FLOOD HAZARD STUDIES IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN USING REMOTE SENSING1

ABSTRACT. The Spring 1973 Mississippi River flood was investigated using remotely sensed data from ERTS-1. Both manual and automatic analyses of the data indicate that ERTS-I is extremely useful as a regional tool for flood management. Quantitative estimates of area flooded were made in St. Charles County, Missouri and Arkansas. Flood hazard mapping was conducted in three study areas along the Mississippi River using pre-flood ERTS-1 imagery enlarged to 1:250,000 and 1:100,000 scale. The flood prone areas delineated on these maps correspond to areas that would be inundated by significant flooding (approximately the 100 year flood). The flood prone area boundaries were generally in agreement with flood hazard maps produced by the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers and U. S. Geological Survey although the latter are somewhat more detailed because of their larger scale. Initial results indicate that ERTS-1 digital mapping of flood prone areas can be performed at 1:62,500 which is comparable to some conventional flood hazard map scales.     

阵性泥石流运动与堆积的欧拉─拉格朗日模型──Ⅰ.理论

自然界中的泥石流具有突发性和非恒定性的特点。为了模拟典型泥石流现象,在流团模型的 基础上,进一步完善了基于欧拉─拉格朗日（Ｅ—Ｌ）观点的ＰＩＣ（Ｐａｒｃｅｌ　Ｉｎ　Ｃｅｌｌ）算法,细化了流元结 构,建立了能够模拟典型阵性泥石流发生、运动和堆积的准结构两相流模型。求解该模型不仅可以 模拟泥石流运动过程,而且可以对泥石流的堆积过程、停积形态、冲刷特征及泥石流中多组分颗粒 的分选特征进行定量描述。     

Assessment of the Water Quality and Ecosystem Health of the Great Barrier Reef (Australia): Conceptual Models

Run-off containing increased concentrations of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides from land-based anthropogenic activities is a significant influence on water quality and the ecologic conditions of nearshore areas of the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area, Australia. The potential and actual impacts of increased pollutant concentrations range from bioaccumulation of contaminants and decreased photosynthetic capacity to major shifts in community structure and health of mangrove, coral reef, and seagrass ecosystems. A detailed conceptual model underpins and illustrates the links between the main anthropogenic pressures or threats (dry-land cattle grazing and intensive sugar cane cropping) and the production of key contaminants or stressors of Great Barrier Reef water quality. The conceptual model also includes longer-term threats to Great Barrier Reef water quality and ecosystem health, such as global climate change, that will potentially confound direct model interrelationships. The model recognises that system-specific attributes, such as monsoonal wind direction, rainfall intensity, and flood plume residence times, will act as system filters to modify the effects of any water-quality system stressor. The model also summarises key ecosystem responses in ecosystem health that can be monitored through indicators at catchment, riverine, and marine scales. Selected indicators include riverine and marine water quality, inshore coral reef and seagrass status, and biota pollutant burdens. These indicators have been adopted as components of a long-term monitoring program to enable assessment of the effectiveness of change in catchment-management practices in improving Great Barrier Reef (and adjacent catchment) water quality under the Queensland and Australian Governments’ Reef Water Quality Protection Plan.     

时变参数模型用于滑坡位移量预测的研究

滑坡的位移量发展受地质条件、气候环境以及人类活动等多种因素的影响,变化复杂,通常难以用固定参数的数学模型准确表达。时变参数模型的模型参数随时间变化,能够描述更为复杂的函数关系。将时变参数模型应用于滑坡位移量预测,通过对比发现,时变参数模型有望提高滑坡位移量的预测精度。     

Modelling and analysis of recruitment distributions

Recruitment data for 18 marine fish stocks are smoothed using 10 parametric families of probability distributions. Comparative fit of the 10 families is assessed by means of the maximized log-likelihood. Results indicate that the gamma distribution provides an overall good fit in the right-hand tail of the data, but that some adjustment to the gamma distribution is called for in the left-hand tail. Weight functions and weighted distributions are suggested as one means of achieving the needed adjustment.     

基于河网水系变化的水灾危险性评价——以永定河流域京津段为例

城市化过程中不合理的土地利用导致河道填塞、河网缩减现象普遍，城市水灾增加。基于灾害系统思想，构建了基于河网水系变化的水灾危险性评价体系，并以永定河京津段为例进行了实证分析。结果表明：（1）近40年来研究区水系结构简单化趋势明显，河道长度减少了20．5％，条数减少了36．4％，水系调蓄能力下降，在同样的致灾强度下水灾危险性加大；（2）在假设暴雨重现期为50年的条件下，经济密度差异决定了水灾潜在危险区的空间格局，居民用地将成为水灾重度危险区；平原段水灾重度危险区占5．7％，中度危险区占33．1％，滨海段重度危险区占13．9％，中度危险区占26．8％。研究结果可为区域综合减灾、水灾预报提供依据。     

APPLICATION OF ADVANCES IN FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Flood frequency analyses are frequently being made using widely available computer programs. Serious errors can result from blind acceptance of such results. Visual interpretation of observed flood series can be used for evaluation on frequency paper with compatible scales. Such frequency papers are presented in the paper. In ephemeral streams, more infrequent floods may constitute a separate set from the more frequent floods because (a) runoff producing storms cover only a portion of the contributing area, (b) transmission losses in the normally dry streambed may reduce the peak flow, and (c) some runoff may be stored in stock water ponds which therefore leads to partial area runoff. The Cunnane plotting position used in this paper is superior to the more widely used Weibull equation, having a mathematically sound basis for locating observed floods on an assumed probability.     

洪水前兆的初步探讨

根据历史洪水和现有研究 ,比较系统地分析了各种洪水前兆 ,可以为洪水预报提供一定的理论依据 ,同时指出 ,为了提高预报精度 ,必须对洪水前兆进行综合分析 ,去伪存真 ,最终达到防洪减灾的目的     

旅游灾害事件成灾模型的建立及解析

在我国旅游业蓬勃发展的今天,旅游灾害事件频发已引起了相关部门的高度重视和全社会的关注.根据灾害学原理和对旅游灾害事件成灾机制的研究,建立旅游灾害事件成灾模型,将在成功防范和减轻旅游灾害事件的损失方面发挥巨大作用.该模型主要就旅游灾害事件的基础条件、旅游灾害的诱发因素、旅游灾害的承灾体、旅游灾害损失类型、以及防灾减灾有效措施等方面的问题进行了分析和探讨.     

河网水质模型研究进展

纵观水质模型的研究、应用及相关科学的发展,本文针对现有的水质模型做了分析评价,简要介绍了河网水质模型的未来研究趋势,并提出了几点建议。