城市燃气事故生命损失风险可接受标准研究

为提高我国城市燃气风险管理水平,帮助风险管理者科学地分配维护资源,探讨提出了我国城市燃气事故生命损失风险可接受标准;采用AIR指标法确定了个人风险可接受标准范围为(2.397 3×10-7,4.794 7×10-7);运用F-N曲线法结合ALARP原则,确定了社会风险可接受标准,最大可接受风险的截距为4.794 7×10-7,可忽略风险的截距为4.794 7×10-8;利用生活质量指数推导模型,计算了达到城市燃气事故可忽略风险水平的最优安全投入成本;基于风险动态原则,分析提出了风险可接受标准的更新办法。研究结果表明:我国城市燃气行业可接受风险水平低于煤矿、大坝、化工等危险行业的可接受风险水平;虽然我国城市燃气事故死亡率逐年降低,但要达到可忽略的风险水平,每年还需大量安全资金投入。     

基于自动种子区域生长的火焰分割算法

在存在壁面反射的低照度火灾环境中,传统的火焰分割算法如颜色分割、运动检测等,在进行火焰分割时造成过分割现象,分割的效果不理想,影响后续的火灾正确识别。针对上述问题,提出了一种基于自动种子区域生长(Automatic Seeded Region Growing,ASRG)的火焰分割算法。首先将从火灾视频中获取的火灾图像从RGB颜色空间转换到YCbCr颜色空间,在Y通道中采用较大自适应阈值背景减法将火灾图像二值化,分别将可疑火焰像素点的横坐标和纵坐标按大小进行排序,取排序后的中间值作为种子点,再由原RGB火灾图像转换而成的灰度图像中,以该种子点进行区域生长,最后将区域生长后的火焰分割图像与采用较小自适应阈值背景减法得到的火焰分割图像进行交集处理,得到最终的火焰分割图像。实验表明ASRG算法在存在壁面反射的低照度火灾环境中,火焰分割效果好,有效解决了该环境下的火焰过分割问题,同时在其他火灾环境中也有较好的火焰分割效果。     

黄河中上游能源化工区大气污染跨界环境影响分析

对黄河中上游能源化工区近地面和边界层顶气象流场及该区域大气污染长距离输送产生的跨界环境影响趋势特征进行了分析。结果表明,该区域近地面和边界层顶的流场总体上为西北向东南流动,大气污染物长距离输送可能影响的区域主要为华中地区;区域冷空气的活动对其大气污染物的清除起重要作用;通过CALPUFF模型的模拟结果表明,该区域SO2的影响程度和范围明显大于NO2,在区域内部存在污染物浓度较高的区域,但未对区外造成显著跨界环境影响。     

福州市城区内河引闽冲污后水质变化趋势及防治对策

简述了福州市城区内河河网结构特点和河网水文特征,对1994年-2003年福州城区内河的水质变化趋势进行了分析和评价。结果表明,自1998年福州市全面开始内河引水冲污工程后,内河水质得到了改善,有机污染得到缓解,基本消除了水体的黑臭现象。指出了在内河整治中存在的一些问题。提出,应优化引水方案,最大限度发挥效益;明确河段的使用功能,发挥其潜能;开展生物防治,建立良性循环的水生生态系统,对内河实施综合管理。     

Features of fatal injuries in older cyclists in vehicle–bicycle accidents in Japan

Objective: The purpose of this study was to identify and better understand the features of fatal injuries in cyclists aged 75 years and over involved in collisions with either hood- or van-type vehicles.

Methods: This study investigated the fatal injuries of cyclists aged 75 years old and over by analyzing accident data. We focused on the body regions to which the fatal injury occurred using vehicle–bicycle accident data from the Institute for Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis (ITARDA) in Japan. Using data from 2009 to 2013, we examined the frequency of fatally injured body region by gender, age, and actual vehicle travel speed. We investigated any significant differences in distributions of fatal injuries by body region for cyclists aged 75 years and over using chi-square tests to compare with cyclists in other age groups. We also investigated the cause of fatal head injuries, such as impact with a road surface or vehicle.

Results: The results indicated that head injuries were the most common cause of fatalities among the study group. At low vehicle travel speeds for both hood- and van-type vehicles, fatalities were most likely to be the result of head impacts against the road surface.

The percentage of fatalities following hip injuries was significantly higher for cyclists aged 75 years and over than for those aged 65–74 or 13–59 in impacts with hood-type vehicles. It was also higher for women than men in the over-75 age group in impacts with these vehicles.

Conclusions: For cyclists aged 75 years and over, wearing a helmet may be helpful to prevent head injuries in vehicle-to-cyclist accidents. It may also be helpful to introduce some safety measures to prevent hip injuries, given the higher level of fatalities following hip injury among all cyclists aged 75 and over, particularly women.     

吉林省城市紧凑度与城市效率的时空演变及相关性

紧凑城市理念被认为可以有效提高城市经济发展效率,减少城市在开发建设、资源配置等方面的低效率。为探究我国城市紧凑度和城市效率的时空演变及两者间的相关性,本研究以吉林省地级及以上城市为研究对象,研究时间段选择为2000—2013年。研究主要分为三个部分。第一部分,运用熵值法,对吉林省地级及以上城市的紧凑度时空演变特征进行研究,研究发现,吉林省城市紧凑度平均水平较低,并且空间分布极不均衡,受区位和经济发展水平影响较大,高紧凑度城市基本位于哈大城市走廊一线。第二部分运用DEA数据包络模型,对吉林省城市效率演变特征进行研究,结果显示,吉林省城市效率在经过了长期的反复波动后于2012年步入快速增长阶段,受多种因素影响,各城市全要素生产率增长节奏迥异,但都表现出与技术进步一致的变动性,城市经济发展对新技术、新的生产要素投入的依赖较大,资源利用效率整体较低。第三部分运用R语言对吉林省城市紧凑度与城市效率的相关性进行了研究,两者间存在极弱的相关性,接着借助象限图法得出两者在不同时间段内存在一定程度的同步性,紧凑度提升时大部分城市的城市效率会出现提升,紧凑度的下降不一定有效引起城市效率同步下降。     

基于改进粒子群算法和元胞自动机的城市扩张模拟——以南京为例

为合理利用多智能体算法解决城市扩张动态模拟问题,基于地理学理论和社会学规律对粒子群算法进行有针对性的改进,提出分段式粒子群算法(SPSO),并结合元胞自动机模拟复杂时空过程的能力,构建出适用于城市扩张模拟的地理元胞自动机SPSO-CA。在SPSO-CA中我们利用多时像的土地利用数据、交通路网数据和地形数据,挖掘出1995~2000年南京城市扩张的土地转换规则。再由此规则实现1995~2008年的南京市城市扩张过程的动态模拟。最后对比SPSO-CA、PSOCA及NULL模型结果得:SPSO-CA总精度86.3%,Kappa系数为0.792,Moran’s I为0.078,PSO-CA总精度83.6%,Kappa系数为0.755,Moran’s I为0.054,NULL模型总精度81.9%,Kappa系数为0.741,真实的Moran’s I为0.072。这表明无论是总精度还是空间一致性,SPSO-CA都优于PSO-CA和NULL模型,即用SPSO-CA模拟城市扩张是可行的。     

CO2 emission driving forces and corresponding mitigation strategies under low-carbon economy mode: evidence from China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region

On account of the background of China’s “new normal” characterized by slower economic growth, this paper analyses the low-carbon economy status quo in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region and empirically investigates the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and its various factors for China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region using panel data econometric technique. We find evidence of existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve. Results also show that economic scale, industrial structure, and urbanization rate are crucial factors to promote CO₂ emissions. However, technological progress, especially the domestic independent research and development, plays a key role in CO₂ emissions abatement. Next, we further analyze the correlation between each subregion and various factors according to Grey Relation Analysis. Thereby, our findings provide important implications for policymakers in air pollution control and CO₂ emissions reduction for this region.     

Relationship between cultivated land use functions and land rental behavior of rural households: empirical evidence from different dominant functional regions in central China

This paper analyzes the relationship between the cultivated land use functions and the land rental decisions of rural households in three Dominant Functional Zones of Hubei, China. The results indicate that 41.10% of the rural households in the study areas participated in the land rental market. The land rental market in the Key Development Zone has both a higher participation rate and land rent; the Agricultural Production Zone has a higher participation rate but a lower land rent; and the land rental market in the Key Ecological Zone is underdeveloped. The difference in regional function and economic level leads to a significant difference in the spatial variation of the cultivated land use multifunction. Overall, the cultivated land function of rural households has a significant impact on their land transfer behavior. The higher the Functions of Economic Contribution, Food Production, and Pension & Employment, the more willing the rural households are to rent in the land, while the higher the Function of Inheritance and Retainment of the cultivated land use, the more likely the peasants are to retain their cultivated land resources. Furthermore, the correlation coefficient is significantly higher in the Key Development Zone than in the Key Ecological Zone.     

我国长江流域中三角区域大气污染物排放特征研究

中三角区域已经是我国第四个国家级城市群,也将成为我国经济增长的"第四极"。在经济发展的同时,更需要以节能减排、资源环境等为重点,以实现经济建设与生态文明"双可持续"的协同发展。本文以二氧化硫、氮氧化物、烟(粉)尘为主要大气污染物,对我国中三角区域大气污染物排放进行了详细的分析,并与京津冀、长三角、珠三角、"三区十群"等进行了多方位比较。结果表明,2013年中三角区域二氧化硫排放量为151.7万t,其中工业二氧化硫排放量为140.1万t;氮氧化物排放量为147.2万t,其中工业氮氧化物排放量为93.6万t;烟(粉)尘排放量为81.8万t,其中工业烟(粉)尘排放量为71.4万t。中三角区域二氧化硫、氮氧化物、烟(粉)尘排放量均位于"四极"的第三。中三角区域二氧化硫、氮氧化物、烟(粉)尘单位GDP排放强度分别为25.03t/亿元、24.29 t/亿元、13.50 t/亿元,分别位于"四极"的第一、第二、第二。同时,本文还从经济发展模式、产业结构调整、煤炭消费方式等方面对我国中三角等经济"四极"提出了相关建议。