The idea of sustainable development

In this lecture, I demonstrate how very different macroeconomic history begins to look if Nature is included as a capital asset in production activities. The tentative conclusions I draw from the evidence are: (1) high population growth in the world’s poorest regions (South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa) has been an obstacle to the achievement of sustainable economic development there; relatedly, (2) when population growth is taken into account, the accumulation of manufactured capital, knowledge, and human capital (health and education) has not compensated for the degradation of natural capital in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa and, in all probability, even in the UK and the US; (3) China is possibly an exception to (1) and (2). This article is based on the Keynote Lecture delivered at the international symposium on “Sustainability in an Unequal World”, held in Tokyo on November 24, 2006. The exposition relies on my book, Economics: A Very Short Introduction, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2007. The author is the Frank Ramsey Professor of Economics at the University of Cambridge and a Fellow of St. John’s College, Cambridge.     

Identification of rice cultivars with low brown rice mixed cadmium and lead contents and their interactions with the micronutrients iron, zinc, nickel and manganese

Paddy fields in mining areas are usually co-contaminated by a cocktail of mixed toxic heavy metals (e.g., Cd and Pb in Pb/Zn mines). However, previous studies on rice cultivars screened for effective metal exclusion have mostly focused on individual metals, and have been conducted under pot-trial or hydroponic solution conditions. This study identified rice cultivars with both low Cd and Pb accumulation under Cd-and Pb-contaminated field conditions, and the interactions of the toxic elements Cd and Pb with the micronutrient elements Fe, Zn, Mn and Ni were also studied. Among 32 rice cultivars tested, there were significant differences in Cd (0.06-0.59 mg/kg) and Pb (0.25-3.15 mg/kg) levels in their brown rice, and similar results were also found for the micronutrient elements. Significant decreases in concentrations of Fe and Mn were detected with increasing Cd concentrations and a significant elevation in Fe, Mn and Ni with increasing Pb concentrations. A similar result was also shown by Cd and Ni. Three cultivars were identified with a combination of low brown rice Cd and Pb, high micronutrient and grain yield (Wufengyou 2168, Tianyou 196 and Guinongzhan). Present results suggest that it is possible to breed rice cultivars with low mixed toxic element (Cd, Pb) and high micronutrient contents along with high grain yields, thus ensuring food safety and quality.     

基于随机森林的耕地利用效率测度模型构建及其应用

构建合适的量化分析模型是科学把握耕地利用状况及利用效率的基础性工作,可为制定合理有效的耕地资源管控政策,实现耕地利用与生态环境的协调发展提供决策依据。为了更准确地反映耕地利用系统的复杂性、动态性及差异性等特征,鉴于随机森林的基本思想,运用随机抽样Bootstrap法在合理构建分类树的基础上,构造了耕地利用效率测度的RF模型,进而以中国粮食主产区172个城市为例训练该模型并将其运用至2003-2015年的耕地利用效率测度中,同时将BP神经网络和熵权法作为对比验证其一致性、代表性和优越性。结果表明：（1）耕地利用效率测度的RF模型不受量纲限制,运行所需参数少,运算过程简化,能够较为精确地模拟各评价指标间的复杂联系,科学量化各评价指标对耕地利用效率的贡献。（2）对同一空间单元的效率值而言,RF>BPNN>EW,RF与BPNN所得效率值的总体分布格局相似,且均与EW的测度结果存在较大差异。（3）从评价结果与现实的匹配度和精度表征参数来看,RF的测度结果与自然和社会经济发展等客观事实更相符,具有较高的适用性与可靠性。同时,与其余两种常用模型相比,RF能够降低计算复杂度,提高训练效率,其测度结果的相关系数R为0.8685,M_RPD为2.3533,且具有最小M_MSE0.0174和M_MAE0.0211,更适用于复杂非线性特征的耕地利用效率研究。     

Kinetic and thermodynamic studies on partitioning of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) between aqueous solution and modeled individual soil particle grain sizes

The significance of soil mineral properties and secondary environmental conditions such as pH, temperature, ionic strength and time in the partitioning of eight selected polychlorinated biphenyl(PCB) congeners between aqueous solution and soil particles with different grain sizes was studied. The mineral properties of a model soil sample were determined, and Brunauer–Emmett–Teller(BET) adsorption–desorption isotherms were employed to observe the surface characteristics of the individual modeled soil particles.Batch adsorption experiments were conducted to determine the sorption of PCBs onto soil particles of different sizes. The results revealed that the sorption of PCB congeners onto the soil was dependent on the amount of soil organic matter, surface area, and pore size distribution of the various individual soil particles. Low pH favored the sorption of PCBs,with maximum sorption occurring between pH 6.5 and 7.5 with an equilibration period of 8 hr.Changes in the ionic strength were found to be less significant. Low temperature favored the sorption of PCBs onto the soil compared to high temperatures. Thermodynamic studies showed that the partition coefficient(K_d) decreased with increasing temperature, and negative and low values of ΔH° indicated an exothermic physisorption process. The data generated is critical and will help in further understanding remediation and cleanup strategies for polluted water.     

防灾工程动态投资决策分析

本文应用最优控制理论对作者在文献[1]中所建立的两个防灾工程多变量动态投资决策模型进行了求解和理论分析。在一些基本符合工程实际的假设下得到了模型的解析解以及一些有意义的结果。     

CONJUNCTIVE SURFACE AND GROUND WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE JAKARTA REGION,INDONESIA1

ABSTRACT: This study investigates the degree of economic inefficiency of the current institutional arrangements for surface and ground water management in meeting urban water demand in the Jakarta region. A numerical model of integrated surface and ground water management is developed using GAMS (General Algebraic Modelling System) software. The model maximizes the net present value of social benefits from piped water and ground water consumption across all users over time from 1999 to 2025. Four policy scenarios are examined: the status quo, the social planner's solution, and two ground water pumping quota scenarios: an aggregate ground water pumping quota and a partial quota applied to commercial and industrial users. Three variations in each policy scenario are considered: investment in water infrastructure of the Jakarta water enterprise (PAM Jaya), water demand growth, and discount rates. The status quo, depending on the investment option, the growth of water demand, and the discount rate, results in a 7.4 to 47.8 percent loss in economic efficiency relative to the social planner's solution. The partial quota is the most feasible, applicable, and manageable scenario. The optimal investment option could increase the volume of piped water supply and reduce the cost of water production. The volume of water delivery could increase by up to 156 percent, but it implies only a 35 percent increase in the surface raw water demands above the current level. However, it does not significantly reduce cumulative ground water extraction over the time period considered.     

Maternal investment in Antarctic fur seals: evidence for equality in the sexes?

Studies of the otariids (fur seals and sea lions), a highly sexually dimorphic group, have provided conflicting evidence of differential maternal expenditure in male and female offspring and, thus, suggestions that they conform to predictions of investment theory are equivocal. Since the mid-1970s, a diversity of research on Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella) including studies of their reproductive ecology, lactation energetics, and foraging behaviour have been conducted at Bird Island, South Georgia that have resulted in one of the more complete and diverse data sets for any species of otariid. These long-term data were reviewed to determine whether there was any evidence to support that differential maternal expenditure occurred in Antarctic fur seals. Most of the data examined were collected during five consecutive austral summers from 1988 through 1992 and included years in which local food resources were abundant and scarce. We were unable to detect differences in the sex ratios of pups at birth or sex-biased differences in growth rates estimated from serial data, the number of foraging trips made, the duration of attendance ashore, diving behaviour, suckling behaviour, or milk consumption in any year and in the duration of foraging trips or age at weaning in 2 of 3 years. In addition, we found no evidence of greater reproductive costs between mothers with sons or daughters relative to their reproductive performance the following year. In contrast, sex-biased differences were only found in the duration of foraging trips in 1990, the age at weaning in 1988, and consistently in growth rates estimated from cross-sectional data. We suggest that differential maternal expenditure does not occur in Antarctic fur seals because male pups probably do not gain greater benefit from additional maternal expenditure than female pups. After weaning, males experience a period of rapid juvenile growth over 3–4 years during which time body mass nearly trebles. This growth will almost certainly be dependent upon available food resources then rather than on any maternal expenditure received over the first 4 months of life and, thus, the assumptions of the Trivers and Willard hypothesis are probably invalid for Antarctic fur seals. Received: 10 July 1996 / Accepted after revision: 3 March 1997     

长江流域粮食资源及生产发展方向

论述长江流域发展粮食生产的重要性，分析粮食资源分布，生产状况，生产结构和地域差异，指出粮食合理布局的方向，提出以粮食集中产区为重点，建设长江流域粮食生产专业化地并以建设商品粮基地为建带突破口。     

安全投资经济分析与效益评价

安全投资分析的目的是实现必要的安全功能,减少损失,保障企业的生产安全,以便集中投资,获取最大的安全效益。笔者给出了安全效益的新定义,以安全价值和边际效益分析为基础,结合企业安全生产实际,采用FTA法,分析安全所具有的功能与所耗成本的关系。揭示安全投入在生产经营活动中的作用,发现和消除不必要的安全投入,提高安全资金的利用率,以便优选安全措施方案和确定安全投资的方向,选择最优经济投入方案。运用数学方法,分析在多种生产要素限制条件下,安全投资对社会和其他方面影响的最优化问题。采用技术经济方法,评价净现值、内部收益率和投资回收期各指标是否符合设定值,确保安全投资项目的可行性,以利于人们对安全投入的认识,强化企业安全投入工作。     

Preliminary Studies on Converting Agricultural Waste into Biodegradable Plastics—Part IV: Polysaccharide Containing Natural Materials

Corn distillers’ dry grain, corncob powder, hardwood powder, and sugar beet pulp were separately anionized by oxidation with sodium hypochlorite in aqueous solution. Solid reaction products instantly precipitated upon admixing each of the above-oxidized materials with soy protein isolate. Infrared spectra and differential scanning calorimetry supported the hypothesis that soy protein isolate complexed with all of the above-oxidized polysaccharides. Reaction products with either oxidized corn distillers’ dry grain or oxidized sugar beet pulp provided hard, brittle pellets with tensile strengths as high as 9.5 MPa, suggesting that these materials could be viable as biodegradable plastics.