Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds1

Abstract: Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying “high priority” areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient‐reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.     

金竹山土朱煤矿开采地表沉降规律与灰色预测模型研究

针对金竹山矿业公司土朱煤矿煤层赋存条件,依据采动理论的裂缝垂直分带模型,分析地表沉降和塌陷的机理;提出在采煤活动阶段应进行地表实际位移观测,经数据处理后得到地面沉降曲线,以确保地面人类活动的安全;在采煤活动后阶段则实施灰色预测地面沉降,即通过采煤活动阶段的地表实际观测数据为历史原始数据序列,建立灰色Logistic模型;并对采煤活动后阶段的地面沉降进行预测。精度检验表明:灰色Logistic模型预测精度高,利用该模型预测地面沉降可减少地面沉降监测经费和实时提供预警信息,以确保开采区域内人们生命财产安全。     

Climate dynamics and extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe

Past changes and possible future variations in the nature of extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe and the Alpine region are examined from a physical standpoint. An overview is given of the following key contributory physical processes: (1) the variability of the large-scale atmospheric flow and the associated changes of the North-Atlantic storm track; (2) the feedback process between climate warming and the water cycle, and in particular the potential for more frequent heavy precipitation events; and (3) the catchment-scale hydrological processes associated with variations in major river flooding events and that are related to land-use changes, river training measures, and shifts in the proportion of rain to snowfall. In this context an account is provided of the possible future forecasting and warning methodologies based upon high-resolution weather prediction and runoff models. Also consideration is given to the detectability of past (future) changes in observed (modeled) extreme events. It is shown that their rarity and natural fluctuation largely impedes a detection of systematic variations. These effects restrict trend analysis of such events to return periods of below a few months. An illustration using daily precipitation from the Swiss Alps does yield evidence for pronounced trends of intense precipitation events (return period 30 days), while trends of stronger event classes are not detectable (but nevertheless can not be excluded). The small detection probability for extreme events limits possible mitigation of future damage costs through an abatement of climate change alone, and points to the desirability of developing improved early forecasting/warning systems as an additional no-regret strategy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

水安全及城市水安全研究进展与趋势

归纳和总结国内外水安全及城市水安全相关研究实践及其所用的评价指标体系,并对几种常用模型与方法的应用情况及其各自的特点进行分析,针对目前水安全及城市水安全研究中存在的主要问题,指出水安全及城市水安全进一步研究的方向:从自然、生态环境、社会经济、人文4个基本方向,以系统性、持续性、动态性和层次性4个特征为基础,分析水安全及城市水安全的概念与内涵;根据研究区域特征及其主要水安全问题建立评价指标体系;以研究者对各个模型的理解程度及驾驭能力为准则选用或改造现有模型与方法;针对加强城市应急水源地建设、突发性水安全事件应急预案、湿润地区水安全等问题开展研究。     

企业安全文化评估与企业安全行为的质化研究

通过总结国内外各种不同的安全文化概念,归纳分析了国内外较为流行的近10种安全文化建立模式。在研讨文献的基础上,通过深入访谈、焦点小组与参与观察,归纳构造了一套共11个维度,总题项为152题的安全文化评估量表。通过对选定企业的实证问卷调查,进行统计分析,采用多元逐步回归分析等方法对安全文化各评核因素及整体安全文化进行预测,并以百分数呈现其整体的安全文化现状水平。通过基于扎根理论的各种质化研究方法,对案例企业的安全文化建设和企业安全行为进行研究,得到了7点关于企业安全行为的研究发现,并提出了相应的改进建议。     

Particle fluxes above forests: observations, methodological considerations and method comparisons

This paper reports a study designed to test, evaluate and compare micro-meteorological methods for determining the particle number flux above forest canopies. Half-hour average particle number fluxes above a representative broad-leaved forest in Denmark derived using eddy covariance range from -7x10(7) m(-2) s(-1) (1st percentile) to 5x10(7) m(-2) s(-1) (99th percentile), and have a median value of -1.6x10(6) m(-2) s(-1). The statistical uncertainties associated with the particle number flux estimates are larger than those for momentum fluxes and imply that in this data set approximately half of the particle number fluxes are not statistically different to zero. Particle number fluxes from relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) and eddy covariance are highly correlated and of almost identical magnitude. Flux estimates from the co-spectral and dissipation methods are also correlated with those from eddy covariance but exhibit higher absolute magnitude of fluxes.     

论园林树木栽培学(各论)的精讲教学法

园林树木栽培学是一门实践性很强的有关园林绿化领域的专业课、必修课.1995年以来,本人在园林树木栽培学各论教学中尝试重点讲解、课堂点评的教学方法,取得了较好的教学效果.     

跨界水体联合监测中总磷测定的问题探讨

研究了不同分析方法、去浊度手段和预处理方式对地表水总磷测定的影响。结果表明:钼酸铵分光光度法在跨界水体联合监测中较连续流动分析法、氯化亚锡还原光度法、孔雀绿-磷钼杂多酸分光光度法更为适用;在水样没有色度的情况下,采用浊度-色度补偿法和离心法都能有效消除浊度干扰,相对误差±10%;预处理方式的不同是导致各监测单位测定结果可比性差的最关键因素。     

挥发性有机物污染土壤样品采样方法比较

以苯系物污染土壤样品的采集为例,比较了4种不同采样方法导致样品检测结果的差异。其中,方法 1将样品装填至广口瓶内并压实密封,方法2采用非扰动采样器采集10 g样品后转移至加有10 mL甲醇保护剂的Vial瓶中密封,方法 3用非扰动采样器采集10 g样品后直接将其密封于采样器内,方法 4用Encore采样器采样后将其密封于采样器内。结果表明,方法 2采集样品的检出率最高,其余3种方法的差异不明显,方法 2采集样品的检出结果 71%以上都大于其余3种方法。而且,对于挥发性较强的苯与甲苯,以方法 2采集的样品91%以上都大于其余3种方法,最大及平均检出浓度高出2~3个数量级。5种不同土质样品检测结果表明,对于有机质含量较低的细砂,方法2的最高及平均检出浓度均高于其余3种方法 1~3个数量级,差异随土壤有机质含量的升高而降低。可见,对于苯系物及挥发性强于苯系物的其他挥发性有机物污染土壤样品的采集,方法 2效果最优,可指定为VOCs污染场地土壤样品的采样方法。     

空气质量多模式预报系统在中山市的应用

介绍了中山市空气质量多模式预报系统。对2015年3月—2016年2月的预报效果评估表明:系统可以较好地反映污染物的变化趋势但仍存在系统性偏差。通过对排放源清单的调整优化及对模式干沉降模块的改进使模式系统的偏差显著减小。总结并建立中山市污染天气案例库,发现在典型污染天气形势下,除O3-8 h外,其他污染物均值均能达到空气质量二级标准。未来将从2个方面提高中山市空气质量预报预警系统的实用性,包括逐步实现污染源排放清单的动态及时更新和提高极端气象条件下O3污染预报能力。