后危机时代我国产业升级的约束条件及对策研究

产业升级是一项系统工程,目前面临一些约束条件,制约了产业升级的成效。本文分析了三个方面的约束因素:有效需求约束、供给约束、制度约束,并提出新形势下的产业结构调整对策:调整需求结构、要素投入结构、分配结构,扩大内需;调整三次产业结构;构建有利于产业结构调整的体制机制。     

近49年中国夏季制冷度日数的变化

利用全国531个气象站1960~2008年逐日平均气温资料,分析了近49 a来我国夏季制冷度日数的变化趋势,并以浙江省为例分析了制冷度日数与夏季空调降温电力负荷的关系。主要结论如下：我国日平均温度等于或高于26℃的日数（1971~2000年平均）大于10 d,夏季有制冷需求的站点主要分布在新疆、四川盆地和太行山 巫山 雪峰山一线以东地区,以及云南干热河谷地区。1960~2008年我国黄河以北地区夏季有制冷需求的站点6~9月平均气温从20世纪90年代中期开始呈现出较明显的上升趋势,使得制冷日数和度日数都相应增加;黄河以南、南岭以北地区近49 a来6~9月平均气温线性趋势不明显,制冷度日数变化不大;南岭以南地区6~9月气温持续上升,夏季制冷度日数的增加最为显著。以浙江省为例的分析显示,制冷度日数与夏季空调降温电力负荷有很好的线性相关关系,可以用来预测降温耗电量。
     

A case study of an isolated wind powered electricity system meeting 100% of local demand

Using meteorological and electricity demand data for a 4-year period, electricity demand in Shetland was modeled to provide an estimate of the demand over a 30-year period from 1 January 1981. That modeled demand was then compared to estimated wind power output over the same period using the WAsP model. The wind farm output was estimated for a range of sizes of wind farm up to the consented 370 MW Viking Wind Farm in Shetland. Some wind power was available for 94% of the time and the 370 MW wind farm would meet 100% of demand for nearly 80% of the time. The statistics of single and accumulated deficits were calculated for a range of wind farms and estimates of the amount of additional generation capacity and additional power requirements were assessed. The study suggests that with storage, wind power in Shetland could meet all electricity demand in Shetland at around £130 to £150/MWh (excluding subsidy) and with a grid connection allowing the sale of excess power, those costs could be reduced.     

Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials—a combined evaluation of past and future trends

This paper develops a method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The method is based on a combined evaluation of past and future supply and demand trends. By analysing raw material boom and bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying critical market situations. By applying the method, risks for supply shortage may be identified at an early stage. In addition, a numerical evaluation model has been developed for better comparison between various mineral raw materials. Compared to other assessment methods this method uses specific benchmarks for each raw material to better assess supply risks. The method is embedded within a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach.     

京津冀产业碳排放强度变化及驱动因素研究

为探讨京津冀地区温室气体排放强度变化的影响因素,采用对数平均迪式分解模型及归因分析(LMDI-Attribution)方法,基于1996—2014年数据从细分行业角度进行研究。针对温室气体排放强度作产业结构、能源强度和排放因子三因素LMDI乘法分解,对温室气体排放强度变化的影响效应作归因分析,量化4个行业对分解因素影响效应的贡献,得到以下主要结论:1996—2014年京津冀地区温室气体排放强度主要呈现下降趋势,累计下降23.05%。其中,能源强度是温室气体排放强度下降的主导因素,其影响效应为-61.18%,对这一影响效应贡献最大的是工业,并且四大经济部门均通过能源强度在不同程度上使得温室气体排放强度有所减小,可见"阶梯电价"、"千家企业节能项目"、"十大重点节能项目"等相关政策在工业发展中对提高能源效率的作用明显。产业结构使得温室气体排放强度增加23.53%,其主要贡献者是工业,说明"工业产品出口退税率调整"等一系列政策的效果不明显;然而农业则使得温室气体排放强度降低,贡献值为3.09%。碳排放因子在1996—2014年间对温室气体排放强度的影响为60.47%,是京津冀地区温室气体排放强度增加的主要因素,说明京津冀地区的能源结构不合理。工业对这一效应的贡献最大为55.97%。可见,工业在京津冀地区的温室气体减排工作中起到最为关键的作用。     

Vetoing the future: political constraints and renewable energy

Despite the increased importance of and attention to renewable energy, its share in the overall energy mix has varied significantly across countries and over time. There are many determinants of clean energy transitions; this study focuses on political constraints. Here it is argued that political systems that have fewer political constraints have fewer access points through which powerful status quo veto players can slow the progress of clean energy reforms. To test the theory, a hierarchical model is applied on a dataset of 125 countries over four decades. The results provide significant support for the theory. Furthermore, the effects for political constraints hold even when we distinguish between hydro and non-hydro renewable sources and control for regime type. This study builds on research that recognizes the importance of politics in understanding the challenges and opportunities of clean energy reform.     

A-O工艺污泥疏水比率与污泥活性的关系

通过A-O工艺对印染废水的降解处理,研究了不同污泥活性下微生物疏水比率和COD去除率的变化规律.结果表明,污泥活性指标ATP浓度与微生物疏水性之间存在一定关系,并对COD去除率产生一定的影响.缺氧污泥的活性指标ATP浓度在0.38～0.77 mg/L范围时,污泥微生物的疏水性最好且疏水比率最高值为84％,COD的去除率最高,为70.01％;好氧污泥的活性指标ATP浓度在0.86～2.17 mg/L范围时,污泥微生物的疏水性最好,疏水比率最高值为75％,COD的去除率最高为96.2％.     

氨/硫铵法烟气脱硫技术特点及市场前景分析

通过对我国二氧化硫污染现状及控制要求的分析,提出了氨/硫铵法作为一种资源回收型脱硫方法,具有反应速度快、工艺流程简单、吸收剂利用率高、适用范围广及可实现资源回收利用的特点;以工程案例的形式分析了氨/硫铵法的技术经济指标,并对氨/硫铵法的应用前景和市场需求进行了预测。     

Temporal and Spatial Variability of Water Supply Stress in the Haihe River Basin,Northern China1

Ji, Yuhe, Liding Chen, and Ranhao Sun, 2012. Temporal and Spatial Variability of Water Supply Stress in the Haihe River Basin, Northern China. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 999‐1007. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00671.x Abstract: Water resources are becoming increasingly stressed under the influence of climate change and population growth in the Haihe River Basin, Northern China. Assessing the temporal and spatial variability of water supply stress is urgently needed to mitigate water crisis caused by water resource reallocation. Water supply and use data were compiled for the time period of 1998‐2003 in this synthesis study. The Water Supply Stress Index (WSSI) as defined as Water Demand/Water Supply was used to quantitate whether water supply could meet the demand of human activities across the study region. We found a large spatial gradient of water supply stress in the study region, being much higher in the eastern subbasins (ranging from 2.56 to 4.31) than the west subbasins (ranging from 0.56 to 1.92). The eastern plain region not only suffered more serious water supply stress but also had a much higher interannual variability than the western hilly region. The uneven spatial distribution of water supply stress might result from the distribution of land use, population, and climate. Future climate change and rapid economic development are likely to aggravate the existing water crisis in the study region.     

阴极液及底物浓度对AFB-MFC同步废水处理及产电性能影响

为了提高厌氧流化床微生物燃料电池（AFB-MFC）的性能,并为双室MFC寻找价廉、易得、无污染的阴极液,在曝气量16～24 L/h、温度（35±2）℃、回流量10.2 L/h、阴极底边距阴极室内底部17.3 cm、外电阻250 Ω、水力停留时间（HRT）14.0～14.9 h以及进水pH 7.81～8.37下,研究了阴极液及底物浓度对系统产电及废水处理性能的影响。结果表明,使用缓冲溶液、阳极室出水和自来水作阴极液时,自来水的产电性能最佳,阴极液种类不影响系统有机基质的去除。以自来水为阴极液时,阴极液pH及电导率随运行时间增加而增加,COD去除率为80.11%～89.29%,输出电压及功率密度开始随运行时间增加而增加,之后稳定在440～452 mV和48.40～51.08 mW/m²之间。增加底物浓度对COD去除率影响不大,而输出电压及功率密度随底物浓度增加而下降;底物COD浓度由3 307.09 mg/L增至9 520 mg/L时,COD去除率在85.77%～94.44%之间,输出电压及功率密度则分别由449 mV和50.40 mW/m²下降至406 mV和41.21 mW/m²。自来水作阴极液可避免二次污染及阴极液对阳极室微生物的影响,并得到高的产电能力。