Ecological risk and accessibility analysis to assess the impact of roads under Habitats Directive

We propose a method for the appropriate assessment of adverse effects of roads in compliance with the European Union Habitats Directive. The method incorporates an analysis of ecological risk of edge effects by the proposed roads with the related increase in accessibility. The method was tested on 30 km of planned forest roads inside an 8,000-ha reserve included in two Natura 2000 sites. As a result, the cumulative effect of 19 road segments was judged as not significantly affecting the integrity of the sites, although they made accessible an extra 314 ha. On the basis of the accessibility calculation, 20 ha of land were set aside from forest exploitation as a mandatory mitigation measure. The method objectively determined the cumulative adverse effects, enabled comparison of plan revisions and alternatives and proved to measure direct and indirect significant effects with a realistic effort in terms of field survey and geographic information system processing.     

复合链式结构下中国林业碳库系统测度模型构建

温室气体上升导致的全球气候变暖问题不容忽视,增加森林碳汇和木质林产品碳储是缓解温室效应的有效途径。根据森林碳汇功能与林产品碳储功能的关联理论与模型,推导和改进包括森林子碳库、土壤子碳库及木质林产品子碳库在内的林业碳库核算模型及方法,以实现目标碳从森林碳库向木质林产品碳库的过渡与转移。基于气候变化背景下森林-林产品产业链的发展现状,构建包括森林子碳库和林产品子碳库的复合一体化林业碳库模型,使之为中国林业碳库的计量与评价提供判据。首先,对包含森林子碳库和木质林产品子碳库在内的世界林业碳库的发展现状进行探讨,归纳和比较国内外主流的关联林业碳库评估方法模型,从而对中国林业碳库模型的构建提供理论背景支持和逻辑方法支撑。其次,分析现有中国林业碳库评估存在的优势和弊端,找出适合中国林业特点的国家碳库创新评估路径,运用政府间气候变化专门委员会指定的生产法的思路,通过分析目标碳在林产品产业链生产、加工等过程中的流入和支出,提出创新中国林业碳库的模型构想并对其系统内涵进行分析。最后,赋予中国林业碳库系统模型数学表达,分析其数理结构并进行逻辑演绎,在森林子碳库和木质林产品子碳库两个复合链式体系下构建中国林业碳库系统测度模型(ForestProducts Carbon Model/FPCM)。     

庐山不同森林植被类型土壤特性及其健康评价

土壤作为森林生态系统的一个重要因子,评价森林土壤健康状况对森林健康的维护经营以及森林系统功能的发挥具有重要意义。在系统调查和分析庐山8种森林植被类型土壤特性的基础上,评价指标分别从物种多样性以及不同的森林土壤特性中进行筛选,包括物种多样性系数、枯落物层厚度、腐殖质层厚度、土层厚度、容重、粘粒含量、有机质、p H值、阳离子交换量、全氮、水解氮、有效磷、速效钾、磷酸酶活性等指标,基于SPSS19.0软件对所获得数据进行差异性检验和相关分析,确定各项指标的权重,应用合适的土壤健康评分函数,将测得的指标值转换为对应指标的分值,最后通过加权综合法,计算其土壤健康指数,并对不同森林植被类型土壤健康状况进行评价。结果表明,8种森林植被类型下最终的土壤健康指数大小排序为:针阔混交林(0.78)常-落混交林(0.72)灌丛(0.69)常绿阔叶林(0.67)落叶阔叶林(0.64)竹林(0.59)马尾松林(0.53)黄山松林(0.46)。     

Forest resources and household welfare: Empirical evidence from North Central Vietnam

Using secondary data from a socio-economic quantitative household survey of the North Central region of Vietnam, the main aim of our study is to analyze the causal effect of forest resources on household income and poverty. Based on the observed characteristics of a forest-based livelihood and forest-related activities, we use a propensity score matching (PSM) method to control for potential bias arising from self-selection. The PSM results indicate that households with a forest-based livelihood had a higher level of income and lower poverty rates than did those without. Interestingly, our findings confirm that a forest-based livelihood offers much higher income than any other type of livelihood adopted by local households. Also, the poverty rate among households with a forest-based livelihood is lower than those earning non-labor income or engaged in wage/crop and crop livelihoods. Among households and provinces, we find varying opportunities deriving from forest resources, suggesting that there are potential barriers hindering local households from pursuing a forest livelihood or participating in some forest activities. Therefore, government policy and regulations on forest management should focus on improving the access of households to forest resources, while enhancing the sustainability of these resources.     

西南山地区域森林火险综合预报模型研究——以重庆市为例

森林火灾严重破坏森林生态系统的结构和功能,针对其风险预报开展研究具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。通过融合气象、地表覆盖和人类活动等要素的方式构建森林火险综合预报模型,是西南山地区域森林火险综合预报业务化应用的重要发展方向。基于《森林火险气象等级》国家标准(GB/T 36743-2018),本文研究首先构建了重庆市森林火险气象风险预报模型。然后通过融合可燃物因素和人为因素的方式,进一步构建重庆市森林火险综合预报模型。最后利用历史火点数据针对上述两类模型的精度进行对比和分析。研究结果表明:重庆市森林火灾发生次数较多,且呈现出季节性规律;重庆市森林火灾的发生不仅受到气象条件的影响,而且受到地表覆盖和人类活动等多种要素条件的共同影响;与森林火险气象风险预报结果相比,森林火险综合预报结果在空间分布上具有更高的精细程度;森林火险综合预报模型能有效提高森林火险等级预报精度。     

Mapping the Spatial Variability of Plant Diversity in a Tropical Forest: Comparison of Spatial Interpolation Methods

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of plant species is essential to conservation and forest managers in order to identify high priority areas such as vulnerable species and habitats, and designate areas for reserves, refuges and other protected areas. A reliable map of the diversity of plant species over the landscape is an invaluable tool for such purposes. In this study, the number of species, the exponent Shannon and the reciprocal Simpson indices, calculated from 141 quadrat sites sampled in a tropical forest were used to compare the performance of several spatial interpolation techniques used to prepare a map of plant diversity, starting from sample (point) data over the landscape. Means of mapped classes, inverse distance functions, kriging and co-kriging, both, applied over the entire studied landscape and also applied within vegetation classes, were the procedures compared. Significant differences in plant diversity indices between classes demonstrated the usefulness of boundaries between vegetation types, mapped through satellite image classification, in stratifying the variability of plant diversity over the landscape. These mapped classes, improved the accuracy of the interpolation methods when they were used as prior information for stratification of the area. Spatial interpolation by co-kriging performed among the poorest interpolators due to the poor correlation between the plant diversity variables and vegetation indices computed by remote sensing and used as covariables. This indicated that the latter are not suitable covariates of plant diversity indices. Finally, a within-class kriging interpolator yielded the most accurate estimates of plant diversity values. This interpolator not only provided the most accurate estimates by accounting for the indices' intra-class variability, but also provided additional useful interpretations of the structure of spatial variability of diversity values through the interpretation of their semi-variograms. This additional role was found very useful in aiding decisions in conservation planning.     

A Simulation Study to Assess the Sensitivity of a Forest Health Monitoring Network to Outbreaks of Defoliating Insects

The sensitivity of the United States Forest Health Monitoring network to outbreaks of defoliating insects was examined by means of a simulation study. A model constructed specifically for the study was used to generate a wide variety of defoliation patterns in forested landscapes. Forest configuration was that of Minnesota, USA, as expressed by the GAP land cover classification. Combinations of model parameters were based on a Latin Hypercube sample. The relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak characteristics was then examined via multiple regression. Both theoretical and model results pointed to a strong, linear relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak size. Model results provided additional insight, suggesting a significant relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and other outbreak characteristics after outbreak size was taken into account.     

Evaluation of Carbon Uptake and Emissions by Forests in Korea During the Last Thirty Years (1973–2002)

The contribution of Korean forests to carbon sequestration for anthropogenic carbon emissions was evaluated. In addition, monitoring of carbon species released from forest fires was conducted. Despite a high carbon uptake by Korean forests, a tremendous increase in fossil fuel burning resulted in a small contribution by forests to carbon removal. The removal efficiency had a 5–31% range with an average of 12% during the period 1973–2002. In 2000, the amount of carbon released from burned trees corresponded to 1.6% of carbon uptake by forests. The distribution of surface CO concentration (ppb) derived from MOPITT (Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere) showed high CO levels over the East/Japan Sea on April 10, 2000 when the largest forest fires occurred along the east coast of Korea. Trajectory analysis and ground CO measurements also indicated that CO levels over the East/Japan Sea were influenced by forest fires. This study suggests that continuous monitoring of carbon emissions from forest fires is needed for a more reliable estimate of carbon flux in the environment.     

基于随机森林的突发事件分级模型研究

突发事件的分级是快速响应和有效应对的基础,为了解决目前突发事件分级宽泛、主观性强和动态适应性弱等问题,将多分类器集成引入突发事件的分级过程中,借助随机森林组合分类器,针对突发事件特征,构建突发事件分级的随机森林模型,形成突发事件分级过程,进而对事前的应急预案制定、事中的应急资源配置和应急决策提供有力支撑;最后,以2014-2016年洪涝灾害突发事件为例检验构建的模型和过程。研究结果表明:与支持向量机方法相比,通过检验随机森林组合分类器分类结果准确率达到97.56%,在突发事件分级的应用上是可行的,进而可为突发事件的快速响应和应急决策提供信息支撑和参考依据。     

MBR技术的发展及应用

介绍了目前MBR的主要类型、膜污染情况、膜清洗方式以及MBR在不同领域的应用情况和工程实例,对MBR技术未来的发展趋势进行了预测。