The Iowa Graduated Driver Licensing program: effectiveness in reducing crashes of teenage drivers

PROBLEM: Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) programs vary in the United States in terms of implementation and restrictions. The State of Iowa's GDL program is assessed for its effectiveness in reducing crashes among teenage drivers. METHOD: Time series analysis was used to evaluate police documented crashes involving 16-, 17-, and 18-year-old drivers over a 10 year period, with an intervention identified at the point of GDL implementation. RESULTS: After controlling for seasonal trends and auto-correlative effects, a significant reduction in the crash rate of and 16- and 17-year-old drivers was observed due to the GDL implementation. However, there were no significant reductions in crash rates for 18-year-old drivers. DISCUSSION: The analyses suggest that the Iowa GDL program is effective in reducing the crash rates of 16- and 17-year-old drivers but the effects do not sustain for 18-year-old drivers. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The results suggest that the program appears to be working, however further analysis is needed to determine what factors are preventing lasting effects for these teenage drivers.     

Individual risk analysis of high-pressure natural gas pipelines

Transmission pipelines carrying natural gas are not typically within secure industrial sites, but are routed across land out of the ownership of the pipeline company. If the natural gas is accidentally released and ignited, the hazard distance associated with these pipelines to people and property is known to range from under 20 m for a smaller pipeline at lower pressure to up to over 300 m for a larger pipeline at higher pressure. Therefore, pipeline operators and regulators must address the associated public safety issues.This paper focuses on a method to explicitly calculate the individual risk of a transmission pipeline carrying natural gas. The method is based on reasonable accident scenarios for route planning related to the pipeline's proximity to the surrounding buildings. The minimum proximity distances between the pipeline and buildings are based on the rupture of the pipeline, with the distances chosen to correspond to a radiation level of approximately 32 kW/m². In the design criteria for steel pipelines for high-pressure gas transmission (IGE/TD/1), the minimum building proximity distances for rural areas are located between individual risk values of 10⁻⁵ and 10⁻⁶. Therefore, the risk from a natural gas transmission pipeline is low compared with risk at the building separated minimum distance from chemical industries.     

Oil spill cleanup cost estimation—Developing a mathematical model for marine environment

The field of oil spill cost modelling is not as well explored as desirable. Generally speaking, the existing models have either low accuracy, in that their predictions are far from the real cost, or low applicability, in that they are only valid under very specific conditions; such as in one particular country. This work strives to construct a model that is functional in a global scope and still possess a high level of accuracy. The resulting attempt is in many ways superior to the publicly available competitors, not only because of its predictive capacity but also because the model is quick to use, and its input variables should be readily available to any informed user. The model is more accurate comparing with similar available models. However, further study is needed to modify it to obtain more realistic results.     

Leaching behavior of heavy metals from municipal solid waste incineration bottom ash and its geochemical modeling

With the increase in the number of municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) plants constructed in China recently, great attention has been paid to the heavy metal leaching toxicity of MSWI residues. In this study, the effects of various parameters, including extractant, leaching time, liquid-to-solid ratio, leachate pH, and heavy metal content, on the release properties of Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn from MSWI bottom ash were investigated. Partial least-squares analysis was employed to highlight the interrelationships between the factors and response variables. Both experimental research and geochemical modeling using Visual MINTEQ software were conducted to study the pH-dependent leaching behavior of these metals in fresh and weathered bottom ash, considering precipitation/dissolution and surface complexation reactions (adsorption by hydrous ferric oxide and amorphous aluminum oxide/hydroxide). The results showed that leachate pH was the predominant factor influencing heavy metal leachability. The leaching of Cu, Pb, and Zn was mainly controlled by precipitation/dissolution reactions, whereas surface complexation had some effect on the leaching of Cr, Cd, and Ni for certain pH ranges. The modeling results aggreed well with the experimental results. Part of this work was presented at the Fourth International Conference on Combustion, Incineration/Pyrolysis and Emission Control (i-CIPEC)     

Optimal Design of a Multi-Pollutant Air Quality Monitoring Network in a Metropolitan Region Using Kaohsiung, Taiwan as an Example

An air quality monitoring network (AQMN) usually performs the basic function of assessment of regional air quality and demonstration of compliance with ambient air quality standards in an urban area. Different pollutants, however, may present different characteristic variabilities due to their specific emission patterns, rates of diffusion, and transport and transformation behaviors. But the costs of siting in a pollutant-specific monitoring network would be higher than that for a common network with respect to several pollutants monitored simultaneously. This paper presents a survey of multi-pollutant design principles and optimal searches for siting patterns of an AQMN using both simulation and optimization models as a combined tool. While conservative, quasi-stable, and reactive pollutants are considered in the design principles, cost, coverage effectiveness, and spatial correlation characteristics are included in the multi-criteria decision making process. For illustrative purpose, a series of technical settings and two types of objectives were examined in the case study for the city of Kaohsiung in Taiwan.     

Agricultural Chemicals in the Alluvial Aquifer of a Typical County of the Arkansas Delta

Statistical methods and a Geographic Information System (GIS) were used to investigate potential indicators of ground water vulnerability to agricultural chemical contamination in a representative area of the Mississippi River alluvial aquifer. A total of 47 wells were sampled for analysis of nitrate, phosphorus, potassium, and 13 pesticides commonly-used in the area. Ten soil and hydrogeologic variables and five ground water vulnerability indices were examined to explain the variations of chemical concentrations. The results showed that no individual soil or hydrogeologic variables or their linear combinations could explain more than 25% of the variation of the chemical concentrations. A quadratic response surface model with the values of confining unit thickness, slope, soil permeability, depth to ground water, and recharge rate accounted for 62% of the variation of nitrate, 43% of P, and 83% of K, suggesting that the interactions among soil and hydrogeologic variables were significant. Observed trends of decreasing nitrate and P concentrations with increasing well depth and/or depth to ground water seemed to correlate with carbonate equilibrium in the aquifer and more reduced environment with depth. In view of uncertainties involved, it was recognized that the limitations associated with input data resolution used in GIS and the formulation of leaching indices limited their use for predicting ground water vulnerability. Misuse of pesticides could be another factor that would complicate the relationships between pesticide concentrations and the vulnerability indices.     

B—P网络逐步聚类法在环境测点优选中的应用

将Ｂ－Ｐ网络原理与逐步聚类分析思想相结合,用于环境测点聚类优选。该方法用于水清河几个监测断面的优选结果是符合客观实际的。     

南方土壤酸沉降敏感性研究Ⅷ.盐基离子淋溶的多因素分析

在模拟酸雨条件下土壤盐基离子淋溶特性研究的基础上,采用生成分分析及多元回归分析方法研究了土壤盐基淋溶的影响因子．结果表明,通过主成分分析方法可将选取的15个原始变量综合成为2个主成分,为进一步分析盐基释放量与土壤理化性质之间的关系提供了方便．影响盐基释放量的主要因子有土壤原始pH值、可交换性盐基含量、蒙脱石含量、活性氧化物、1.4nm矿物等,它们表现出效应,而高岭石和可交换性铝含量表现出负效应．利用主成分分析的结果进行多元回归分析,可得到土壤累积盐基释放量与2个主成分之间的回归方程．     

The accounting method and application of CO2 emissions responsibility by the electricity sector at the provincial level in China

When accounting the CO₂ emissions responsibility of the electricity sector at the provincial level in China,it is of great significance to consider the scope of both producers’ and the consumers’ responsibility,since this will promote fairness in defining emission responsibility and enhance cooperation in emission reduction among provinces.This paper proposes a new method for calculating carbon emissions from the power sector at the provincial level based on the shared responsibility principle and taking into account interregional power exchange.This method can not only be used to account the emission responsibility shared by both the electricity production side and the consumption side,but it is also applicable for calculating the corresponding emission responsibility undertaken by those provinces with net electricity outflow and inflow.This method has been used to account for the carbon emissions responsibilities of the power sector at the provincial level in China since 2011.The empirical results indicate that compared with the production-based accounting method,the carbon emissions of major power-generation provinces in China calculated by the shared responsibility accounting method are reduced by at least 10%,but those of other power-consumption provinces are increased by 20% or more.Secondly,based on the principle of shared responsibility accounting,Inner Mongolia has the highest carbon emissions from the power sector while Hainan has the lowest.Thirdly,four provinces,including Inner Mongolia,Shanxi,Hubei and Anhui,have the highest carbon emissions from net electricity outflow- 14 million t in 2011,accounting for 74.42% of total carbon emissions from net electricity outflow in China.Six provinces,including Hebei,Beijing,Guangdong,Liaoning,Shandong,and Jiangsu,have the highest carbon emissions from net electricity inflow- 11 million t in 2011,accounting for 71.44% of total carbon emissions from net electricity inflow in China.Lastly,this paper has estimated the emission factors of electricity consumption at the provincial level,which can avoid repeated calculations when accounting the emission responsibility of power consumption terminals（e.g.construction,automobile manufacturing and other industries）.In addition,these emission factors can also be used to account the emission responsibilities of provincial power grids.