城市再生资源利益相关者满意度评价模型及实证

城市再生资源的利用已成为世界各国谋求可持续发展的重要课题,而如何使城市再生资源利益相关者在其处理流程中达到各自的最大满意程度是实现其有效利用的重要途径,因此本文对城市再生资源利益相关者满意度进行了深入研究。本文首先构建了城市再生资源利益相关者满意度的评价指标体系,并且用G1法与熵值法的组合方式确定了指标体系的权重,然后以模糊数学原理为基础构建了利益相关者满意度的综合评价模型,对大连的城市再生资源利益相关者满意度进行了实证研究。结果显示,模糊综合评价适合城市再生资源利益相关者满意度的评价,而且评价结果与实际相符合。大连市六个方面的城市再生资源利益相关者满意度排序依次为:政府、社区、回收企业、加工企业、科研机构、消费者,同时也对满意度的结果进行了分析,找出了大连在发展中存在的问题,并提出了相应的发展策略,最后对评价模型的运用进行了总结。     

含外来电的崇明县能源碳排放核算研究

能源消耗是中国最主要的碳排放源,而地方政府是碳管理的基层行政单元,因此,有效控制区域的能源碳排放是碳减排工作的重中之重。区域消耗的能源中,外来电是缓解当地用电压力的重要措施,但一般外来电引起的碳排放易被忽视。将外来电导致的碳排放纳入区域能源碳排放核算体系内,利用部门分析和范围分析法建立了包含外来电分析的能源碳排放核算系统,以上海市崇明县为例进行了应用。研究表明：（1）2000～2009年崇明的能源碳排放增长较快,由181万t增至477万t（CO2当量）;(2）碳排放总量的8212%来自3个部门：工业、建筑业和生活部门;(3）2009年,购买电力导致的间接碳排放达2316%,体现了实施碳管理时考虑外来电力的必要性     

基于FA-BAS-ELM的海洋油气管道外腐蚀速率预测

为提高海洋油气管道外腐蚀速率预测的精度和效率,建立基于因子分析(FA)和天牛须搜索算法(BAS)的极限学习机(ELM)腐蚀速率预测模型。利用FA对影响因素数据集进行降维处理,确定预测模型的输入变量;建立ELM预测模型,并采用BAS对ELM模型的参数进行优化,避免参数取值随机性对模型预测性能的影响;以实海挂片试验为例,通过建模仿真评价模型的预测性能,并与其他模型进行对比分析。结果表明：FA-BAS-ELM预测模型的平均绝对误差(MAPE)仅为1.92%,决定系数R²高达0.994 9,相比于其他模型,该模型具有更优的预测性能。     

Diffusion mechanism of lindane into wood charcoal

Abstract

The wood charcoal treated by 1N HNO₃ (WCT) was used to remove toxic chlorinated pesticide lindane (y‐HCH) residue from water by the sorption process. Using a simple first order reversible kinetics constants and half time equations, the film and pore diffusion coefficients were determined. Film diffusion was found to be rate limiting step in sorbing lindane by WCT. This was further authenticated by kinetics studies at different initial sorbate concentrations, different sorbent sizes, and different agitation speeds besides interruption test. A pore diffusion model was used to fit the data of kinetics in continuously mixed batch reactors (CMBR), and the tortuosity, external resistance, and surface diffusion effects on lindane sorption by WCT were noticed. The tortuosity values of 15 to 28 were obtained for WCT‐lindane system.     

Structuring Decisions for Managing Threatened and Endangered Species in a Changing Climate

The management of endangered species under climate change is a challenging and often controversial task that incorporates input from a variety of different environmental, economic, social, and political interests. Yet many listing and recovery decisions for endangered species unfold on an ad hoc basis without reference to decision‐aiding approaches that can improve the quality of management choices. Unlike many treatments of this issue, which consider endangered species management a science‐based problem, we suggest that a clear decision‐making process is equally necessary. In the face of new threats due to climate change, managers’ choices about endangered species require closely linked analyses and deliberations that identify key objectives and develop measurable attributes, generate and compare management alternatives, estimate expected consequences and key sources of uncertainty, and clarify trade‐offs across different dimensions of value. Several recent cases of endangered species conservation decisions illustrate our proposed decision‐focused approach, including Gulf of Maine Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) recovery framework development, Cultus Lake sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) management, and Upper Columbia River white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) recovery planning. Estructuración de Decisiones para Manejar Especies Amenazadas y en Peligro en un Clima Cambiante     

Defending the scientific integrity of conservation‐policy processes

Government agencies faced with politically controversial decisions often discount or ignore scientific information, whether from agency staff or nongovernmental scientists. Recent developments in scientific integrity (the ability to perform, use, communicate, and publish science free from censorship or political interference) in Canada, Australia, and the United States demonstrate a similar trajectory. A perceived increase in scientific‐integrity abuses provokes concerted pressure by the scientific community, leading to efforts to improve scientific‐integrity protections under a new administration. However, protections are often inconsistently applied and are at risk of reversal under administrations publicly hostile to evidence‐based policy. We compared recent challenges to scientific integrity to determine what aspects of scientific input into conservation policy are most at risk of political distortion and what can be done to strengthen safeguards against such abuses. To ensure the integrity of outbound communications from government scientists to the public, we suggest governments strengthen scientific integrity policies, include scientists’ right to speak freely in collective‐bargaining agreements, guarantee public access to scientific information, and strengthen agency culture supporting scientific integrity. To ensure the transparency and integrity with which information from nongovernmental scientists (e.g., submitted comments or formal policy reviews) informs the policy process, we suggest governments broaden the scope of independent reviews, ensure greater diversity of expert input and transparency regarding conflicts of interest, require a substantive response to input from agencies, and engage proactively with scientific societies. For their part, scientists and scientific societies have a responsibility to engage with the public to affirm that science is a crucial resource for developing evidence‐based policy and regulations in the public interest.     

旅游新景区开发的利益相关者博弈分析——以平顶山清水河景区为例

以博弈均衡理论为基础,以平顶山市清水河景区为案例,通过对"人系统"中各利益相关者的实地调研和走访,从博弈论的角度探讨了各利益相关者之间的博弈行为及其博弈均衡。研究表明,只有顾全各利益相关者的利益追求和利益最优化,保证多方利益的协调才是旅游新景区开发的最佳途径,从而为旅游新景区开发提出了一种新的分析方法。     

HUMAN BEHAVIOR AND RESPONSE TOWARDS STORM HAZARD IN WEST VANCOUVER,BRITISH COLUMBIA1

ABSTRACT: Human behavior and response towards storm hazard are examined in this study. One-hundred and twenty flood victims in West Vancouver, British Columbia, were administered a sentence completion test to ascertain how these victims behaved and responded to the flash flood of July 12, 1972. The sentence completion test consisted of 11 sentence stems. Seven of these dealt with the respondent's behavior toward the storm experience, and four with the issue of internal vs. external locus of control. Completions of the seven sentence stems at three time situations showed that West Vancouverites expressed the normal reactions of fear and anxiety before the storm; showed negative emotions during the storm; and displayed a feeling of mutual cooperation after the storm. Completions of the remaining four sentence stems revealed that West Vancouverites emphasized the importance of internal factors, viz., autonomy, drive and hard work, in controlling their lives. They recognized God as a benevolent - protective and almighty - powerful figure. Forty percent of the respondents did not believe in luck, while 8 percent regarded it as important in their lives. One might conclude that West Vancouverites could cope with natural hazardous threats better than those who rely on external factors in directing their lives.     

外浮顶罐充氮管网设计及有效性试验验证

为了预防外浮顶罐密封圈雷击火灾,提出在密封圈内充入氮气的保护方法.将安全含氧量作为充氮的惰化目标,对外浮顶罐充氮管网进行设计,并通过试验来验证充氮管网的有效性.试验得到了充氮流量、进出气孔数量及管径与有效充氮时间的关系.若以142 m3/h的流量对容量为10×104 m3的外浮顶罐密封圈内充氮,则46.5 min内可以达到充氮惰化目标.雷电预警时间为60 ～ 90 min的条件下,充氮时间小于预警时间,表明所设计的管网是有效的.