中国工业碳排放达峰的情景预测与减排潜力评估

实现2030年碳排放达峰不仅是中国为应对全球气候变化向国际社会做出的郑重承诺,也是中国未来经济结构转型与可持续发展的必然选择。基于中国实现2030年碳排放达到峰值的宏观目标为背景,本文以中国碳排放的主要行业工业为研究对象,首先运用拓展的STIRPAT模型对工业及其9个细分行业的碳排放达峰进行了情景预测,然后基于公平和效率的双重视角对工业细分行业的减排潜力进行评估。研究表明:(1)仅有低碳情景和抑制排放情景2可以实现中国碳排放2030年达峰,低碳情景是实现中国工业碳排放达峰的最佳发展模式,达峰时间最早(2030年),峰值最低(140.43亿t)。激进排放情景则是最差的发展模式,达峰时间最晚(2036年),峰值也最高(150.09亿t)。(2)工业内部各细分行业碳排放的最优达峰情景差别较大。建材和纺织制造业能够实现提前达峰,可以在这类行业率先实施达峰管理措施,使其带动其他行业陆续达峰。(3)最具减排潜力的行业是石油制造业,其次是电力行业,这些减排潜力较大的行业应该成为国家节能减排的重点对象。(4)基于工业各细分行业在减排公平性和效率性上的差异将工业9个细分行业分为四类。其中,石油、钢铁制造业和电力行业属于"高效高公平行业";化工、建材制造业属于"低效高公平行业";采掘业属于"高效不公平行业";纺织、轻工和机电制造业属于"低效不公平行业"。中国应针对不同类型的行业制定出相应的减排战略,将减排重点放在各行业最具潜力的方面。最后,文章对实现中国工业碳排放达峰管理提出了几点政策建议。     

Carbon dioxide emissions from cities in China based on high resolution emission gridded data

Based on the China high resolution emission gridded data (1 km spatial resolution), this article is aimed to create a Chinese city carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission data set using consolidated data sources as well as normalized and standardized data processing methods. Standard methods were used to calculate city CO₂ emissions, including scope 1 and scope 2. Cities with higher CO₂ emissions are mostly in north, northeast, and eastern coastal areas. Cities with lower CO₂ emissions are in the western region. Cites with higher CO₂ emissions are clustered in the Jing-Jin-Ji Region (such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Tangshan), and the Yangtze River Delta region (such as Shanghai and Suzhou). The city per capita CO₂ emission is larger in the north than the south. There are obvious aggregations of cities with high per capita CO₂ emission in the north. Four cities among the top 10 per capita emissions (Erdos, Wuhai, Shizuishan, and Yinchuan) cluster in the main coal production areas of northern China. This indicates the significant impact of coal resources endowment on city industry and CO₂ emissions. The majority (77%) of cities have annual CO₂ emissions below 50 million tons. The mean annual emission, among all cities, is 37 million tons. Emissions from service-based cities, which include the smallest number of cities, are the highest. Industrial cities are the largest category and the emission distribution from these cities is close to the normal distribution. Emissions and degree of dispersion, in the other cities (excluding industrial cities and service-based cities), are in the lowest level. Per capita CO₂ emissions in these cities are generally below 20 t/person (89%) with a mean value of 11 t/person. The distribution interval of per capita CO₂ emission within industrial cities is the largest among the three city categories. This indicates greater differences among per capita CO₂ emissions of industrial cities. The distribution interval of per capita CO₂ emission of other cities is the lowest, indicating smaller differences of per capita CO₂ emissions among this city category. Three policy suggestions are proposed: first, city CO₂ emission inventory data in China should be increased, especially for prefecture level cities. Second, city responsibility for emission reduction, and partitioning the national goal should be established, using a bottom-up approach based on specific CO₂ emission levels and potential for emission reductions in each city. Third, comparative and benchmarking research on city CO₂ emissions should be conducted, and a Top Runner system of city CO₂ emission reduction should be established.     

A Two-Stage Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm for MPPT of Partially Shaded PV Arrays

The power-voltage (P-V) characteristic curves of a PV array are nonlinear and have multiple peaks under partially shaded conditions (PSCs). This paper proposes a novel maximum power point tracking (MPPT) method for a PV system with reduced steady-state oscillation based on a two-stage particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. The grouping method of the shuffled frog leaping algorithm (SFLA) is incorporated in the basic PSO algorithm (PSO-SFLA), ensuring fast and accurate searching of the global extremum. An adaptive speed factor is also introduced into the improved PSO to further enhance its convergence speed. Test results show that the proposed method converges in less than half the time taken by the conventional PSO method, and the power is improved by 33% under the worst PSCs, which confirms the superiority of the proposed method over the standard PSO algorithm in terms of tracking speed and steady-state oscillations under different PSCs.     

Optimization-Based Atmospheric Plume Source Identification

This work applies optimization and an Eulerian inversion approach presented by Bagtzoglou and Baun in 2005 in order to reconstruct contaminant plume time histories and to identify the likely source of atmospheric contamination using data from a real test site for the first time. Present-day distribution of an atmospheric contaminant plume as well as data points reflecting the plume history allow the reconstruction and provide the plume velocity, distribution, and probable source. The method was tested to a hypothetical case and with data from the Forest Atmosphere Transfer and Storage (FACTS) experiment in the Duke experimental forest site. In the scenarios presented herein, as well as in numerous cases tested for verification purposes, the model conserved mass, successfully located the peak of the plume, and managed to capture the motion of the plume well but underestimated the contaminant peak.     

Gold Mining: Is It Worth Its Weight?

Gold (Au) accounts for only 0.004 g/ton of the earth's crust and is the most desired element. With an average annual world production of approximately 2,500 tons, the current methods of Au mining in developing countries cause major environmental issues. These issues vary from deforestation to cyanide and mercury (Hg) contamination. This article presents several cases of environmental catastrophes caused by Au mining in different regions of the world (Africa, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and South America). It discusses the currently available processes for the large-scale extraction of metallic Au grains and supports the need for an alternative sustainable process.     

Ecosystem services in coupled social–ecological systems: Closing the cycle of service provision and societal feedback

Both the ‘cascade model’ of ecosystem service provision and the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework individually contribute to the understanding of human–nature interactions in social–ecological systems (SES). Yet, as several points of criticism show, they are limited analytical tools when it comes to reproducing complex cause–effect relationships in such systems. However, in this paper, we point out that by merging the two models, they can mutually enhance their comprehensiveness and overcome their individual conceptual deficits. Therefore we closed a cycle of ecosystem service provision and societal feedback by rethinking and reassembling the core elements of both models. That way, we established a causal sequence apt to describe the causes of change to SES, their effects and their consequences. Finally, to illustrate its functioning we exemplified and discussed our approach based on a case study conducted in the Alpujarra de la Sierra in southern Spain.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0651-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Evaluating anthropogenic N inputs to diverse lake basins: A case study of three Chinese lakes

The environmental degradation of lakes in China has become increasingly serious over the last 30 years and eutrophication resulting from enhanced nutrient inputs is considered a top threat. In this study, a quasi-mass balance method, net anthropogenic N inputs (NANI), was introduced to assess the human influence on N input into three typical Chinese lake basins. The resultant NANI exceeded 10 000 kg N km⁻² year⁻¹ for all three basins, and mineral fertilizers were generally the largest sources. However, rapid urbanization and shrinking agricultural production capability may significantly increase N inputs from food and feed imports. Higher percentages of NANI were observed to be exported at urban river outlets, suggesting the acceleration of NANI transfer to rivers by urbanization. Over the last decade, the N inputs have declined in the basins dominated by the fertilizer use but have increased in the basins dominated by the food and feed import. In the foreseeable future, urban areas may arise as new hotspots for nitrogen in China while fertilizer use may decline in importance in areas of high population density.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0638-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

工业搬迁区绿化带土壤铜污染及其在植物体内的迁移

老工业搬迁区主要道路两旁绿化带土壤由于历经老工业企业的变迁和环境的污染破坏,可在一定程度上对这一地区环境的历史变迁及重金属污染状况起到指示作用。采集沈阳铁西老工业搬迁区绿化带土壤及其绿化乔木和灌木植株样品,分析土壤中铜的总量及生物有效态含量,同时分别分析了绿化乔木(8种)和绿化灌木(6种)植株根、枝条和叶片的含铜量。结果表明,搬迁区绿化带土壤中含铜量为29.14~166.95mg/kg,显著高于沈阳市土壤铜元素的背景值;土壤有效态铜为0.23~1.72mg/kg,达到中等水平(0.3~1.0mg/kg)的占采样点总数的70.0%。数据还显示,绿化乔木和灌木对铜的蓄积能力依品种不同差异显著,同种植物不同部位(根、枝条和叶片)对铜的富集能力不同;总体上,绿化乔木植株体内含铜量的分布规律为根叶片枝条或叶片根枝条,绿化灌木植株体内含铜量的分布规律为根叶片枝条。对铜蓄积能力较强的绿化乔木为榆叶梅(Amygdalus triloba Lindl.)、垂柳(Salix babylonica Linn.)、旱柳(Salix matsudana Koidz.)和银杏(Ginkgo biloba),对铜蓄积能力较强的绿化灌木为大叶女贞(Ligustrum lucidum Ait.)、小叶女贞(Ligustrum quihoui Carr.)和紫叶小檗(Berberis thunbergii cv.Atropurpurea)。     

城市生活垃圾处理方式生命周期评价的比较研究

生命周期评价理论与方法作为一种量化环境影响的工具,在诸多领域中得到了广泛的应用。在垃圾处理领域,生命周期评价最早在20世纪90年代得到应用。生命周期评价与城市生活垃圾处理的有效结合,将促进城市生活垃圾的减量化、资源化、无害化目标的实现。总结了生命周期评价理论与方法在城市生活垃圾处理中的应用现状。对国内不同城市生活垃圾处理方式环境影响因子进行比较分析,诸如全球变暖潜力、酸化潜力和富营养化潜力等因子。针对其目标范围定义、数据收集、评价方法的选择、结果解释及工艺改进等方面指出了目前研究的局限性和不足。并对未来城市生活垃圾处理生命周期评价的发展方向进行展望。     

Comprehensive Environmental Investigation at Former Industrial/Petroleum Underground Storage Tank Sites in Long Beach,CA: A Forensic Perspective

Two industrial sites were investigated based on years of available hydrogeologic information and monitoring data for soil and groundwater. Collected data were forensically evaluated using age-dating and fingerprinting methods. The previous business uses of the project sites were as a gas station, laundry/dry-cleaning service, and car wash with petroleum underground storage tanks (USTs). As a result, these sites were exposed to a number of toxic contaminants at relatively high concentrations. Source control was necessary for successful remediation and the ultimate removal of the remaining compounds from these industrial sites. Although contaminated soil around the source was excavated during the remedial action and the high concentrations of contaminants were reduced, typical groundwater contaminants such as petroleum hydrocarbons as gasoline (TPH-G), benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylenes (BTEX), and oxygenates including methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE), diisopropyl ether (DIPE), ethyl tert-butyl ether (ETBE), tert-amyl methyl ether (TAME), and tert-butyl alcohol (TBA) were persistently found at the studied sites around the source points. The plume and concentration of contaminants had changed their shapes and strength for all monitoring periods. Thus, additional source control seems to be a requirement for the complete removal of source contamination, which must be ascertained with groundwater and soil monitoring on a regular time base. For the study sites, monitored natural attenuation was relatively feasible for the long-term plan; however, it did not offer a perfect remediation solution for an ultimate goal because of residual toxic compounds that might have affected the surrounding residential areas at higher concentrations than their health limits. Therefore, as a remediation strategy, the combination of clean-up technology and natural attenuation with monitoring activities are more highly recommended than either clean-up or natural attenuation used separately.