How to dissolve fixed‐pie bias in negotiation? Social antecedents and the mediating effect of mental‐model adjustment

Fixed‐pie bias, defined as the erroneous belief that the other negotiation party's interest is directly opposite to one's own, has been a consistent hurdle that negotiators must overcome in their efforts to achieve optimal negotiation outcomes. In this study, we explore the underlying cognitive mechanism and the social antecedents of fixed‐pie bias reduction in negotiation. Using data from a negotiation simulation with 256 participants, we found that mental‐model adjustments made by negotiators could effectively decrease fixed‐pie bias. More interestingly, we also found that negotiators were less likely to reduce fixed‐pie bias when negotiating with an in‐group member than with an out‐group member but only under a high accountability condition. Finally, we found that mental‐model adjustment mediated the effects of the aforementioned social antecedents (in‐groupness and accountability) on reduced fixed‐pie bias. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using unobtrusive sensors to measure and minimize Hawthorne effects: Evidence from cookstoves

People act differently when they know they are being observed. This phenomenon, the Hawthorne effect, can bias estimates of program impacts. Unobtrusive sensors substituting for human observation can alleviate this bias. To demonstrate this potential, we used temperature loggers to measure fuel-efficient cookstoves as a replacement for three-stone fires. We find a large Hawthorne effect: when in-person measurement begins, participants increase fuel-efficient stove use approximately three hours/day (53%) and reduce three-stone fire use by approximately two hours/day (29%). When in-person measurement ends, participants reverse those changes. We then examine how this Hawthorne effect biases estimates of fuel use and pollution concentrations. Our results reinforce concerns about Hawthorne effects, especially in policy-relevant impact evaluations. By measuring the Hawthorne effect we permit researchers to correct for the bias it introduces.     

Using Expert Opinion Surveys to Rank Threats to Endangered Species: A Case Study with Sea Turtles

Abstract: Little is known about how specific anthropogenic hazards affect the biology of organisms. Quantifying the effect of regional hazards is particularly challenging for species such as sea turtles because they are migratory, difficult to study, long lived, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation, a technique used to synthesize opinions of experts while assessing uncertainty around those views, has been in use for several decades in the social science and risk assessment sectors. We conducted an internet‐based survey to quantify expert opinion on the relative magnitude of anthropogenic hazards to sea turtle populations at the regional level. Fisheries bycatch and coastal development were most often ranked as the top hazards to sea turtle species in a geographic region. Nest predation and direct take followed as the second and third greatest threats, respectively. Survey results suggest most experts believe sea turtles are threatened by multiple factors, including substantial at‐sea threats such as fisheries bycatch. Resources invested by the sea turtle community, however, appear biased toward terrestrial‐based impacts. Results from the survey are useful for conservation planning because they provide estimates of relative impacts of hazards on sea turtles and a measure of consensus on the magnitude of those impacts among researchers and practitioners. Our survey results also revealed patterns of expert bias, which we controlled for in our analysis. Respondents with no experience with respect to a sea turtle species tended to rank hazards affecting that sea turtle species higher than respondents with experience. A more‐striking pattern was with hazard‐based expertise: the more experience a respondent had with a specific hazard, the higher the respondent scored the impact of that hazard on sea turtle populations. Bias‐controlled expert opinion surveys focused on threatened species and their hazards can help guide and expedite species recovery plans.     

Relative costs of conserving threatened species across taxonomic groups

Bias toward legally protecting and prioritizing charismatic taxonomic groups, such as mammals and birds, and against others, such as insects and plants, is well documented. However, the relative costs of conserving various taxonomic groups and the potential of these costs to interact with existing biases have been much less explored. We analyzed conservation programs across more than 2,000 species in 3 countries to investigate the costs of conserving species within taxonomic groups and how these costs might affect conservation planning. For each data set, we tested for differences in mean annual cost among taxonomic groups. For the data set from the United States, recovery plans differed in duration, so we also tested for differences in total costs among taxonomic groups. Although the costs for individual species varied widely, there were strong international consistencies. For example, mammals cost 8–26 times more on average to conserve than plants and 13–19 times more to conserve than aquatic invertebrates. On average, bird species cost 5–30 times more to conserve than plants and 6–14 times more to conserve than aquatic invertebrates. These cost differences could exacerbate unequal resource allocation among taxonomic groups such that more charismatic groups both receive more attention and require more resources, leading to neglect of other taxonomic groups.     

Biodiversity conservation research challenges in the 21st century: A review of publishing trends in 2000 and 2011

The Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020 recognizes the increasing importance of scientific knowledge to support conservation policies and decision making. In this study, we assessed the tendency of such knowledge in the first decade of the 21st century. We carried out a systematic review of publications in biodiversity conservation, considering the following aspects: type of research, main topic of study, object of study (i.e. biodiversity organizational level, taxonomic groups and ecosystems), pressures and drivers of change, as well as geographical distribution. In total, 966 publications were analyzed within the three journals with higher academic reach in the field under study: Biodiversity & Conservation, Biological Conservation, and Conservation Biology. Our results show that there are several biases in scientific knowledge associated with the object of study, and analyzed drivers of changes, as well as geographical distribution. However, research trends are not uniform along the first decade of 21st century, as there are some differences between 2000 and 2011 regarding the main topic of the study, the spatial scale and geographical region, and the analyzed ecosystems. We finally discuss the implications of current knowledge trends in biodiversity conservation for achieving the targets delineated by the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020.     

Testing the presence of marine protected areas against their ability to reduce pressures on biodiversity

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are the preferred tool for preventing marine biodiversity loss, as reflected in international protected area targets. Although the area covered by MPAs is expanding, there is a concern that opposition from resource users is driving them into already low-use locations, whereas high-pressure areas remain unprotected, which has serious implications for biodiversity conservation. We tested the spatial relationships between different human-induced pressures on marine biodiversity and global MPAs. We used global, modeled pressure data and the World Database on Protected Areas to calculate the levels of 15 different human-induced pressures inside and outside the world's MPAs. We fitted binomial generalized linear models to the data to determine whether each pressure had a positive or negative effect on the likelihood of an area being protected and whether this effect changed with different categories of protection. Pelagic and artisanal fishing, shipping, and introductions of invasive species by ships had a negative relationship with protection, and this relationship persisted under even the least restrictive categories of protection (e.g., protected areas classified as category VI under the International Union for Conservation of Nature, a category that permits sustainable use). In contrast, pressures from dispersed, diffusive sources (e.g., pollution and ocean acidification) had positive relationships with protection. Our results showed that MPAs are systematically established in areas where there is low political opposition, limiting the capacity of existing MPAs to manage key drivers of biodiversity loss. We suggest that conservation efforts focus on biodiversity outcomes and effective reduction of pressures rather than prescribing area-based targets, and that alternative approaches to conservation are needed in areas where protection is not feasible.     

The Effects of Discussion of Familiar or Non-Familiar Information on Opinions of Anthropogenic Climate Change

ABSTRACT

The study found that encountering new information in an online chat rather than information that participants already knew and were familiar with was more likely to reduce support for the view that climate change is due to anthropogenic causes, even though the majority of the presented information supported anthropogenic causes. Participants reported feeling more competent and knowledgeable about the topic and felt less ostracized from others in the chat when participants were already familiar with information others discussed than when information discussed by others in the chat was new information. However, they viewed other chat members as more competent and knowledgeable when those others mentioned new information. Results are discussed within knowledge deficit model of science communication and the bias for common information.     

A quantitative global review of species population monitoring

Species monitoring, defined here as the repeated, systematic collection of data to detect long-term changes in the populations of wild species, is a vital component of conservation practice and policy. We created a database of nearly 1200 schemes, ranging in start date from 1800 to 2018, to review spatial, temporal, taxonomic, and methodological patterns in global species monitoring. We identified monitoring schemes through standardized web searches, an online survey of stakeholders, in-depth national searches in a sample of countries, and a review of global biodiversity databases. We estimated the total global number of monitoring schemes operating at 3300–15,000. Since 2000, there has been a sharp increase in the number of new schemes being initiated in lower- and middle-income countries and in megadiverse countries, but a decrease in high-income countries. The total number of monitoring schemes in a country and its per capita gross domestic product were strongly, positively correlated. Schemes that were active in 2018 had been running for an average of 21 years in high-income countries, compared with 13 years in middle-income countries and 10 years in low-income countries. In high-income countries, over one-half of monitoring schemes received government funding, but this was less than one-quarter in low-income countries. Data collection was undertaken partly or wholly by volunteers in 37% of schemes, and such schemes covered significantly more sites and species than those undertaken by professionals alone. Birds were by far the most widely monitored taxonomic group, accounting for around half of all schemes, but this bias declined over time. Monitoring in most taxonomic groups remains sparse and uncoordinated, and most of the data generated are elusive and unlikely to feed into wider biodiversity conservation processes. These shortcomings could be addressed by, for example, creating an open global meta-database of biodiversity monitoring schemes and enhancing capacity for species monitoring in countries with high biodiversity. Article impact statement: Species population monitoring for conservation purposes remains strongly biased toward a few vertebrate taxa in wealthier countries.     

碱性过硫酸钾法测定总氮的精密度偏性实验分析

通过碱性过硫酸钾法测定总氮的精密度偏性实验及其结果分析,提出测定总氮的过程中应注意功能室的环境要求及一些细小的分析细节,并提出相应的建议.     

籽粒苋苹果酸酶(NAD-ME)基因密码子偏好性分析

遗传密码子是生命信息的基本遗传单位,每种氨基酸对应1～6个同义密码子.特定物种在长期进化中形成了适应自身基因组环境的密码子使用偏性.运用CHIPS、CUSP和CodonW程序分析自主克隆的籽粒苋NAD-ME基因的密码子偏好性,并与马铃薯等7种植物的ME基因密码子偏好性进行比较,以期为该基因在作物遗传改良中选择合适的受体植物提供依据.结果表明,籽粒苋NAD-ME基因偏好于以A或T结尾的密码子,其它几种被比较作物的ME基因也有同样的趋势,但双子叶植物的偏好性更强.基于NAD-ME基因的密码子使用偏性的系统聚类分析表明,籽粒苋与马铃薯、拟南芥、葡萄、蓖麻、毛果杨等双子叶植物聚为1类,玉米和高粱这2个单子叶植物聚为1类,预示籽粒苋NAD-ME基因更适合导入马铃薯等双子叶植物.对籽粒苋NAD-ME基因的密码子偏好性与大肠杆菌和酵母的基因组密码子偏好性进行比较,发现均存在差异,与大肠杆菌的差异高于酵母,表明酵母表达系统要优于大肠杆菌表达系统.若要进一步提高籽粒苋NAD-ME基因在大肠杆菌或酵母中的表达水平,尚需对其密码子进行优化.