长江-黄河源寒区径流量波动变化的气候因素分析

长江－黄河源区属典型寒区,降水、冰雪融水等共同成为径流的补给来源,径流量的变化同时受到区域内降水量和气温变化的影响。采用互谱分析方法研究表明,长江、黄河源区降水与径流周期波动间的关系明显好于气温与径流之间的关系,降水对径流量的主要周期波动有较明显的控制作用。气温虽然对径流量的部分周期波动变化有一定的影响,但不如降水明显。相对来说,黄河源区降水对径流量的波动变化的影响要好于长江源区。20世纪80年代后期长江－黄河源区径流量大幅下降的主要原因是区域内降水量的减少。     

Trophic State in Voyageurs National Park Lakes before and after Implementation of a Revised Water‐Level Management Plan

We compiled Secchi depth, total phosphorus, and chlorophyll a (Chla) data from Voyageurs National Park lakes and compared datasets before and after a new water‐level management plan was implemented in January 2000. Average Secchi depth transparency improved (from 1.9 to 2.1 m, p = 0.020) between 1977‐1999 and 2000‐2011 in Kabetogama Lake for August samples only and remained unchanged in Rainy, Namakan, and Sand Point Lakes, and Black Bay in Rainy Lake. Average open‐water season Chla concentration decreased in Black Bay (from an average of 13 to 6.0 μg/l, p = 0.001) and Kabetogama Lake (from 9.9 to 6.2 μg/l, p = 0.006) between 1977‐1999 and 2000‐2011. Trophic state index decreased significantly in Black Bay from 59 to 51 (p = 0.006) and in Kabetogama Lake from 57 to 50 (p = 0.006) between 1977‐1999 and 2000‐2011. Trophic state indices based on Chla indicated that after 2000, Sand Point, Namakan, and Rainy Lakes remained oligotrophic, whereas eutrophication has decreased in Kabetogama Lake and Black Bay. Although nutrient inputs from inflows and internal sources are still sufficient to produce annual cyanobacterial blooms and may inhibit designated water uses, trophic state has decreased for Kabetogama Lake and Black Bay and there has been no decline in lake ecosystem health since the implementation of the revised water‐level management plan.     

Probability law of concentration in plumes dispersing in an urban area

The relationships between various normalized higher-order concentration moments in plumes dispersing in a built-up (urban) environment have been investigated using a large concentration data set obtained in a boundary-layer water channel. This data set consists of measurements of plume dispersion in a number of idealized obstacle arrays (e.g., cubical and non-cubical obstacles in aligned and staggered arrangements with uniform, random and alternating heights). A remarkably robust feature of all the concentration data was the observed collapse of the third- and fourth-order normalized concentration moments on the second-order normalized concentration moment. The data are shown to collapse to a series of universal curves (independent of the geometry of the obstacle array) and these curves were found to be identical to those observed previously for open-terrain plumes. The results imply that the probability law of concentration in a plume dispersing in either a built-up environment or open terrain has a universal form that can be specified by at most two independent parameters. The universal functions representing the relationships between the normalized concentration moments were found to be well modeled (approximated) using a two-parameter clipped-gamma probability law for the concentration. Finally, the clipped-gamma distribution was found to be in very good conformance with the measured probability distribution of concentration for plumes dispersing in a built-up environment.     

政企合谋下的策略减排困境——来自工业废气层面的度量考察

结合当前GDP导向下的晋升激励与层层加压的减排任务考核现实,立足于政治经济学角度,提出了政企合谋下策略性减排困境的假说,并利用1997-2011年间的相关数据进行双向固定效应下的普通面板与空间计量的检验。实证分析发现,相对于环境库茨涅茨曲线、污染天堂以及财政分权假说,晋升压力下本地晋升官员与企业合谋追求产出最大化的行为才是导致废气排放屡禁不止的主要原因;而即使考虑到政策时滞效应以及地区之间的空间依赖效应之后,政企合谋核心变量始终显著,但其他污染假说的备择变量依旧未能通过显著性检验,表明政企合谋导致外溢性物品排放恶化的假说十分稳健;同时,通过显著性检验的年度虚拟变量表明,尽管减排约束影响了合谋行为,但地方政府仅在检查力度较大的人事变动时期有限度的减排,而在后期无节制的增排,从而导致了废气排放与党代会同步的周期性波动;庆幸的是,尽管政企合谋假说十分稳健,但基于经济地理矩阵的空间滞后系数表明,晋升激励与考核任务的双重约束使得邻近地区之间,因为经济增长的短期不确定性与晋升博弈的残酷性而在短期内不敢贸然增排以避免陷入增长无法兑现的同时遭受约束性任务惩罚的尴尬境地,从而形成了经济差距下邻近地区之间废气排放的区域分化策略;最后,我们基于当前的政企合谋下策略性减排假说验证的基础上,认为要想扭转当前的减排困境,必须着力提升年轻官员与鼓励异地调任、给予环境污染以更多的激励权重、努力缩小地区经济差距以及改变单维GDP考核机制,方能从根本上转变当前的不利局面。     

周期性变温对紫色土有机碳矿化的影响

在自然状态下,土壤外界的环境温度日变化明显,并呈周期性波动,然而目前有关这种周期性变温如何影响土壤有机碳(SOC)矿化尚无统一观点.为此,以西南地区广泛分布的紫色土为供试对象,采用室内模拟培养的方法,开展周期性变温对其有机碳矿化的影响.培养试验涉及温度和水分两个因子,其中,温度设有4个模式,分别为3个恒温(15、20和25℃)、1个周期性变温(15/25℃变温);水分设有2个梯度,分别为70%WHC和淹水.在66 d培养期内,好气和淹水条件下,变温(15/25℃变温)培养的紫色土SOC累积矿化量和矿化强度与恒温20℃无明显差异,这表明可用20℃恒温来评估变温(15/25℃) SOC矿化的影响效应.此外,除恒温15℃,各温度处理均表现为淹水培养的紫色土有机碳累积矿化量显著高于好气(70%WHC)培养(P 0. 05).在变温条件下,土壤微生物量碳含量与紫色土有机碳矿化速率之间无显著相关.结合矿化动力学分析可知,淹水条件能有效增加紫色土的易分解碳库大小,但变温不能有效影响紫色土的易分解碳库大小.     

THE EFFECTS OF AGE AND WATER FLUCTUATIONS ON FISH POPULATIONS1

ABSTRACT Two lakes having similar soil types were studied to determine the effects of age and water fluctuations on plankton, benthos and fish populations. Bluff Lake is an older man-made lake which is drawn down in the mid-summer. Oktibbeha County Lake is a young lake and the water levels are maintained. Chemistry data from the two lakes indicate that their chemical properties are very similar. Neither lake would be considered very fertile. Net plankton populations in Bluff Lake and Oktibbeha County Lake were comparable when analyzed on a number of organisms per liter basis. Fluctuations of water levels did not seem to have an effect on the net plankton populations. The benthic population in Bluff Lake is slightly higher than that found in Oktibbeha County Lake. This is true for both numbers and weight per square meter. The species composition of benthic organisms in the two lakes were similar. Based on one-acre samples from each lake, Bluff Lake has a more balanced fish population than does Oktibbeha County Lake. Neither, however, seems to support populations of game fish in which a high percentage of these are in the available or harvestable range. Both lakes contain high populations of gizzard shad.     

Changes in quality of groundwater with seasonal fluctuations： an example from Ghor Sail area, southern Dead Sea coastal aquifers, Jordan

The demand for water resources in the area south of the Dead Sea due to continued development, especially at the Arab Potash Company （APC） for production and domestic purposes necessitates that water quality in the area be monitored and evaluated based on the local geology and hydrogeology. The objective of this paper is to monitor seasonal fluctuations of groundwater and to determine how fluctuation in the water levels will affect the groundwater quality. Groundwater levels were found to be influenced by rainfall and pumping of water from the wells for domestic and industrial use. Twenty water samples were collected from different wells and analyzed for major chemical constituents both in pre- and post-seasons to determine the quality variation. Chemical constituents are significantly increased after post-season recharge. According to the overall assessment of the area, water quality was found to be useful for drinking, irrigation and industry.     

Measuring and modeling the seasonal changes of an urban Green Treefrog (Hyla cinerea) population

Green Treefrogs (Hyla cinerea) were captured, marked, measured and released at an urban study site in Lafayette, LA, during the 2004 and 2005 breeding seasons. A statistical method based on a generalization of the hypergeometric distribution was used to derive weekly time-series estimates of the population sizes. To describe the population dynamics, a stage structured mathematical model was developed and compared to time-series obtained from the weekly population estimates study using a least-squares approach. Two fitting experiments were done: (1) Using uniform distribution for the birth rate during the breeding season; (2) Using a birth rate distributed according to weekly data on frog calling intensity. Although both model-to-data fits look very promising during the years 2004 and 2005 and result in similar inherent survivorship rates for the tadpoles, juvenile and adult frogs, the fit that uses the calling data predicts a lower number of tadpoles and frogs in the long term than the one that uses uniform birth distribution. The parameter estimates resulting from these fitting experiments are used in the context of stochastic simulations to derive extinction and persistence probabilities for this population. Due to the oscillatory dynamics (with high amplitude) evidenced by the capture-recapture data and corroborated by the model, it is suggested that anuran monitoring efforts should take into account the natural intra-annual variation in population size.     

Changes in quality of groundwater with seasonal fluctuations: an example from Ghor Sari area, southern Dead Sea coastal aquifers, Jordan

The demand for water resources in the area south of the Dead Sea due to continued development, especially at the Arab Potash Company (APC) for production and domestic purposes necessitates that water quality in the area be monitored and evaluated based on     

Investigation of Building - Influenced Atmospheric Dispersion Using a Dual Source Technique

Dispersion of atmospheric contaminants in the vicinity of an isolated cubical model building was investigated in the field. A dual source/receptor technique was used in the experiments, which was proved to be very useful for the investigation of pollution dispersion. This experimental technique involved the simultaneous release of two different tracer gases from two different point sources, and the deployment of a FID (Flame Ionization Detector) co-located with a UVIC®(Ultra-Violet Ion Collector) detector. Both mean concentrations and concentration fluctuation statistics were examined. In this paper concentration fluctuation statistics are presented. The effect of the upwind source location on intermittency values and on the cumulative density function (cdf) is examined. The exact location of a source placed upwind of an obstacle has a very significant and complex effect on both mean concentrations and concentration fluctuations. As the lateral or vertical displacement between the two sources is increased, cross-correlation values between data taken simultaneously by two co-located detectors decrease rapidly.