基于组合模型的能源需求预测

能源是人类生存和发展的重要物质基础,也是当今国际政治、经济、军事、外交关注的焦点。能源需求预测是合理制定能源规划的基础。能源需求预测的模型很多,总的来说,可以分为单一模型预测和组合模型预测。本文在分析几种常用单一模型的优缺点和适用范围的基础上,建立BP神经网络与灰色GM的优化组合模型,对江苏省未来十五年煤炭和石油的需求量进行预测。结果表明:①随着经济的发展,未来江苏省对煤炭和石油的需求量逐渐增加,其中煤炭从2008年的19 601.39万t标准煤增加到2020年的25 615.26万t标准煤,年均增长率为1.81%;石油从2008年的2 628.64万t标准煤增加到2020年的3 532.60万t标准煤,年均增长率为1.36%;②基于BP网络与GM(1,1)的组合模型克服了单一模型的缺点,实现了优化组合模型"过去一段时间内组合预测误差最小"的原则,且预测结果误差较小,不仅适用于能源的中长期预测,还可以推广到其他领域。     

COD快速测定法

以用时30min的半微量密闭微波消解法取代COD国标测定中的重铬酸钾回流法,改进后的方法精密度小于5．15％,准确度达到102％,COD测定下限为51mg／L。该法节省时间、取样量少、成本低,适用于大批量水样的快速测定。     

面向救灾物资需求特征的自然灾害应急响应

对救灾物资需求的数量、时间、地域、结构和运输特征进行分析,得到自然灾害应急响应下的救灾物资配送方案。通过选择合适的属性指标表达灾区及物资的差异性,并使用多目标规划的方法构建了物资配送模型,实现救灾物资在灾区的合理、公平分配。以玉树地震关键救援期下的救灾物资配送为例检验物资配送模型,结果在灾区紧急指数较高的地区反映了灾区救灾物资的差异性,而在灾区紧急指数较低且相差不大的地区体现了物资配送的公平性。与传统商业物流配送模型的优化结果比较,验证了救灾物资配送模型的有效性与合理性。     

HAZOP分析中LOPA的应用研究

通过分析危险与可操作性研究(HAZOP)方法的不足和保护层分析(LOPA)方法的功能,提出将LOPA融入HAZOP分析中,能进一步提高HAZOP的事故预防能力和丰富HAZOP的分析结果。介绍LOPA基本方法,阐述LOPA融入HAZOP的机理、衔接关系及分析步骤,并通过一个化工工艺流程危险性分析实例说明LOPA的作用及如何将LOPA融入HAZOP分析中。结果表明:在HAZOP分析中融入LOPA方法,能实现对现有保护措施的可靠性进行量化评估,确定其消除或降低风险的能力,从而寻求是否需要附加减少风险的安全保护措施。     

工业废水排放最少化清洁集成技术的研究

从总结国内外经济入手,对我国实现需水量零增长的必要性进行了论述,预言２１首先在工业部门实现需水量的零增长,而实现这种零增长的必要条件是加强工业废水排放量最少化清洁集成技术。指出实施这种集成技术需要有能够推动和刺激该技术的配套政策和法令,以及具有高素质的管理人员。     

基于案例推理的化工园区应急资源需求预测

为确定化工园区突发事故的应急资源需求,提出了一种基于案例推理的化工园区应急资源需求预测方法。该方法主要由三部分组成:(1)基于案例推理的模型构建;(2)化工园区事故的案例描述;(3)基于人工神经网络的案例适应。最后,以石化园区火灾爆炸事故的应急资源需求预测验证该方法的有效性。研究表明,该方法可以实时地对化工园区应急资源需求进行预测,为化工园区的应急资源储备和配置提供支持。     

生物接触氧化法处理污水的动力学分析

对生物接触氧化法处理污水进行动力学分析,通过一相说对生物接触氧化法反应器底物降解、微生物增长以及需氧量模式进行了推导.     

Bacteria Associated with Degradation of Wastes from Rubber Processing Industry

An investigation of bacteria found in rubber processing wastes was carried out. Rubber wastes which include effluents from washing tanks and natural rubber waste serum (NRWS) were obtained from Greenpark Rubber Industries Limited, Umutu, Delta State, Nigeria. Five bacterial species were isolated from the wastes. These include Arthrobacter sp., Bacillus sp., Lactobacillus sp., Psuedomonas sp. and Streptococcus sp. Apart from these a number of coliforms were also encountered. Arthrobacter sp. was found to be the dominant species and its potential to utilize rubber hydrocarbon was determined. It was found that the growth of Arthrobacter in both effluent and NRWS was related to pH with the highest growths recorded at pH of 8.5 and 7.5 for effluent and NRWS respectively. It was also found that at controlled pH of 7.5 in NRWS, the growth of Arthrobacter was consistent and was accompanied by a reduction in biological oxygen demand (BOD) which was the the main index for measuring pollution strength of the wastes. It is therefore being recommended that rubber wastes be treated with Arthrobacter under controlled pH to reduce their pollution potentials before disposal. It is however suggested that a combined biological treatment using both Arthrobacter and Mucor as was earlier suggested be used. It is also recommended that chemical flocculants should be used to remove suspended solids in the effluent. A combination of these two cheap methods will go a long way in alleviating the problems of pollution caused by rubber effluents from some tropical rubber processing factories.     

Effect of Hydrogen Peroxide on Industrial Waste Water Effluents: A Case Study of Warri Refining and Petrochemical Industry

This paper assessed the composition of waste water effluent generated by a Petrochemical industry and a treatment system developed to improve the quality of the discharge water. Parameters as pH, COD, TSS chloride and lead ions were analysed and treated comparatively using hydrogen peroxide. At pH 8.0 post treatment analysis showed a COD – 96 mg/l TSS – 48 mg/l Cl – 798.75 mg/l and Pb²⁺ – 2 mg/l for treatment D where 40 g/l of alum was used on 30% solution of H₂O₂ compared to systems A-C. Process treatment included activated clay with sodium ion resin which at pH 6.8 had COD – 52 mg/l, TSS – 10 mg/l, Cl – 510 mg/l and Pb²⁺ – 0.070 mg/l. This system has an overall efficiency of 79.0% TSS, 45.83% COD, 97.5% Pb²⁺ and 36.1% Cl reduction. Characteristics obtained for the study has a higher efficiency compared with FEPA and WHO standard for similar industrial water treatment.     

Driving difficulties as reported by older drivers with mild cognitive impairment and without neurological impairment

Objective: Considerable evidence indicates that medical conditions prevalent among older individuals lead to impairments in visual, cognitive, or psychomotor functions needed to drive safely. The purpose of this study was to explore the factors determining driving difficulties as seen from the viewpoint of 30 older drivers with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 30 age-matched controls without cognitive impairment.

Methods: Perceptions of driving difficulties from both groups were examined using data from an extensive questionnaire. Samples of drivers diagnosed with MCI and age-matched controls were asked to report the frequency with which they experienced driving difficulties due to functional deficits and knowledge of new traffic rules and traffic signs.

Results: The analysis revealed that 2 factors underlie MCI perceptions of driving difficulties, representing (1) difficulties associated with late detection combined with slowed response to relevant targets in the peripheral field of view and (2) difficulties associated with divided attention between tasks requiring switching from automatic to conscious processing particularly of long duration. The analysis for healthy controls revealed 3 factors representing (1) difficulties in estimating speed and distance of approaching vehicles in complex (attention-dividing) high-information-load conditions; (2) difficulties in moving head, neck, and feet; and (3) difficulties in switching from automatic responses to needing to use cognitive processing in new or unexpected situations.

Conclusions: Though both group analyses show difficulties with switching from automatic to decision making, the difficulties are different. For the control group, the difficulty in switching involves switching in new or unexpected situations associated with high-information-load conditions, whereas this switching difficulty for the MCI group is associated with divided attention between easier tasks requiring switching. These findings underline the ability of older drivers (with MCI and without cognitive impairment) to indicate probable impairments in various driving skills. The patterns of difficulties perceived by the MCI group and the age-matched healthy control group are indicative of demanding driving situations that may merit special attention for road designers and road safety engineers. They may also be considered in the design of older drivers’ fitness to drive evaluations, training programs, and/or vehicle technologies that provide for older driver assistance.