山东近岸黄海极值风速预测及防灾建议——基于极值分布和风向的预测

在总结有关海上大风预测研究成果的基础上,根据极值理论合理选取预测极值风速的极值分布计算模型:Gumbel分布和Poisson-Gumbel分布。根据山东近岸黄海26 a的风速观测资料,采用分风向统计数据和投影法处理数据,充分考虑风向和相邻风向的影响,形成十六个风向的年极值序列和过程极值序列样本;最后,用两种模型计算得到各个风向的极值风速预测结果,对比不考虑风向的计算结果,分析出黄海海域海洋风灾发生的时间规律和致灾风向,并对黄海海域的防风减灾提出合理建议。     

Screening and characterization of extremophiles in spacecraft assembly environment北大核心CSCD

Spacecrafts need to strictly control microorganisms before entering space flight. The Spacecraft Assembly, Integration, and Test Center (AITC) is an important environmental source for spacecrafts to carry microorganisms. The assembly clean room has characteristics of ventilation, dryness, and lack of nutrients that are not conducive to the growth and reproduction of microorganisms, except for extremophiles. In this study, based on the internal air and surface environment of the AITC in China, 13 strains of bacteria were identified by plate culture and 16S sequence analysis, and their extreme environmental tolerance, antibiotic resistance, and film-forming ability were tested. All these bacteria belonged to the Firmicutes and Proteobacteria phyla, and nine strains belonged to the Bacillus genus. All 13 strains of bacteria were salt-tolerant, acid-tolerant, and alkali-tolerant, and 69.2% of the bacteria survived heat shock at 80 ℃. Among these, one strain of Sphingomonas sp. JCM7513 isolated from the surface environment was insensitive to all the tested antibiotics and had strong drug resistance, while the other 12 strains were sensitive to most β-lactam antibiotics but had strong resistance to tetracyclic antibiotics and erythromycin. Most of the isolated bacteria exhibited strong biofilm-forming abilities. The study showed that there are a certain number of extremophiles in the spacecraft assembly environment. To protect spacecrafts from biological corrosion and planetary protection forward pollution, more effective monitoring and elimination methods are needed. © 2022 Science Press. All rights reserved.     

Transformation of rural communities: lessons from a local self-initiative for building resilience in the Solomon Islands

Solomon Islands is vulnerable to negative impacts from climate change, where people’s livelihoods and their well-being are threatened, especially the viability of isolated communities. Realising the increasing risks from climate change on communities, government, in partnership with aid-donor partners, has invested millions of dollars in climate change projects, through mitigation and adaptation strategies. As a form of adaptation, the government invests in programmes aimed at increasing the adaptive capacity of the vulnerable communities through landscape and seascape projects across the rural communities. Focusing on the “transformation concept” as a long-term adaptation strategy and enlargement of climate engineering and ecological resilience concepts, the paper discusses why building resilience from transformation of rural communities, as well as from landscape and seascape projects, would benefit communities and relevant authorities. This paper describes the findings of a study on two rural villages, Keigold and Mondo, from Ranogha Islands, Western Province, in Solomon Islands, where 80% of households decided to relocate from their old village “Mondo” to their new home “Keigold” after an earthquake in 2007, as part of a self-initiative. The reallocation process can be seen as a case of pro-active community transformation that provides valuable lessons to other rural communities that may be forced to move due to impacts from natural catastrophes, including those explained by climate change risks. Lessons from this experience suggest that policy-makers and non-government organisations should consider and empower local transformation initiatives as a way to building long-term adaptation to climate change.     

基于极值风速预测的台风数值模型评述

在沿海台风多发地区，高耸及长大建筑结构对于极值风速作用非常敏感，因此在结构的设计、施工与使用期间有必要合理估算结构设计使用期限内可能遭遇的台风极值风速。台风极值风速的估算不仅涉及台风风场的数值模拟，也包括风速样本的采集与统计分析过程。较系统地介绍了台风风场结构的各类数学模型，并对它们在不同使用目的背景下的适用性作了评述与比较。最后，基于越界峰值法探讨了工程场地一定重现期内台风极值风速预测的可行性。     

红河流域1960-2007年极端降水事件的时空变化特征

利用中国境内红河流域23个气象站点1960-2007年的逐日降水数据,基于极端降水指数分析流域极端降水事件的时空变化特征。结果表明:极端降水频次和强度表现出从东南向西北递减的特征,高值区分布在江城-绿春-金平-河口一线以南,低值区分布在巍山-南涧-弥渡一线以北及元江中游河谷;极端降水频次峰值出现在7月,汛期极端降水出现频次占全年的91.48%。1960-2007年期间,极端降水指数均表现出上升趋势,其中,极端降水贡献率和平均日降水强度上升趋势较为显著,线性趋势值分别为0.68%·(10 a)^-1和0.17 mm·d^-1·(10 a)^-1。除了平均日降水强度整体上表现出上升的趋势外,其余5个极端降水指数趋势变化具有空间差异性,增加的站点大多分布在李仙江上游、 元江中上游和藤条江流域,减小的站点大多分布在李仙江下游、 元江下游和盘龙河流域。     

陕西2012年极端天气气候事件与气象灾害

利用极端天气气候事件监测系统监测结果,分析了陕西1981-2012年极端天气气候事件出现次数和强度,发现2012年陕西极端天气气候事件次数少于多年平均值,但华阴7月2-4日、佳县7月24-28日极端降水事件强度之大,为历史罕见,佳县27日降水量、26-28日3d降水量均超过百年一遇的水平,造成严重人员伤亡和经济损失.说明即便是在极端天气气候事件出现次数少,气候年景较好的年份,局地也会出现历史罕见的极端事件和灾害.此外,还分析了极端天气气候事件次数与灾情年景评估指数之间的相关性.     

Crop adaptation processes to extreme floods in Bangladesh: a case study

This paper investigates farmers’ crop adaptation processes in response to three recent devastating floods in Islampur, a case-study area in rural Bangladesh. The paper reports a multi-method research project which comprised a questionnaire survey, focus-group discussions and interviews with agricultural block supervisors. The author analyses three recent severe floods in Bangladesh, occurring in 1988, 1995 and 1998, and reviews the adaptation techniques and strategies embraced by the same group of farmers in order to survive the more devastating inundations that occur from time to time. The study concluded that vulnerable farmers are highly resilient and, with appropriate support, their adjustments can be sustainable. This enquiry showed that in the face of climate change both the inclusion of autonomous adaptations into planning and policy-making and the enhancement and support of community-based adaptation can be effective in ensuring the survival of riverine farming systems. This case study can be considered as a key reference case in regard to vulnerable locations in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna mega-delta basin, particularly in respect to Bangladesh.     

Heat-health warnings in regional Australia: examining public perceptions and responses

ABSTRACT

Heatwaves are an increasing environmental hazard and an important public health issue in Australia. Heat-health warnings are being adopted widely to promote protective behaviours, but there has been limited evaluation of public responses. This study used a household telephone survey to examine public attitudes and responses to heat-health warnings in regional areas in two Australian states, South Australia and Victoria. The results indicate a high level of recall of heat-health warnings and awareness about managing extreme heat. Respondents viewed heat-health warnings positively, but the effects on behaviour change were variable. Our findings suggest that the warnings may be reinforcing existing protective behaviours more than promoting change. Perceptions of heat risks were higher among women than men, but lower in older age groups. Evidence of this nature is important to identify ways to improve heat-health warnings and more effectively address the public health risks.     

Hierarchical modeling for extreme values observed over space and time

We propose a hierarchical modeling approach for explaining a collection of spatially referenced time series of extreme values. We assume that the observations follow generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions whose locations and scales are jointly spatially dependent where the dependence is captured using multivariate Markov random field models specified through coregionalization. In addition, there is temporal dependence in the locations. There are various ways to provide appropriate specifications; we consider four choices. The models can be fitted using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to enable inference for parameters and to provide spatio–temporal predictions. We fit the models to a set of gridded interpolated precipitation data collected over a 50-year period for the Cape Floristic Region in South Africa, summarizing results for what appears to be the best choice of model.

Climate Change Impacts on Local Flood Risks in the U.S. Northeast: A Case Study on the Connecticut and Merrimack River Basins

This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on future flows in the main stem of the Connecticut and Merrimack rivers within Massachusetts. The study applies two common climate projections based on (Representative Concentration Pathways), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 and downscaled gridded climate projections from 14 global climate models (GCMs) to estimate the 100‐year, 24‐h extreme precipitation events for two future time‐periods: near‐term (2021–2060) and far‐term (2060–2099). 100‐year 24‐h precipitation events at near‐ and far‐term are compared to GCM‐driven historical extreme precipitation events during a base period (1960–1999) and results for RCP 8.5 scenario show average increases between 25%–50% during the near‐term compared to the base period and increases of over 50% during the far‐term. Streamflow conditions are generated with a distributed hydrological model where downscaled climate projections are used as inputs. For the near‐term, the medians of the GCMs using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 suggest 2.9%–8.1% increases in the 100‐year, 24‐h flow event in the Connecticut and an increase of 9.9%–13.7% in the Merrimack River. For the far‐term, the medians of the GCMs using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 suggest a 9.0%–14.1% increase in the Connecticut and 15.8%–20.6% for the Merrimack River. Ultimately, the results presented here can be used as a guidance for the long‐term management of infrastructures on the Connecticut and Merrimack River floodplains.