Epidemiologic Analysis of Factors Associated with Local Disappearances of Native Ranid Frogs in Arizona

Abstract:  We examined factors that may independently or synergistically contribute to amphibian population declines. We used epidemiologic case–control methodology to sample and analyze a large database developed and maintained by the Arizona Game and Fish Department that describes historical and currently known ranid frog localities in Arizona, U.S.A. Sites with historical documentation of target ranid species ( n = 324) were evaluated to identify locations where frogs had disappeared during the study period (case sites) and locations where frog populations persisted (control sites). Between 1986 and 2003, 117 (36%) of the 324 sites became case sites, of which 105 were used in the analyses. An equal number of control sites were sampled to control for the effects of time. Risk factors, or predictor variables, were defined from environmental data summarized during site surveys and geographic information system data layers. We evaluated risk factors with univariate and multifactorial logistic-regression analyses to derive odds ratios (OR). Odds for local population disappearance were significantly related to 4 factors in the multifactorial model. Disappearance of frog populations increased with increasing elevation (OR = 2.7 for every 500 m, p < 0.01). Sites where disappearances occurred were 4.3 times more likely to have other nearby sites that also experienced disappearances (OR = 4.3, p < 0.01), whereas the odds of disappearance were 6.7 times less (OR = 0.15, p < 0.01) when there was a source population nearby. Sites with disappearances were 2.6 times more likely to have introduced crayfish than were control sites (OR = 2.6, p = 0.04). The identification of factors associated with frog disappearances increases understanding of declines occurring in natural populations and aids in conservation efforts to reestablish and protect native ranids by identifying and prioritizing implicated threats.     

BASIN SCALE WATER MANAGEMENT AND FORECASTING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: Water scarcity in the Sevier River Basin in south‐central Utah has led water managers to seek advanced techniques for identifying optimal forecasting and management measures. To more efficiently use the limited quantity of water in the basin, better methods for control and forecasting are imperative. Basin scale management requires advanced forecasts of the availability of water. Information about long term water availability is important for decision making in terms of how much land to plant and what crops to grow; advanced daily predictions of streamflows and hydraulic characteristics of irrigation canals are of importance for managing water delivery and reservoir releases; and hourly forecasts of flows in tributary streams to account for diurnal fluctuations are vital to more precisely meet the day‐to‐day expectations of downstream farmers. A priori streamflow information and exogenous climate data have been used to predict future streamflows and required reservoir releases at different timescales. Data on snow water equivalent, sea surface temperatures, temperature, total solar radiation, and precipitation are fused by applying artificial neural networks to enhance long term and real time basin scale water management information. This approach has not previously been used in water resources management at the basin‐scale and could be valuable to water users in semi‐arid areas to more efficiently utilize and manage scarce water resources.     

土壤矿物固定态铵研究进展

主要从土壤中粘土矿物组成、有机物质、土壤水分、Fe的氧化还原、钾素状况及土壤粘粒的不同层面电荷、净表面电荷、表面电荷均匀性等方面就土壤中固定态铵的固定机制及其对作物的有效性的影响进行了综述;并对近年来土壤中固定态铵的测定方法作一评述。     

The Subjective Rating Scales for Measurement of Mental Workload—Thurstonian Scaling

Subjective rating scales for measuring work demands and individual capabilities to cope with work requirements were developed using the Thurstonian procedure. The scales measure six dimensions of mental workload: mental difficulties, feeling of responsibility, awareness of risk, interpersonal conflicts, monotony, and time pressure. Individual scale results make it possible to assess the level of mental workload understood as a relation between the subjective rating of work demands and individual capabilities in each of the six dimensions. Two versions of scales were prepared: classic and modified ones. To assess the level of reliability of the particular scales, 481 participants were examined twice at a 1-month interval. A procedure to prepare scales for the measurement of other dimensions of mental workload is also presented.     

The Influence of Anchor Devices on the Performance of Retractable Type Fall Arresters Protecting Against Falls From a Height

Retractable type fall arresters are part of the equipment used for protecting people against falls from a height. They are an intermediate part between full body harness worn by a man and the structural anchor at the worksite. The most important task of retractable type fall arresters is to arrest people’s falls and to reduce their harmful consequences. Information received from users as well as laboratories testing protective equipment indicates that the performance of such equipment is incorrect under specific conditions. The paper is concerned with an analysis of the conditions in which retractable type fall arresters demonstrate intermittent performance and with an explanation of that phenomenon. The results of tests investigating anchor devices and the performance of retractable type fall arresters are presented. External and internal factors contributing to intermittent performance have been determined and guidelines for safer use of these devices have been developed.     

飞机实验室风吹雨气候环境试验技术研究

为了解决目前飞机整机风吹雨试验只能在外场自然环境条件下进行,试验周期长,费用大的难题,研究飞机实验室风吹雨试验技术。通过研究飞机遭遇极端气候风吹雨引起的环境效应,基于气候环境实验室风吹雨试验环境条件的建设能力,借鉴国内外相关环境试验标准以及国外飞机气候环境试验经验。规划了飞机整机实验室风吹雨试验项目和试验顺序,设计了飞机实验室风吹雨试验方法,总结了试验需要检测及评估的范畴。为飞机实验室风吹雨试验的实施提供技术参考。     

Development of analytical methods for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons （PAHs） in airborne particulates： A review

In the present work, the different sample collection, pretreatment and analytical methods for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons （PAHs） in airborne particulates is systematacially reviewed, and the applications of these pretreatment and analytical methods for PAHs are compared in detail. Some comments on the future expectation are also presented.     

面向2035的节能与新能源汽车全生命周期碳排放预测评价

发展节能与新能源汽车是降低交通运输行业碳排放的重要技术路径.为量化预测节能与新能源汽车的全生命周期碳排放,利用全生命周期评价方法,以汽车相关技术路线和政策为参考,选取燃油经济性、整车轻量化水平、电力结构碳排放因子和氢能碳排放因子为关键参数,构建传统燃油汽车(ICEV)、轻度混合动力汽车(MHEV)、重度混合动力汽车(HEV)、纯电动汽车(BEV)和燃料电池汽车(FCV)的数据清单并对其全生命周期碳排放进行量化预测评价,对电力结构碳排放因子和不同制氢方式碳排放因子进行了敏感性分析和讨论.结果发现,2022年ICEV、 MHEV、 HEV、 BEV和FCV的全生命周期碳排放量(以CO₂-eq计)分别为208.0、 195.5、 150.0、 113.5和205.0 g·km^-1.到2035年,BEV和FCV相比于ICEV具有较为显著的减碳效益,分别降低69.1%和49.3%.电力结构的碳排放因子对BEV的全生命周期碳排放的影响最显著.关于燃料电池汽车的不同制氢方式,短期应以工业副产氢提纯为主供应FCV氢能需求,长期以可再生能源电解水制氢和化石能源...     

Development of heat transfer and evaporation model of LNG covered by Hi-Ex foam

Natural gas is a kind of clean, efficient green energy source, which is used widely. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is produced by cooling natural gas to −161 °C, at which it becomes the liquid. Once LNG was released, fire or explosion would happen when ignition source existed nearby. The high expansion foam (Hi-Ex foam) is believed to quickly blanket on the top of LNG spillage pool and warm the LNG vapor to lower the vapor cloud density at the ground level and raising vapor buoyancy. To identify the physical structure after it contacted with LN₂ and to develop heat transfer model, the small-scale field test with liquid nitrogen (LN₂) was designed. In experiment, three layers including frozen ice layer, frozen Hi-Ex layer and soft layer of Hi-Ex foam were observed at the steady state. By characterizing physical structure of the foam, formulas for calculating the surface of single foam bubble and counting foam film thickness were deduced. The micro heat transfer and evaporation model between cryogenic liquid and Hi-Ex foam was established. Indicating the physical structure of the frozen ice layer, there were a certain number of icicles below it. The heat transfer and evaporation mathematical model between the frozen ice layer and LNG was derived. Combining models above with the heat transfer between LNG, ground and cofferdam, the heat transfer and evaporation mathematical model of LNG covered by Hi-Ex foam was developed eventually. Finally, LN₂ evaporation rate calculated by this model was compared with the measured evaporation rate. The calculated results are 1.2–2.1 times of experimental results, which were acceptable in engineering and proved the model was reliable.