Dynamic Tracking and Comprehensive Evaluation on the Natural Resources Security Elements and System in China

System theory,pressure-state-response and drivingpressure-state-impact-response model have been applied to establishing China's dynamic tracking evaluation system of natural resources security in this article.Based on analytic hierarchy process and Delphi methods,the natural resources security situation has been evaluated systematically from 1991 to 2007.The result showed that the overall level of China's natural resources security presented a downtrend from 1991 to 2007.The basic reasons are the pressure indicators such as population,GDP,natural resources trade increased gradually,resulting in tension and fragility of natural resources security.     

Stock market responses to chemical accidents in Japan: An event study

Despite recent major chemical process accidents in Japan, the top management teams of firms still avoid taking costly risk reduction measures because of their low perceived impact on firm performance. The disclosure of information on accident risks might motivate managers to enhance workplace safety because of the subsequent evaluation of firms by investors in stock markets. If the disclosed risk information is newly available for investors, firms with a high risk of accidents would receive a poor evaluation by stock markets and thus managers would take risk reduction measures to prevent stock prices from declining. In this study, we conduct an event study analysis to examine whether accident risk information is already reflected in stock prices, using data on the Japanese chemical industry. The results of our event study show that the estimated cumulative average abnormal returns of firms' stocks are significantly negative after severe accidents actually occurred. This finding implies that risk information is not already reflected in the stock prices of Japanese chemical firms and that the disclosure of accident risk information has the potential to motivate the top management teams of firms to reduce their firms’ accident risk.     

中国新克强指数的构建与实证分析

随着中国经济进入新常态,英国《经济学人》杂志构建的克强指数已无法反映中国经济的全貌,如何客观地反映中国经济的真实状况成为一个迫切需要解决的现实问题。为更好地测度中国经济运行的真实状况,本文根据李克强总理提出的"未来会更加关注就业、居民收入和生态环境的持续改善"的愿景,在原有克强指数的基础上,增加年末就业人员数、农村居民家庭人均纯收入、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入等就业和收入方面的指标,使用中国1995—2015年的相关数据和层次分析法构建了克强指数的修订版本即新克强指数,并将新克强指数与GDP增长率、克强指数进行了比较,发现新克强指数在反映中国经济波动和经济整体运行状态上有更为优良的性质。与GDP增长率相比,新克强指数克服了服务业比重提高带来的熨平效应,进而灵敏地反映中国经济波动情况,并对异常事件更加具有敏感性。相对于克强指数而言,新克强指数破除了因中国在第二产业上存在失衡性发展所带来的经济波动的杠杆效应,降低了经济增长中的虚假成分,从而与中国经济运行的整体关联度更为密切。此外,相对于克强指数而言,新克强指数在反映经济景气方面有着较好的时效性与关联性。采用时差相关分析法对新克强指数与宏观经济指标之间的关系进行分析,发现新克强指数在反映第一产业增加值、第三产业增加值、最终消费支出、资本形成总额、对外贸易、通货膨胀等方面具有优势。研究表明:新克强指数是更适宜测度中国经济的多元评价指标,为测度中国经济运行的真实状况提供了科学的参考依据。     

An Assessment of the Valuation Methods Used to Calculate the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW), Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), and Sustainable Net Benefit Index (SNBI)

For some time now, ecological economists have been putting forward a ‘threshold hypothesis’ – the notion that when macroeconomic systems expand beyond a certain size, the additional cost of growth exceeds the flow of additional benefits. In order to support their belief, ecological economists have developed a number of similar indexes to measure and compare the benefits and costs of growth (e.g., the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare and the Genuine Progress Indicator). In virtually every instance where an index of this type has been calculated for a particular country, the movement of the index appears to reinforce the existence of the threshold hypothesis. Of late, a number of observers have expressed concerns about whether these alternative indexes reflect concrete reality or the prejudices of ecological economists. In view of these concerns, this paper closely examines the valuation methods used in the calculation the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare, the Genuine Progress Indicator, and the Sustainable Net Benefit Index. It is argued that a consistent and more robust set of valuation techniques is required in order for these alternative indexes to gain broad acceptability.*Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

太湖不同湖区生态系统健康评价方法研究

基于长期的监测资料，计算了表征湖泊生态系统健康的系统能（Ex）、系统能结构（Exs1）和生态缓冲容量（｜β｜）指标，以及湖泊营养状态指数（Its）。结果表明，太湖不同湖区生态系统健康状况差异明显，1998-2001年太湖典型湖区健康状况由好到差的相对顺序为：东太湖、贡湖和湖心区、梅梁湾、五里湖。在此基础上，提出了富营养化浅水湖泊生态系统健康指标阈值和湖泊系统能量健康指数（IEx）及其健康状况分级。经2002、2003年太湖不同湖区实测检验表明，所提出的湖泊系统能量健康指数及其健康状况分级适用于评价太湖不同湖区生态系统健康的区域分异状况。     

区域环评中生态适宜度分析指标体系的探讨

从城市生态学的内涵和自然与社会两大生态系统出发,结合上海城市特点,建立应用于上海市城镇区域开发建设环境影响评价的生态适宜度分析指标体系,它包括开发区居住用地和工业用地的三级指标体系,其中居住区包含环境质量、绿化景观和地理位置等6项自然生态指标,和生活设施、布局设计、人口密度和综合管理等10项人文社会生态指标;工业区包含环境质量和自然地理等8项自然生态指标,和基础设施、人力资源和综合条件等9项人文生态指标.指标体系以上海市罗店镇和庄行镇城镇作为评价对象进行实例验证分析,结果表明,与实际情况基本相符.     

高应力条件下尾矿破碎特性及坝体稳定性研究*

高应力条件下尾矿破碎特性与坝体稳定性研究是高尾矿坝避免溃坝事故的重要参考。分析尾矿颗粒破碎过程中级配曲线的演化规律,提出采用BET测试颗粒比表面积以定量化表征颗粒破碎指标;在室内高应力三轴试验的基础上,阐述高应力条件下尾矿的力学行为,提出高应力条件下尾矿强度准则,并基于该准则对工程实例进行应用分析。结果表明:相比于常用破碎指标,从能量观点出发的BET法比表面积表征尾矿颗粒破碎更为合理;采用线性Mohr-Coulomb准则计算尾矿在低应力阶段的内摩擦角,采用幂函数Mohr强度准则计算尾矿在高应力阶段的内摩擦角;提出1套考虑高应力条件下尾矿强度折减的坝体稳定性分析方法,以供实际工程参考。     

高原铁路机车乘务人员生理选拔指标研究

为了研究高原铁路机车乘务员生理选拔指标,确定生理指标鉴定标准值,选择西宁铁路分局西格段机车司机500人进行指标体系鉴定试验。其结果表明:西格段机车司机总体合格率为31.6%,年龄、行车线路高度差对合格率有较大影响;确认红细胞压积、白细胞计数、血小板计数、血氧饱和度、血糖、谷草转氨酶、总胆红素、直接胆红素、尿蛋白和尿红细胞为较敏感的高原低氧生理代偿指标;可作为生理适应性筛检指标。提出选拔青藏铁路机车乘务员应采用基础体检、高原适应性体检二级结构模型;制定了高原机车乘务员体检鉴定医学标准、测试方法、合格判定标准。     

城市交通与环境可持续发展指标体系评估系统研究——上海案例应用

可持续发展是一种将社会发展概念从单纯经济增长拓展到经济、社会、环境协调发展的城市发展新模式.交通环境的可持续发展在整个发展体系中占据着重要地位.本文针对目前大城市普遍面临的交通环境压力和经济、交通与环境系统的复杂性,通过构建经济-交通-环境间的压力与响应关系,建立了可用于"回顾过去、解析现状、瞻望未来"的城市交通环境可持续发展指标体系.采用隶属函数对单项指标进行标准化处理,对交通环境可持续发展综合指数的评价,采用层次分析法确定各指标的权重.采用Visual Basic 6.0及Office的Access 2000,开发了交通环境可持续发展指标体系评估系统,并以上海市为案例进行了研究.本系统的开发可为城市交通环境可持续状况评价及发展对策的制定提供技术支持.     

Evaluation of ecological restoration success in mining‐degraded lands

This review article analyzes the importance of assessing the success of ecological restoration by using four indicators: assemblage of the plant and animal communities; enzyme activity; litter accumulation and decomposition; and the improvement of soil quality. These indicators can be used alone or in combinations. Even though the Society for Ecological Restoration International provided a primer containing nine attributes to use as standards for measuring ecological restoration, only three of these attributes could be easily applied due to their low costs and low time requirements. These three attributes include: diversity, vegetation structure, and ecological processes. This review article emphasizes that the criteria for the selection of the indicator species should be based upon: habitat types, abundance of species, ease of measuring, quantifying and interpreting the results, gradual enhancement with time and cost‐effectiveness, sensitivity, variability of response, size, residential status, and requirements of the area. Principal component analysis was applied to calculate the reclaimed mine soil quality index (RMSQI) and the forest soil quality index (FSQI) and the RMSQI value was compared with FSQI (optimum index value of reference ecosystem) to evaluate the restoration success. Available phosphorus, exchangeable magnesium, organic carbon, clay content, field moisture, available nitrogen, electrical conductivity, and pH are identified as the most influential parameters that regulate the health of reclaimed mine soil. Exchangeable calcium, magnesium, cation exchange capacity, sand, silt, clay content, field moisture, available phosphorus, and pH are the controlling properties for forest soil. The observed values of the above‐stated soil indicator properties were converted into a unitless score (0–1.00) and integrated into index calculations (RMSQI and FSQI). The contribution of each soil indicator properties on the calculated index was analyzed, which provides insight into the reason for the measured index. A higher RMSQI indicates better ecological restoration success. The calculated RMSQI was found to be 0.473 in the reclaimed dump, which is 6% lower than the reference ecosystem.