23.1万亿人·km和74.7万亿t·km.小汽车将随着人均GDP的快速增加呈现出明显的"S"型增长关系,在小汽车拥有率饱和水平选取为0.4时,小汽车保有量将稳定在5.8亿辆左右.     

A case study of an isolated wind powered electricity system meeting 100% of local demand

Using meteorological and electricity demand data for a 4-year period, electricity demand in Shetland was modeled to provide an estimate of the demand over a 30-year period from 1 January 1981. That modeled demand was then compared to estimated wind power output over the same period using the WAsP model. The wind farm output was estimated for a range of sizes of wind farm up to the consented 370 MW Viking Wind Farm in Shetland. Some wind power was available for 94% of the time and the 370 MW wind farm would meet 100% of demand for nearly 80% of the time. The statistics of single and accumulated deficits were calculated for a range of wind farms and estimates of the amount of additional generation capacity and additional power requirements were assessed. The study suggests that with storage, wind power in Shetland could meet all electricity demand in Shetland at around £130 to £150/MWh (excluding subsidy) and with a grid connection allowing the sale of excess power, those costs could be reduced.     

Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials—a combined evaluation of past and future trends

This paper develops a method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The method is based on a combined evaluation of past and future supply and demand trends. By analysing raw material boom and bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying critical market situations. By applying the method, risks for supply shortage may be identified at an early stage. In addition, a numerical evaluation model has been developed for better comparison between various mineral raw materials. Compared to other assessment methods this method uses specific benchmarks for each raw material to better assess supply risks. The method is embedded within a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach.     

The Impact-Likelihood Matrix: A policy tool for behaviour prioritisation

The proliferation of applied behaviour change science over the past decade has provided new ways of thinking about policy making. Policy makers now have a range of frameworks and methods to assist in formulating change for social and environmental benefits. However, the development of strategies for the identification and prioritisation of target behaviours has been less forthcoming. This paper outlines a tool to assist in behaviour selection. Behaviours are assessed for their potential impact on addressing a specific issue, the likelihood of adoption by the target audience and existing participation levels within the target audience. Each of these characteristics is scored, allowing behaviours to be mapped onto a meaningful, visual, matrix for prioritisation. Additional data on behaviour type and the key perceived barriers to participation in each behaviour are layered onto the matrix to provide direction for intervention design. An application of the prioritisation matrix is presented within an environmental context through a case study of water demand management behaviours for domestic consumers in Australia. The prioritisation matrix could provide a decision-making tool for policy makers to assist in the selection of target behaviours to address complex issues.     

OPTIMIZING WELL PLACEMENT IN A COASTAL AQUIFER: OUTER CAPE COD,MASSACHUSETTS1

ABSTRACT: An inverse‐simulation approach is used to determine optimal strategies for developing public water‐supply systems in a shallow, coastal aquifer on the outermost arm of the Cape Cod peninsula in Massachusetts. Typically a forward simulation (or “trial and error”) approach is used to find best pumping strategies, but the chances of finding success with this tact diminish as the number of potential options grows large. Well locations and pumping rates are optimized with respect to: (1) providing sufficient water to areas of water‐quality impairment, (2) minimizing impacts to nearby surface waters, (3) preventing saltwater contamination due to overpumping, and (4) minimizing financial cost of well development. Potential well sites and water‐supply scenarios are separated into “politically‐based” and “resource‐based” categories to gain insight into the degree that pre‐existing political boundaries hinder best management practices. The approach provides a promising tool in transboundary water‐resources settings because it allows stakeholders to find solutions that best meet everyone's goals, as opposed to pursuing options that will create conflict, or are less than optimal.     

五日生化需氧量(BOD5)测定方法探讨

本文针对GB／T7488-1987《水质五日生化需氧量(BOD5)稀释与接种法》中BOD5的测定和计算时接种稀释水的空白扣除方法，提出了直接测接种液的BOD5值，按接种液的比例在水样中进行扣除的方法，提高了BOD5值的准确性。更能反应BOD5的真实性。