生产部门提高能源效率的宏观能耗回弹分析

提高能源效率已成为我国节能减排政策的重点,但是由于经济系统内在的调整机制作用,在宏观层面所能实现的节能效果可能不及微观技术层面能源效率提高的程度,甚至还会诱发更多的能源消耗,该现象被称为“宏观能耗回弹”效应.本文通过构建一个中国环境资源CGE模型,测算生产部门提高能源效率的宏观能耗回弹效应.结果显示,能源效率提高5％后,短期回弹效应为52.38％,节能效果仅达到技术层面预期的一半左右;长期回弹效应达178.61％,在高耗能部门竞争力提高、耗能产品出口扩张和经济增长的推动下,节能效果不但被完全抵消,总能耗还进一步增加.因此,生产部门提高能源效率在短期内确实能够降低我国能源消耗,但是由于回弹效应的存在,长期来看,在技术层面“产量相同投入更少”的努力反映到宏观经济层面则转变成“生产更多投入更多”,并且加剧了我国经济高耗能的偏好,提高能源效率所引发的产出增长和结构调整对能耗增加的刺激作用可能最终会抵消或者超过提高能源效率的节能效果.     

中国能源生态足迹的时空动态特征及效应分析

运用生态足迹方法计算出1990—2007年中国能源消费的生态足迹。在此基础上,分析了能源足迹强度(EFI)、能源足迹生态压力(EPIEF)的时空动态变化特征。结果表明,近20年来我国能源足迹波动上升,能源消费结构有所改善,但煤炭足迹仍占主导,近几年又有回升趋势;能源足迹强度呈幂指数衰减,能源利用效率不断提高;EPIEF呈上升趋势,说明能源利用对自然生态系统的压力逐渐增大。在空间分布上,各省区能源足迹差异显著,能源足迹强度由西向东逐渐降低,而EPIEF则由西向东呈增大趋势。依据EPIEF指数将中国30个省区划分为能源足迹生态盈余区(EPIEF1)、生态轻度亏损区(1EPIEF5)和生态严重亏损区(EPIEF5)3种类型。     

高压储氢系统泄漏爆炸事故的动力学演化

为研究燃料氢气泄漏、爆炸的特性和规律,预防高压储氢系统中氢气泄漏爆炸事故发生,以加氢站为背景,数值仿真45 MPa高压储罐氢气泄漏并引发爆炸事故,分析泄漏爆炸动力学性质以及爆炸波在非均匀氢气浓度中的传播机制。同时,基于泄漏爆炸事故演化的力学机理,开展氢气泄漏爆炸动态风险分析,针对氢气不同泄漏量,建立泄漏扩散形成的气云体积、气云爆炸产生的冲击波与空间x,z方向上危害距离之间关系。研究结果表明：氢气泄漏过程中,气云氢气浓度变化与流场雷诺数具有较好一致性;氢气扩散受到高压储氢罐周围装置影响,流场中氢气浓度分布不均匀;当发生燃烧爆炸事故时,冲击波参数和湍动能变化梯度大;得到复杂布局区域冲击波超压峰值与比例距离之间关系式,其相比于理论方法更精细、计算结果更准确。研究结果可为降低高压储氢系统泄漏爆炸事故后果、采取有效防护措施提供一定依据。     

大力推广清洁能源——甲醇(M15)汽油

随着国际原油价格持续高位运行,实施能源的多元化战略已是当前世界各国政府做出的重要抉择.我国是一个缺油少气、相对富煤的国家,合理、高效、节能、安全的发展煤基替代燃料是我国能源发展的惟一出路,甲醇汽油是车用燃料替代,是新能源的重要组成部分.本文对此进行了论述.     

Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A method for evaluating transport energy consumption in suburban areas

Urban sprawl is a major issue for sustainable development. It represents a significant contribution to energy consumption of a territory especially due to transportation requirements. However, transport energy consumption is rarely taken into account when the sustainability of suburban structures is studied. In this context, the paper presents a method to estimate transport energy consumption in residential suburban areas. The study aimed, on this basis, at highlighting the most efficient strategies needed to promote awareness and to give practical hints on how to reduce transport energy consumption linked to urban sprawl in existing and future suburban neighborhoods. The method uses data collected by using empirical surveys and GIS. An application of this method is presented concerning the comparison of four suburban districts located in Belgium to demonstrate the advantages of the approach. The influence of several parameters, such as distance to work places and services, use of public transport and performance of the vehicles, are then discussed to allow a range of different development situations to be explored. The results of the case studies highlight that traveled distances, and thus a good mix between activities at the living area scale, are of primordial importance for the energy performance, whereas means of transport used is only of little impact. Improving the performance of the vehicles and favoring home-work give also significant energy savings. The method can be used when planning new areas or retrofitting existing ones, as well as promoting more sustainable lifestyles regarding transport habits.     

咪唑基离子液体用于天然气脱水过程中的技术-环境评价

利用Aspen Plus建立离子液体天然气脱水的工艺流程模拟,结合灵敏度分析及生命周期评价方法,对该工艺应用不同离子液体产生的技术及环境影响进行比较,并分析离子液体结构对天然气脱水工艺技术及环境评价的影响。结果表明：与烷基链较短的阳离子结合的[BF₄]^-离子液体具有较好的脱水性能（[EMIM][BF₄]>[BMIM][BF₄]>[OMIM][BF₄]）;对于生产1 kg甲烷气体而言,[BMIM][PF₆]脱水法的环境影响最大,达到[OMIM][BF₄]脱水法环境影响的5倍;此外,对于具有相同阴离子[BF₄]^-的脱水情况,环境影响顺序为[OMIM][BF₄]<[BMIM][BF₄]<[EMIM][BF₄]。该结果从技术和环境评价的角度为筛选或开发天然气脱水过程中选择适当的离子液体提供了指导。     

迎难而上大力推进新疆污染减排工作

在深刻论述新疆地区近年来开展节能减排和总量控制工作情况的基础上,针对我区污染物总量控制工作所面临的形势和问题进行了认真总结,并结合我区今后经济发展要求,为确保完成“十一五”总量控制目标,认真做好“十二五”总量控制工作,提出了加强污染源监督管理、完善考核制度、推进大集团战略及提高环境准入条件等8个方面的对策和建议。     

Urban Energy Efficiency from Cities in China and Policy Implications

Using 1995-2006 panel data for 210 cities, this article firstly measures total factor energy efficiency for Chinese cities with constant return to scale data envelopment analysis model,and then describes the features of regional differences. The results show that the changing trend displays four "reversed U" shapes. A turning point of widening gap occurred among cities in 2000 and there was a certain convergence among four regions. Urban energy efficiency level is unstable. Cities with low efficiency and high energy input will be the focus of energy-saving and reducing emissions. According to Tobit model, resource endowment, temperature, industrial structure, technology level and variety of policy factors should be treated differently in different situations.