Fuzzy experts on recreational vessels, a risk modelling approach for marine invasions

Understanding risks from the human-mediated spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) is a critical component of marine biosecurity management programmes. Recreational boating is well-recognised as a NIS pathway, especially at a regional scale. Assessment of risks from this pathway is therefore desirable for coastal environments where recreational boating occurs. However, formal or quantitative risk assessment for the recreational vessel pathway is often hampered by lack of data, hence often relies on expert opinion. The use of expert opinion itself is sometimes limited by its inherent vagueness, which can be an important source of uncertainty that reduces the validity and applicability of the assessment. Fuzzy logic, specifically interval type-2 fuzzy logic, is able to model and propagate this type of uncertainty, and is a useful technique in risk assessment where expert opinion is relied upon. The present paper describes the implementation of a NIS fuzzy expert system (FES) for assessing the risk of invasion in marine environments via recreational vessels. The FES was based on expert opinion gathered through systematic elicitation exercises, designed to acknowledge important uncertainty sources (e.g., underspecificity and ambiguity). The FES, using interval type-2 fuzzy logic, calculated an invasion risk value (integrating NIS infection and detection probabilities) for a range of invasion scenarios. These scenarios were defined by all possible combinations of two vessel types (moored and trailered), five vessel components (hull, deck, internal spaces, anchor, fishing gear), two infection modes (fouling, water/sediment retention) and six frequently visited marine habitats (marina, mooring, farm, ramp, wharf, anchorage). Although invasion risk values determined using the FES approach was scenario-specific, general patterns were identified. Moored vessels consistently showed higher invasion risk values than trailered vessels. Invasion risk values were higher for anchorages, moorings and wharves. Similarly, hull-fouling was revealed as the highest infection risk mode after pooling results across all habitats. The NIS fuzzy expert system presented here appears as a valuable prioritising and decision-making tool for NIS research, prevention and control activities. Its easy implementation and wide applicability should encourage the development and application of this type of system as an integral part of biosecurity, and other environmental management plans.     

Inorganic elemental concentrations in birch bolete mushroom (Leccinum scabrum) and top soil: contamination profiles,bioconcentation and annual variations

Abstract

Analysis of inorganic and organic contaminants in foodstuffs aids in understanding the human exposure to these compounds via consumption. In this study, an edible mushroom species (Leccinum scabrum) and top soil samples were analysed for essential and toxic substances including phosphorus and inorganic elements over a period of three fruiting seasons. Analysis of silver (Ag), aluminium (Al), barium (Ba), calcium (Ca), cadmium (Cd), cobalt (Co), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), mercury (Hg), potassium (K), magnesium (Mg), manganese (Mn), sodium (Na), nickel (Ni), phosphorus (P), lead (Pb), rubidium (Rb), strontium (Sr) and zinc (Zn) in mushrooms and topsoil were performed using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES) with ultrasonic cross flow nebulizer. Total mercury was determined by cold-vapour atomic absorption spectroscopy (CV-AAS). The results exhibited wide variation in concentrations of metals between soil and mushroom (cap and stipes) during three fruiting seasons. Positive bioconcentration factors (BFCs) indicate on bioaccumulation of several metals including, Cd, Cu, Hg, K, Mg, Na, P, Rb and Zn in caps and stipes of fruitbodies of this mushroom, while other metals such as Al, Ba, Ca, Co, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Sr were not exhibiting significant positive BFCs. Over a period studied, the caps were characterised by different (p?<?0.05) concentrations of Al, Co, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, P, Pb and Sr. Contamination profiles, temporal fluctuations, BCFs should be taken into consideration when assessing the nutritional value of this mushroom.     

Ambio’s legacy on monitoring,impact, and management of acid rain: This article belongs to Ambio’s 50th Anniversary Collection. Theme: Acidification

Early studies published in Ambio showed large-scale acidification of lakes in southern Sweden and Norway from acid rain. These studies were important for delimiting various scientific issues and thus for eventually contributing to legislation, which reduced emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides and helped to mitigate this major environmental problem. Long-term studies and monitoring in Sweden and Norway and at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire helped guide this legislation in Europe and in the USA.     

长江口-浙闽沿岸沉积色素的分布特征及其指示意义

利用高效液相色谱法分析了长江口-浙闽沿岸表层沉积物中的色素组成和含量,探讨了海洋初级生产力、浮游植物功能类群和浮游植物色素保存效率的空间分布特征及其影响因素.结果表明,沉积物中的色素类型主要为沉积绿素(chloropigments,Chlorins)[包括叶绿素a(chlorophyll-a,Chl-a)及其降解产物(pheopigments,Pheo-a),如脱镁叶绿素a(pheophytin-a,PHtin-a)、脱镁叶绿酸a(pheophorbide-a,PHide-a)、焦脱镁叶绿素a(p Pheophytin-a,p PHtin-a)、甾醇绿素酯(sterol chlorin esters,SCEs)和胡萝卜醇绿素酯(carotenol chlorin esters,CCEs)].Chlorins高值区呈南北两大斑块状分布,可能主要是受到长江冲淡水及浙闽沿岸泥质区上升流输运的营养盐的影响.研究区域内类胡萝卜素整体上无明显趋势性变化,在长江口以及浙闽沿岸各呈现一个高值区.基于沉积物中特征类胡萝卜素比例估算得到的浮游植物功能类群中硅藻、甲藻、定鞭藻、青绿藻、隐藻和蓝藻的相对贡献分别为48.8%±17.4%、10.7%±11.5%、8.1%±7.2%、18.6%±8.2%、9.4%±6.4%和4.3%±3.2%.对营养盐水平、水体盐度等外界环境的偏好导致硅藻和甲藻比例离岸降低,青绿藻、隐藻和蓝藻比例离岸增加.Chl-a/Pheo-a比值的分布表明,较高的沉积速率以及季节性的底层水体缺氧事件导致了近岸海域(长江口最大浑浊带外缘、杭州湾湾口以及浙闽沿岸上升流区)具有较高的沉积色素保存效率,这些沉积色素保存效率较高的区域可能是进行海洋生态环境历史重建的理想区域,而杭州湾水体通过舟山群岛与外部海水进行水体交换时造成的较差沉积环境可能是导致杭州湾外海具有较低沉积色素含量和较低保存效率的主要原因.     

人为干扰对小兴安岭森林湿地土壤碳组分和酶活性的影响

以小兴安岭落叶林沼泽湿地为研究对象,对比研究皆伐地、火烧地和落叶松湿地土壤碳组分和酶活性.结果表明:(1)3种湿地类型土壤SOC含量表现为对照地显著高于皆伐地和火烧地(p0.05),在0~10 cm土层中皆伐地与对照地相比降低了58.38%,火烧地与对照地相比降低了61.96%.皆伐地与火烧地在不同土层的土壤中SOC含量差异不显著(p0.05);DOC含量对照地显著高于皆伐地和火烧地(p0.05).在0~10cm土层中火烧地DOC含量是皆伐地的1.99倍,两者差异不显著(p0.05);不同干扰方式对土壤MBC含量影响的差异主要表现在0~10 cm的土层土壤,对照地分别比皆伐地和火烧地高23.13%和95.79%(p0.05).在不同的土层中皆伐地MBC含量均大于火烧地,与SOC含量的变化趋势一致.(2)与对照地相比,皆伐地与火烧地0~10 cm土层的土壤蔗糖酶活性分别降低了45.59%和36.76%,脲酶活性显著降低了18.22%和55.69%(p0.05),蛋白酶活性降低了19.65%和17.34%,淀粉酶活性降低了6.29%和10.69%.土壤碳组分和酶活性在垂直方向上均表现为随着土层深度增加而减小.皆伐和火烧造成森林湿地土壤碳组分和酶活性降低.     

喀斯特常绿与落叶阔叶混交林过去50年来的碳循环模拟

通过对Forest-DNDC模型的植被和土壤参数本地化校准,以气象插值数据为输入,模拟了贵州省普定县高原型喀斯特次生常绿与落叶阔叶混交林1965~2014年的土壤、植被和生态系统碳循环特征。结果表明,与冷模拟和实测值相比,参数本地化校准后的模型能更准确地模拟春、秋、冬3个季节的土壤呼吸动态,而模拟的夏季土壤呼吸偏小;但统计检验指出,参数修订后的Forest-DNDC模型能够较好地模拟喀斯特森林土壤呼吸,降低了模拟误差,可用于喀斯特常绿与落叶阔叶混交林碳动态的模拟。进一步分析发现,1965~2014年喀斯特森林的碳通量除模拟早期的前3~4年急剧增加之外,随后总初级生产力(GPP)保持相对稳定,植物呼吸(Rplant)和生态系统呼吸(R_(ecosystem))随着森林发育而增加,土壤呼吸(R_(soil))减少,植被净初级生产力(NPP)呈迅速减小趋势;净生态系统碳交换量(NEE)亦较迅速下降,在2013年达到最低值-0.17 t C/ha,喀斯特森林由碳汇变为弱碳源。相关分析表明,年均温度和年降水对喀斯特常绿与落叶阔叶混交林的GPP和R_(soil)没有显著影响,但却显著影响NPP、R_(plant)、R_(ecosystem)和NEE。     

区域森林火灾危害程度评价指标构建

为弥补用发生次数和受害森林面积评价森林火灾危害程度的不足,在拟定了林火次数比率、森林燃烧率、森林受害面积比率、每起森林火灾平均受害面积、森林火灾发生次数变异系数、受害森林面积变异系数6个指标的基础上,利用权重法确定了综合指标。结果表明,单一指标可以从某个方面评价森林火灾危害程度,综合指标则能更好地评价某个区域森林火灾的危害程度,更便于区域间的比较和评价。     

非均相类Fenton试剂的制备及其在焦化废水处理中的应用研究

利用浸渍法,将Fe3＋负载在经酸碱改性后的粉状活性炭上,当浸渍液浓度为2．5％,固化温度为270℃时,制成的催化剂催化活性较高。用自制的非均相类benton试剂降解焦化废水,通过正交试验和极差分析得出,影响因素的主次顺序为催化剂用量〉初始pH值〉反应时间〉H：0：投加量。结果表明,在100ml水样中。室温条件下,初始pH值为4．0,催化剂使用量为1．5g,H20：投加量为5ml（分两次投加）,反应时间为90min时,COD去除率可达99％。采用混凝＋化学沉淀＋非均相类Fenton试剂法处理焦化废水,各主要出水水质指标为：色度lO倍;COD浓度38．5mg／L;氨氮浓度8．4mg／L,达到国家一级排放标准。     

森林碳汇功能的研究进展

因全球温室效应和气候变化影响,以及森林对CO2的固定作用,使林业碳汇得到了世界各国的广泛支持和发展。文章主要围绕森林植被碳汇、土壤碳汇研究现状,森林碳汇功能的不确定性以及森林管理与碳汇的关系4个方面对国内外森林碳汇的研究进展简要综述,为森林碳汇的科学研究提供基础。     

沾益县花山煤化工园区防护林建设探究

介绍了花山煤化工园区基本情况,从花山特殊的生态功能区,防护林建设产生的生态效益、社会效益、经济效益,防护林建设改变当地小气候,发挥多功能防护作用等方面阐述了建设沾益县花山煤化工园区防护林的必要性,并对其防护林的建设提出建议。