欧盟碳价影响因素研究及其对中国的启示

作为一项市场创新和政策创新,即将启动的中国全国性碳市场备受国内外关注。为保证其成功建立与平稳发展,相关经验借鉴已刻不容缓,但作为投石问路的7大试点碳市场发展层次不齐,可供参考的模式有限,因此研究全球第一大碳市场——欧盟碳排放交易体系(EU ETS)及其对中国的可参照性尤为迫切;而作为市场是否成熟的风向标,碳价规律性特征的挖掘尤为重要。前期国内外学者分别发现CER价格、原油价格、煤炭价格、天然气价格、欧洲工业指数、联合国气候变化大会、政府政策、极寒天气、暖冬天气、自然灾害、重大事件等多种因素都有可能引起EUA期货价格波动。本研究通过引入MIV-BP神经网络模型,对EU ETS二期和三期的EUA期货价格进行训练和测试,模拟了上述11个因素对EUA价格的影响,弥补了传统计量模型难以同时处理较多变量及不能整合定性与定量变量等缺点。通过对EU ETS二期1 149组和三期775组数据的挖掘,得出了各变量对EUA期货价格的影响程度。其中,二期运行阶段各变量影响程度从大到小排序为:自然灾害COPCER极寒天气Coal重大事件Brent政府政策Stock600Gas暖冬天气;三期运行阶段各变量影响程度从大到小排序为:COPStock600Coal自然灾害极寒天气重大事件政府政策BrentGasCER暖冬天气。最后,本研究对二、三期各变量对碳价影响程度的变化进行了解释,并对中国未来建立全国性碳市场提出了以下四点建议:(1)稳定碳市场参与主体预期;(2)完善核证减排抵消机制,保持政策稳定;(3)配额分配考虑区域差异;(4)建立配额应急机制。     

Study on the investment value and investment opportunity of renewable energies under the carbon trading system

China has promised to start the national carbon trading system in 2017. In the carbon trading system, the renewable energy projects may obtain additional benefits through the Certified Carbon Emission Reduction (CCER) trade. As the carbon price fluctuates along with the market conditions, such fluctuation enables the renewable power projects to acquire the rights of an option, i.e. it may contain an even higher value due to the uncertainties in the future. While making an investment decision, the renewable power companies may choose to make the investment immediately, or postpone the investment and accumulate more information to increase the return of investment; and for immediate investments, the return must be sufficient to exceed the potential value of a waiting option. To study the investment in renewable power projects subject to the fluctuation of carbon price, this paper adopts the trinomial tree model of real options to estimate the net present value (NPV) and real option value (ROV) of three types of renewable power projects; according to the decision-making rules of real options to defer, all the three types of projects will exercise the option to postpone the investment decision. This thesis also calculates the benchmark prices of the three types of renewable projects at different times, in the two situations of having no government subsidy and having the government subsidy, so as to determine the investment opportunity of a project. The benchmark price decreases gradually along with the increase of government subsidy, indicating that the government subsidy will stimulate the investment in renewable projects. The benchmark price also increases gradually along with the lapse of time, indicating that the uncertainty will increase together with the time span and thus requires an even higher carbon price to determine the investment opportunity. This thesis also analyzes the sensitivity of factors affecting the investment in renewable projects and draws the conclusion that the fluctuation of carbon price is positively related with the benchmark price of renewable power projects, which indicates that the fluctuation of carbon price increases the option value of an investment but postpones the time of investment. As the China’s carbon trading system improves gradually, the carbon price will reach a stable status, thus stimulate the power companies to invest in the renewable projects.     

Evaluation of electronic components in life cycle assessment

Life cycle assessment (LCA), a quantitative method for evaluating the total environmental impact of a product, from the materials in its manufacture to its final disposal, is playing an increasingly important role in manufacturing. When the LCA method is applied to a product containing many kinds of electronic components, there is a need for life cycle inventory (LCI) data on the components. This paper provides an original calculation of the LCI data for each electronic components industry. These data show the amount of input energy and emissions into the atmosphere per yen of production yield. It is demonstrated that the magnitude of the LCI data for each industry is essentially equal to that of the other industries. Furthermore, we conclude that the LCI data for all electronic components are roughly equivalent, making it possible to calculate the LCI data of any electronic component by simply multiplying the LCI data for the industry by the price of the component. Furthermore, after comparing the materials production stages with the component manufacturing stage in the calculation, it became clear that for several component industries the materials production stage could not be omitted from the calculation. Received: April 10, 1998 / Accepted: February 8, 1999     

基于生态账户的农田生态补偿空间转移研究——以武汉城市圈48个县(市、区)为例

论文以区域农田生态服务价值为基础,以经济发展程度、区域农田生态赤字/盈余与区域提供的生态承载力比值为调节系数,建立农田生态补偿空间转移模型,基于农田生态账户的概念从县(市、区)级层面对武汉城市圈48个县(市、区)的农田生态补偿空间转移额度进行测算。结果显示:1武汉城市圈农田生态系统服务总价值为75.00×108元,涉及农田生态补偿空间转移额2.31×108元。2 48个县(市、区)中,24个为农田生态支付区,支付区中武昌区的支付量最大,达到5 967.92×104元,最小为14.94×104元(铁山区);24个受偿区中最大受偿额为238.91×104元(黄陂区),最小为5.14×104元(英山县)。3农田生态补偿空间转移量占地方当年财政收入的比例在0.07%~5.24%之间波动。论文提出的农田生态补偿空间转移模型简单、可行,也适用于其他更高或更低的尺度上有农田分布的地区进行农田生态补偿空间转移额度的核算。     

农业文化遗产地有机生产转换期农产品价格补偿测算——以云南省红河县哈尼梯田稻作系统为例

高效农业技术广泛使用提高了农业生产效率,促进了粮食产量增长,但同时也带来环境问题、食品安全问题和传统农业文化逐渐消失等负面效应。哈尼梯田作为全球重要农业文化遗产(GIAHS),具有生态价值、农业生产价值和景观价值等多重价值,保护哈尼梯田农业系统意义重大。通过有机生产提高稻谷价格的方式,推动农民继续种植水稻,可以达到保护哈尼梯田农业系统的目的。然而,从非有机到有机生产有一个转换期,这期间稻谷无法以有机产品的价格出售,所以,政府须给予一定的价格补偿才可保证农民利益和生产的持续性。论文采用问卷和访谈等调查方法,获取哈尼梯田地区农户有机转换期种植投入产出状况和劳动力外出务工收入状况,以及现代规模生产方式下的投入产出状况,通过分析对比和核算,得到结果如下:1哈尼梯田地区有机转换期水稻种植直接投入高于现代水稻种植方式,总投入成本中劳动力成本占比最大,而单产低于现代水稻种植方式;2哈尼梯田地区的青壮年劳动力偏向于在城市生活和务工,外出务工收入明显高于常规农业收入,使农业机会成本较高;3有机转换期的稻谷价格补偿至少2.84元/kg才可保证有机转换期农民收入稳定,从而达到保护哈尼梯田景观的目的。     

环境规划中环境资源有价理论的政策研究和实践

随着环境保护意识的加强和环境保护理论的不断拓展,环境资源有价的理念逐步深入到管理层面,环境资源有偿使用也逐步成为重要的环境管理手段。部分省份经过多年的实践探索,取得了积极成效,但也存在一些问题。为了使环境资源有价理论相关内容在环境保护"十三五"规划中更加完善,本文在环境资源有价理论的基础上,通过分析总结,探索适宜的可持续发展的一系列经济政策,并介绍其在山西省的实践应用,期望利用经济手段的调控作用,实现环境保护和经济可持续发展的目的。     

Prenatal diagnosis and management of twin pregnancies complicated by a co-existing molar pregnancy

Recent advances in ultrasound and molecular genetics have increased our understanding and hence enhanced the perinatal management of complete and partial hydatidiform mole. By contrast, the management of a twin pregnancy combining a normal pregnancy with a normal fetus and a complete hydatidiform mole (CHM) remains complex and controversial due to conflicting data from different parts of the world. The aim of this review is to analyse the international literature on twin pregnancies that include a mole, present the complications and outcome of pregnancy and to discuss the perinatal management. Management is complicated and women should be counselled about the maternal and fetal complications, and the pregnancy monitored carefully by a perinatal team with experience in high-risk obstetrics and access to neonatal care. The data reviewed here suggest that a woman who decides to continue with the pregnancy including a CHM must be aware that, overall, she only has a one in four chance of live birth and in around 35% of cases she will develop persistent trophoblastic disease (PTD) after delivery. In ongoing pregnancies, there will be, in at least 20% of the cases, an early onset of pre-eclampsia (PET) and a 29% risk of fetal loss due to late miscarriage, intrauterine death and neonatal death. Maternal serum human chorionic gonadotrophin (MShCG) could be useful in predicting outcome in twin pregnancy combining normal pregnancy and CHM, but this needs to be investigated prospectively. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

城市土地价值的演变过程

根据经济增长点（投资点）的区际变化关系，本文分析了城市土地价值的均衡增长与不均衡增长过程，揭示了城市土地价值的演变规律．     

运用回归分析测算水口镇商业用地基准地价

惠州市惠城区水口镇原隶属于惠阳市,2003年惠城区行政区划进行了战略性调整,惠阳撤市设区,水口镇划归惠城区管辖, 这样水口镇现执行的基准地价标准(原惠阳标准)需要更新.目前基准地价的评估方法有很多种,通过建立样点地价与土地定级网格单元总分值关系模型,运用回归分析来测算水口镇商业用地基准地价.