Simulation model of universal law of school size distribution applied to southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) in the Great Australian Bight

A universal law of animal group size distribution correlates well to observed fish school size distribution from fisheries catch data. I applied the law to fisheries independent aerial survey data of southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) collected over a 10-year period in the Great Australian Bight. The law does not correlate to the observed school size distribution. A computer model originally demonstrated the formation of the universal law from simple rules. I redesigned this model as an individual-based simulation model calibrated from acoustic tag observations and state a mathematical formula for a resultant new family of transient group size distributions. The new formula correlates accurately to the simulation and to the aerial survey data. I use the mathematical model to estimate area of aggregation and total abundance. This approach is new as it does not seek stationary states of group size distribution and because it demonstrates a quantitative relationship between individual behaviour and group size distribution. This work elevates the pattern of group size distribution from a curiosity to a useful tool, and introduces a new family of transient distributions that may have a general application to other grouping phenomena.     

絮凝体分形维数投药控制研究

依据分形理论,通过先进的图像分析处理技术,实现了对絮凝体分形维数的联机在线监测,试验证实分形维数可以很好地反映絮凝程度及其混凝处理效果,通过建立的混凝剂投加量、分形维数及沉后水浊度三者间的模糊控制模型,最终实现了对混凝剂投加量的自动控制与调节.     

水系分形特征对流域径流特性的影响——以赣江中上游流域为例

以赣江流域中上游的8个水文站点所控制的流域为研究对象,以水系分形维数为指标来描述流域水系特征,以Hurst指数为指标来描述流域径流序列复杂性,研究两者之间的关系,并分析流域水系特征、水系变迁对流域旱涝灾害的影响。研究表明,流域水系分维数越高,水系越复杂,其径流深序列Hurst指数则越高,其径流过程则越简单,反之亦然。径流序列的复杂程度在一定程度上可以反映出洪涝干旱灾害发生的可能性,径流越复杂,则洪涝干旱灾害发生可能性越高。因此,一般来说水系分维越高,水系越复杂,则洪涝干旱灾害发生的可能性也就越低。各流域水系分维与径流深序列的关系,可以在一定程度上说明水系变迁对洪涝干旱灾害的影响：在气温、降水、地形、植被等要素变化不大的情况下,水系、河网消亡将增加洪涝灾害和干旱灾害发生的可能性。     

瓦斯涌出严重程度分形预测研究

为了研究瓦斯涌出严重程度与地质构造之间的定量关系,以某矿井田为例,采用分形几何学手段研究了井田地质构造的分形特征,并将构造分维数与瓦斯涌出严重程度作了对比分析。其结果表明:所研究矿井田地质构造具有分形特征,构造分维数能够定量地描述地质构造的复杂程度,构造分维数与瓦斯涌出严重程度之间存在正相关关系,分维值大于1.3的区域是有可能发生瓦斯异常涌出的区域。该研究成果对于高瓦斯矿井进行瓦斯区域预测研究具有重要的理论和实用价值。     

融合分心维度的驾驶行为可靠性研究

分心驾驶容易影响驾驶行为,进而导致交通事故的问题。用理论建模方法,研究分心对驾驶行为及其可靠性的影响。介绍分心驾驶的定义和维度。基于驾驶行为理论,建立融合分心维度的驾驶行为模型,分析不同分心维度对驾驶行为的影响机理。基于可靠性理论,建立融合分心维度的驾驶行为可靠性模型,分析不同分心维度对驾驶行为可靠性的影响。结果表明:不同维度分心对驾驶行为的影响具有各自特点和交互性;减少影响系数高的分心维度,有助于提高驾驶行为可靠性;多维度分心比单维度分心会更大程度地降低驾驶行为可靠度,应减少或避免复合分心。     

寺家庄井田煤储层渗透率表征方法优选

煤储层渗透率是影响瓦斯抽采与煤层气开发的重要参数,快速评价不同结构煤体的渗透率对指导现场工作有重要意义。以寺家庄井田为例,为了优选出表征煤储层渗透率的合适方法,通过裂隙分形维数、声波速度和地质强度指标(GSI)对煤体结构进行定量表征,测试其渗透率,依据表征的难易程度和二者拟合系数进行对比。结果表明:裂隙分形维数与渗透率相关性显著,但是操作较为繁琐且不适用于软煤;声波速度法操作简单,但与渗透率关系不明显;地质强度指标与渗透率具有显著的相关性,操作简单,适用于所有煤体结构。因此,寺家庄井田煤储层渗透率表征的最佳方法为地质强度指标法。     

A meta‐analysis of studies on attitudes toward bears and wolves across Europe 1976–2012

The ranges of wolves (Canis lupus) and bears (Ursus arctos) across Europe have expanded recently, and it is important to assess public attitudes toward this expansion because responses toward these species vary widely. General attitudes toward an object are good predictors of broad behavioral patterns; thus, attitudes toward wolves and bears can be used as indicators to assess the social foundation for future conservation efforts. However, most attitude surveys toward bears and wolves are limited in scope, both temporally and spatially, and provide only a snapshot of attitudes. To extend the results of individual surveys over a much larger temporal and geographical range so as to identify transnational patterns and changes in attitudes toward bears and wolves over time, we conducted a meta‐analysis. Our analysis included 105 quantitative surveys conducted in 24 countries from 1976 to 2012. Across Europe, people's attitudes were more positive toward bears than wolves. Attitudes toward bears became more positive over time, but attitudes toward wolves seemed to become less favorable the longer people coexisted with them. Younger and more educated people had more positive attitudes toward wolves and bears than people who had experienced damage from these species, and farmers and hunters had less positive attitudes toward wolves than the general public. For bears attitudes among social groups did not differ. To inform conservation of large carnivores, we recommend that standardized longitudinal surveys be established to monitor changes in attitudes over time relative to carnivore population development. Our results emphasize the need for interdisciplinary research in this field and more advanced explanatory models capable of capturing individual and societal responses to changes in large carnivore policy and management.     

景观格局破碎化的粒度特征及其变异的分形定量研究

文章构建一种用于定量测度景观破碎化指标空间粒度特征的分形方法.该方法基于景观粒度特征中的幂律关系,利用双对数线性回归方法,获取了景观破碎化指标在粒度变换过程中的2个数量关系:拟合优度R2与分维数D,分别刻画景观指标粒度变换的分形特性和随空间粒度变化的程度.以1992—2011年间上海市景观破碎化的过程为例,利用提出的分形方法进行分析.研究显示,总体上内部生境面积破碎化指标FI1和FI2没有清晰的分形特性;均匀性指标EI在1992年分形特性显著而在2011年分形特性却不清晰;斑块形状破碎化指标FS1其分形特性同样不清晰,而指标FS2呈现显著的分形特性,并且分维数D表现为正值,即随空间粒度的增大景观指标FS2的值减小.结果表明,拟合优度R2与分维数D的有机组合,能够定量地刻画景观破碎化中的粒度变化特征.研究同时发现,景观指标随空间粒度的变化特征,受指标内在特性、研究数据、研究区域的景观结构以及实验数据重采样方法和方案的影响.该分形方法不但可以用来测度所例举的5种景观破碎化指标的粒度特征,更适用于测度Fragstats中被广泛使用的各种景观指标.     

中国土壤颗粒组成的分形特征研究

以土壤颗粒组成数据为基础,分析了我国土壤颗粒组成的分形维数。结果表明,不同质地的分形维数存在一定的差异,分形维数随土壤质地的变细而增大;由北至南、由西向东和由西南至东北,我国主要地带性土壤的分形维数逐渐递增;成土母质对土壤质地分形维数有很大影响,易风化母质上发育的土壤质地分形维数高于难风化母质上发育的土壤。