植被快速修复技术研究

根据国内外对极度退化生态系统植被恢复基本理论及植被控制水土流失的原理,针对滇池流域台地区生态系统极度退化特征,提出以乔灌草立体生态系统构建为主的植被快速修复技术,并对示范效果进行了评估.     

Extreme value analysis of Munich air pollution data

We present three different approaches to modelling extreme values of daily air pollution data. We fitted a generalized extreme value distribution to the monthly maxima of daily concentration measures. For the exceedances of a high threshold depending on the data, the parameters of the generalized Pareto distribution were estimated. Accounting for autocorrelation, clusters of exceedances were used. To obtain information about the relationship of the exceedance of the air quality standard and possible predictors we applied logistic regression. Results and their interpretation are given for daily average concentrations of ozone and nitrogen dioxide at two monitoring sites within the city of Munich.     

1961—2017年青藏高原极端降水特征分析

基于青藏高原78个气象站点的逐日降水数据,采用百分位阈值法确定极端降水阈值,计算极端降水指数并分析其时空分布特征,以期为区域气候变化预测及防灾减灾对策的制定提供参考。结果表明：（1）1961—2017年青藏高原年降水量表现出上升趋势,上升速率为8.06 mm/10 a,多年平均降水量达472.36 mm。78个站点的年降水量倾向率最小值为-25.46 mm/10 a,最大值为43.02 mm/10 a,有15.38%的站点降水在下降,较为集中地分布在高原的东部和南部,其余84.62%的站点降水量在上升。（2）青藏高原各站点极端降水阈值的平均值为23.11 mm,取值范围为7.84~51.90 mm。高值中心出现在横断山区的贡山和木里,低值中心出现在柴达木盆地及昆仑山北翼区。（3）青藏高原各站点的极端降水量、极端降水日数和极端降水贡献率均表现出了明显的上升趋势,极端降水强度虽然也在上升但趋势并不明显,表明青藏高原极端降水量的上升并非是极端降水的强度引起的,而是由极端降水频次的上升引起的。柴达木盆地的极端降水量和极端降水日数虽然并没有表现出高值水平,但该地区的极端降水贡献率却表现出较高水平,表明该区域虽然降水量较少,但是降水往往以极端降水的形式产生。     

最低气温对兰州市呼吸系统疾病就诊人次的影响研究

通过2013年1月1日~2017年7月31日兰州市呼吸系统疾病逐日就诊资料和气象资料,采用分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM）方法,分析0~30d滞后影响,研究极端低温对不同年龄（<15岁、16~45岁、46~60岁、>60岁）和性别人群呼吸系统疾病就诊人次的影响.结果发现：日均最低温度对相对危险度（RR）的最大RR变化范围为0.89~1.41,变化趋势整体呈现出V字型,在低温附近,温度越低,RR越高;滞后0~4d,极端低温代表的冷效应影响最为显著;滞后5~19d,在日均最低温度0℃附近,出现新的峰值,冷效应对RR的贡献有所下降,热效应对RR的贡献完全消失;滞后20~30d,日均最低温度为-10℃时,出现RR最小值,0℃温度点附近维持RR峰值;滞后22d时,滞后影响完全消失.在极端低温条件下,呼吸系统疾病对低龄人群表现出长期滞后性和高发性,对高龄人群表现出短期滞后性.男性比女性患病的滞后效应更长,患病风险更大.     

Global effects of extreme temperatures on wild bumblebees

Climate plays a key role in shaping population trends and determining the geographic distribution of species because of limits in species’ thermal tolerance. An evaluation of species tolerance to temperature change can therefore help predict their potential spatial shifts and population trends triggered by ongoing global warming. We assessed inter- and intraspecific variations in heat resistance in relation to body mass, local mean temperatures, and evolutionary relationships in 39 bumblebee species, a major group of pollinators in temperate and cold ecosystems, across 3 continents, 6 biomes, and 20 regions (2386 male specimens). Based on experimental bioassays, we measured the time before heat stupor of bumblebee males at a heatwave temperature of 40 °C. Interspecific variability was significant, in contrast to interpopulational variability, which was consistent with heat resistance being a species-specific trait. Moreover, cold-adapted species are much more sensitive to heat stress than temperate and Mediterranean species. Relative to their sensitivity to extreme temperatures, our results help explain recent population declines and range shifts in bumblebees following climate change.     

中国二氧化硫污染的“稳健性”影响因素——基于空间面板数据EBA模型的实证分析

改革开放以来,中国的经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就.然而,随着经济的快速增长,环境污染问题也日益凸显.本文采用2000—2012年中国30个省际的面板数据,利用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)理论检验二氧化硫(SO2)污染与经济增长的关系及其空间溢出效应,进而引入极值边界模型(EBA模型)实证检验SO2污染的"稳健性"影响因素.结果表明:我国各省域SO2污染与经济增长存在EKC曲线假设的倒"U"型关系,并具有空间溢出效应;第二产业就业人口比重、出口占GDP的比重、能源效率、化石能源比重、工业污染治理完成投资与SO2排放量呈正向"稳健性"关系,产业结构升级与SO2排放量呈负向"稳健性"关系.最后根据实证结论提出相应的政策建议,为政府制定相应的SO2减排政策提供经验证据和决策参考.     

西南技术工程研究所, 重庆 400039

目的建立敦煌地区温度、相对湿度和日温差的年极值拟合模型。方法根据当地气象站台温度和相对湿度日记时值数据,连续统计若干年的三要素年极值,采用极大似然法建立各要素年极值的Gumbel模型,同时讨论值域有界类气象因素极值再现期的定义域。结果给出了敦煌地区温度、相对湿度和日温差年极值的Gumbel模型参数。结论敦煌地区各气象因素Gumbel模型位置参数和尺度参数,温度极大值分别为35.193,1.072℃,温度极小值分别为-20.085,1.945℃,相对湿度极大值为95.254%,2.471%,相对湿度极小值为5.837%,1.505%,日温差极大值为20.676,0.777℃,日温差极小值为1.398,0.593℃;相对湿度极大值、相对湿度极小值和日温差极小值的再现期定义域分别为6.3,47和10年。     

ESTIMATING PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD PROBABILITIES1

ABSTRACT: Methods of computing probabilities of extreme events that affect the design of major engineering structures have been developed for most failure causes, but not for design floods such as the probable maximum flood (PMF). Probabilities for PMF estimates would be useful for economic studies and risk assessments. Reasons for the reluctance of some hydrologists to assign a probability to a PMF are discussed, and alternative methods of assigning a probability are reviewed. Currently, the extrapolation of a frequency curve appears to be the most practical alternative. Using 46 stations in the Mid-Atlantic region, the log-gamma, log-normal, and log-Gumbel distributions were used to estimate PMF probabilities. A 600,000-year return period appears to be a reasonable probability to use for PMFs in the Mid-Atlantic region. The coefficient of skew accounts for much of the variation in computed probabilities.     

2003年我国十大极端天气气候事件

2003年我国极端天气气候事件及气象灾害发生较为频繁,特别是淮河流域特大洪水、南方持续的高温热浪及伏秋连旱,造成了严重影响.另外,低温阴雨、秋汛、台风、局地暴雨等也较为突出.本文利用我中心气候业务系统所得资料,对2003年我国极端天气气候事件作一综合评述.     

1971-2016年新疆极端温度时空变化特征分析

基于新疆地区42个气象站点1971-2016年逐日温度数据资料,选取世界气象组织(WMO)推荐的10个极端温度指标,使用线性趋势法、克里金插值法和Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,分析该地区极端温度指数在时间和空间上的变化规律.结果 表明:新疆地区1971-2016年间4个极端高温指数均呈现出明显的上升趋势,除极...