基于现代信息技术的城市灾害应急管理系统

城市灾害应急管理系统是一项复杂的大系统工程。本文着重从应急管理过程中的应急资源调配、应急预案制定等方面阐述了现代信息技术在城市灾害应急管理中的应用与优势。认为应急管理信息系统的建立目的不是为了预测和估算,而应是当灾害发生时,对已造成的灾情局面做出快速的辅助决策支持。基于此,利用SuperMapObject5.0,Visual Basic6.0,SQL Server2000等现代信息技术软件,以辅助决策、资源快速查询以及生命线管网易损处调查为目的,本文建立了一个局部地区灾害应急管理信息系统。系统的数据库建立更突出了为应急管理服务所需的基础信息、空间数据、应急预案和应急资源等信息划分方式;结合已有的震害预测理论和方法,开发了供水系统和交通系统的震害预测模块,事先为灾害应急决策提供可能的震害信息。系统的开发过程进一步证明了GIS在城市灾害应急管理中有着直观显示、容易操作、辅助准确决策等优势。     

固体废物沥青路面利用的环境风险评估

固体废物用于沥青路面建设具有广阔的发展前景,但由于固体废物中含有重金属等有害物质,其作为沥青路面利用的首要前提是环境安全。概述了沥青路面建设中固体废物的主要利用方式和现状,总结了固体废物中的有害物质在道路利用时造成的地下水和大气环境风险的评估方法,并介绍了常用于固体废物和水泥混凝土中重金属的浸出方法。通过总结沥青-集料的黏附性机理,以及目前固体废物道路利用中的重金属浸出方法,讨论了固体废物沥青路面利用环境风险评估中污染物释放的定量表征方法(浸出方法)的适宜性。结果表明:由于缺乏针对特定场景污染物浸出方法的研究,固体废物道路利用的环境风险评价只能通过实验室模拟和借鉴国外模型的方法进行。因此,固体废物沥青路面利用污染物的浸出方法应还原实际应用场景,需考虑车轮荷载、紫外线照射等因素。指出未来的研究方向为制定针对固体废物再利用领域的环境风险评价标准。     

中国环评制度有效性评估指标的思考

中国环评制度备受关注,亦饱受争议。如何客观看待一项制度,其有效性是重要的判定依据。环评有效性体现在制度建设、制度执行和发挥效力全过程,具有多个维度的内涵。围绕经济、社会、环境可持续发展目标,从制度有效性、程序有效性、实质有效性和认知有效性4个维度,按照“制度基础→实践过程→发挥作用→社会认知”逻辑,探索构建了中国环评制度有效性评估框架,并结合中国环评制度设计和运行模式,提出了一套科学、适用,兼具可操作和灵活性的中国环评有效性评估指标,为客观系统看待中国环评制度提供了思路,也为建立中国环评制度有效性跟踪评估机制提供参考,支撑环评制度改革优化。

     

清洁生产:由生产领域扩展至消费领域——结合《中华人民共和国清洁生产促进法》相关规定评析之

本文通过分析清洁生产和消费的含义,指出清洁生产的调整范围包括消费环节.我国《清洁生产促进法》的内容体现了清洁生产从生产领域扩展到消费领域这一新动向.本文论证了这一新发展的正当性和合理性,最后结合具体法条进行分析,指出相关制度手段和意义所在.     

泥石流入汇的危险性判别指标

通过对比单沟和区域泥石流危险性的评估方法 ,提出了利用影响度、危险度和危害度 3项指标判别汇流区泥石流入汇危险性的设想 ,分析了泥石流入汇可能引起堵江的影响因子。作为尝试 ,给出了判别指标的计算公式 ,经实例验证具有较好的实用性 ,可作为规划设计的技术依据。     

芳香酸稀溶液的络合萃取研究

络合萃取法分离极性有机物稀溶液具有高效性和高选择性。本文利用三辛胺或磷酸三丁酯为络合剂,四氯化碳、三氯甲烷、正辛醇或煤油为稀释剂,实验测定了苯甲酸、邻硝基苯甲酸稀溶液的萃取相平衡分配系数,讨论了影响因素。     

Deposition Inputs,Water Quality and Liming Effectiveness

Rainfall quantity and quality, and stream and loch water quality have been monitored throughout the Loch Fleet Project. This has allowed the effects of liming of parts of the catchment to be monitored, and assessments made of the effectiveness and duration of these treatments. Rainfall over 1989–1993 fluctuated around the long-term average of 2100 mm. Over this time, year by year variations in acid or sulphate loading from deposition was evident and quite substantial. There was no trend, however, reflecting reductions in national sulphur emissions. Liming parts of the catchment in 1986 increased stream and loch water pH and calcium concentrations and reduced inorganic aluminium concentrations. Improved stream and loch water quality has been maintained for more than eight years since liming.     

Hunting Effects on Favourable Conservation Status of Highly Inbred Swedish Wolves

The wolf (Canis lupus) is classified as endangered in Sweden by the Swedish Species Information Centre, which is the official authority for threat classification. The present population, which was founded in the early 1980s, descends from 5 individuals. It is isolated and highly inbred, and on average individuals are more related than siblings. Hunts have been used by Swedish authorities during 2010 and 2011 to reduce the population size to its upper tolerable level of 210 wolves. European Union (EU) biodiversity legislation requires all member states to promote a concept called “favourable conservation status” (FCS) for a series of species including the wolf. Swedish national policy stipulates maintenance of viable populations with sufficient levels of genetic variation of all naturally occurring species. Hunting to reduce wolf numbers in Sweden is currently not in line with national and EU policy agreements and will make genetically based FCS criteria less achievable for this species. We suggest that to reach FCS for the wolf in Sweden the following criteria need to be met: (1) a well‐connected, large, subdivided wolf population over Scandinavia, Finland, and the Russian Karelia‐Kola region should be reestablished, (2) genetically effective size (N_e) of this population is in the minimum range of N_e = 500–1000, (3) Sweden harbors a part of this total population that substantially contributes to the total N_e and that is large enough to not be classified as threatened genetically or according to IUCN criteria, and (4) average inbreeding levels in the Swedish population are <0.1. Efectos de la Cacería sobre el Estatus de Conservación Favorable de Lobos Suecos con Endogamia Alta     

中国沿海区域旅游化与生态环境耦合度分析及预测

中国沿海区域旅游产业发展主要以海洋资源和环境为依托,故处理好旅游产业发展与生态环境的关系是中国沿海旅游产业实现可持续发展的基础和前提。区域旅游化程度可以反映区域旅游产业发展水平,为探求中国沿海区域旅游产业发展与生态环境之间关系的态势和规律,首先,在构建中国沿海区域旅游化程度和生态环境质量水平的指标体系的基础上,以2000—2010年沿海11省(区)统计数据为基础,运用加权主成分TOPSIS法分别对两个系统进行综合评价;其次,基于物理学中的耦合模型,对中国沿海区域旅游化程度和生态环境质量的耦合度及其协调指数进行计算,并分析它们时空格局及其演变特征;最后,基于灰色系统理论,运用GM(1,1)预测模型对中国沿海区域未来15 a中国沿海区域旅游化水平与生态环境耦合度进行预测。研究结果发现:中国沿海区域旅游产业与生态环境两个系统在2000—2010年间一直处于拮抗期,但山东省、浙江省、江苏省和广西省将在2015年前先后由低水平的拮抗期跨入良性耦合阶段,而其他省(区)将处于并将长期处于拮抗期,且天津市、辽宁省和海南省两个系统的耦合度有下降趋势。     

Monitoring,imperfect detection,and risk optimization of a Tasmanian devil insurance population

Most species are imperfectly detected during biological surveys, which creates uncertainty around their abundance or presence at a given location. Decision makers managing threatened or pest species are regularly faced with this uncertainty. Wildlife diseases can drive species to extinction; thus, managing species with disease is an important part of conservation. Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) is one such disease that led to the listing of the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) as endangered. Managers aim to maintain devils in the wild by establishing disease‐free insurance populations at isolated sites. Often a resident DFTD‐affected population must first be removed. In a successful collaboration between decision scientists and wildlife managers, we used an accessible population model to inform monitoring decisions and facilitate the establishment of an insurance population of devils on Forestier Peninsula. We used a Bayesian catch‐effort model to estimate population size of a diseased population from removal and camera trap data. We also analyzed the costs and benefits of declaring the area disease‐free prior to reintroduction and establishment of a healthy insurance population. After the monitoring session in May–June 2015, the probability that all devils had been successfully removed was close to 1, even when we accounted for a possible introduction of a devil to the site. Given this high probability and the baseline cost of declaring population absence prematurely, we found it was not cost‐effective to carry out any additional monitoring before introducing the insurance population. Considering these results within the broader context of Tasmanian devil management, managers ultimately decided to implement an additional monitoring session before the introduction. This was a conservative decision that accounted for uncertainty in model estimates and for the broader nonmonetary costs of mistakenly declaring the area disease‐free.