森林火灾灾情快速预判模型

为在火灾发生时进行灾情的快速评估,为消防决策提供参考,提出一种简化的林火蔓延模型。通过遥感影像,获取火灾首日燃火点和火场边界,利用风向、风速和USDA蔓延模型数据库中对应植被类型的蔓延速度,进行林火蔓延计算,预判无干扰状态下的林火蔓延范围,以达到灾情快速预判的目的。通过2006年黑龙江省和2009年中蒙边境特大森林草原火灾案例的分析,结合运用卫星遥感图像对逐天火迹和火点解译的结果,验证该模型的可靠性及适用性。研究结果表明,基于实时遥感影像与气象预报信息,运用简化的林火蔓延模型,并结合林火宏观扩散的特征,能够对火灾灾情的发展进行快速研判。     

Forest health conditions in North America

Some of the greatest forest health impacts in North America are caused by invasive forest insects and pathogens (e.g., emerald ash borer and sudden oak death in the US), by severe outbreaks of native pests (e.g., mountain pine beetle in Canada), and fires exacerbated by changing climate. Ozone and N and S pollutants continue to impact the health of forests in several regions of North America. Long-term monitoring of forest health indicators has facilitated the assessment of forest health and sustainability in North America. By linking a nationwide network of forest health plots with the more extensive forest inventory, forest health experts in the US have evaluated current trends for major forest health indicators and developed assessments of future risks. Canada and Mexico currently lack nationwide networks of forest health plots. Development and expansion of these networks is critical to effective assessment of future forest health impacts.     

Multi-criteria forest road network planning in fire-prone environment: a case study in Serbia

This paper presents a multi-criteria selection of the best forest road network with the aim of achieving effective preventive and timely repressive protection against forest fires. The research was carried out in national park (NP) “Tara” at a site which is under constant threat of fire. Four variants of the forest road network were designed and analyzed against seven criteria, and the best variant was selected using entropy weight coefficients (EWC) method. The importance of these seven criteria was studied by the management of the NP “Tara.” The greatest importance was given to the criteria relating to the cost of construction and maintenance of permanent and temporary roads (47% of the total value of all criteria). The EWC method did not select the variant based on the lowest costs of construction and maintenance as the best option, but the variant whose location was the most suitable for effective defense against forest fires.     

Model Assessment of Air-Pollution in Prague

Results of relatively simple gaussian dispersion model are presented. This model, developed in the beginning of this decade, is suitable mainly for determination of spatial distributions of annual mean concentrations of such kinds of air-pollution as sulphur dioxide (SO₂), mixture of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) or suspended particulate matter (SPM) from all types of emission sources located within the city - point sources, line sources and area sources. Model has been used in years 1994, 1996 and 1998 to assess the air-pollution distributions of the above mentioned kinds in the Prague area and the development of the air quality state. It contributed to the decision making process when possible impact of some changes in traffic system or in system of domestic heating, for example, has been investigated. In this contribution, behaviour of sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and mixture of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) ground concentration distributions are analyzed with respect to changing emission situation in Prague in recent years. Results show that SO₂ ground concentration level decreases mainly due to changes in local heating methods and type of fuel used. Different trend can be seen in NO_x ground concentrations thanks to rapid increase in the traffic density.     

Aquifer Transmissivity and Basement Structure Determination Using Resistivity Sounding at Jos Plateau State Nigeria

A geoelectric investigation involving twenty-six vertical electrical soundings was carried out at Jos, Plateau State, North Central Nigeria. The survey was aimed at determining the structure of the underlying bedrock, as well as computing the transmissivity for the aquifer in the area. The basement geometrymapproduced from the results of the survey indicates that the bedrock is undulating lying at depths between 30 m to 6.5 m. There is evidence of faulting and fracturing within the area. Computation of aquifer transmissivity values based on the results obtained made it possible to demarcate regions with good ground water potential in the area.     

Spatial Distribution of Forest Fires and Controlling Factors in Andhra Pradesh, India Using Spot Satellite Datasets

Fires are one of the major causes of forest disturbance and destruction in several dry deciduous forests of southern India. In this study, we use remote sensing data sets in conjunction with topographic, vegetation, climate and socioeconomic factors for determining the potential causes of forest fires in Andhra Pradesh, India. Spatial patterns in fire characteristics were analyzed using SPOT satellite remote sensing datasets. We then used nineteen different metrics in concurrence with fire count datasets in a robust statistical framework to arrive at a predictive model that best explained the variation in fire counts across diverse geographical and climatic gradients. Results suggested that, of all the states in India, fires in Andhra Pradesh constituted nearly 13.53% of total fires. District wise estimates of fire counts for Andhra Pradesh suggested that, Adilabad, Cuddapah, Kurnool, Prakasham and Mehbubnagar had relatively highest number of fires compared to others. Results from statistical analysis suggested that of the nineteen parameters, population density, demand of metabolic energy (DME), compound topographic index, slope, aspect, average temperature of the warmest quarter (ATWQ) along with literacy rate explained 61.1% of total variation in fire datasets. Among these, DME and literacy rate were found to be negative predictors of forest fires. In overall, this study represents the first statewide effort that evaluated the causative factors of fire at district level using biophysical and socioeconomic datasets. Results from this study identify important biophysical and socioeconomic factors for assessing ‘forest fire danger’ in the study area. Our results also identify potential ‘hotspots’ of fire risk, where fire protection measures can be taken in advance. Further this study also demonstrate the usefulness of best-subset regression approach integrated with GIS, as an effective method to assess ‘where and when’ forest fires will most likely occur.     

南京市四种下垫面气温日变化规律及城市热岛效应

为了监测城市热岛特征、热场空间分布及综合评价城市环境质量,探讨消减城市热岛效应对策,2005年7—9月期间,通过对南京市的中心城区夫子庙、城市湖泊玄武湖、城市森林紫金山、城市郊区浦口四个观测点选取水泥地、草地、林地和水体四种下垫面进行温度、湿度、风速等气象因子的24 h同步观测,结果表明,(1)四个观测点的四种下垫面白天气温呈林地<水体<草地<水泥地的变化趋势,夜晚则是相反,但草地的温度最低;与水泥地比较,其他3种下垫面白昼期有明显的降温效应,均幅度为0.2~2.9℃,而夜晚林地与水体有轻微的保暖效应,晴好无风天气时这种效应更明显。(2)南京市的热岛强度平均为0.5~3.5℃,凌晨3:00左右热岛强度较大且平稳,当日出后热岛强度减小,但在中午12:00左右有一个明显回升,然后下降,至傍晚18:00~21:00,热岛强度有个强烈提升的高峰。(3)利用各观测点温度的时间标准差、空间标准差及时空数据正规化的标准差定量与定性的揭示了城市景观与城市下垫面对城市热岛效应变化的影响机理。(4)不同观测点舒适度指数表明观测期间人们对温度、湿度和风速日变化的综合生理感觉是暑热到较舒适间的变化过程,紫金山和浦口有时给人舒适的感觉。基于实验观测数据,对南京市不同下垫面的温度日变化规律、热岛强度特征、舒适度指数以及相关成因机理进行了全面分析与探讨,为城市生态建设、城市规则、城市环境治理及城市绿化建设提供重要的理论参考。     

Meta‐Analysis of the Effectiveness of Marked Wire in Reducing Avian Collisions with Power Lines

Abstract: Collisions of birds with power transmission and distribution lines have been documented for many species, and cause millions of casualties worldwide. Attempts to reduce mortality from such collisions include placing bird flight diverters (i.e., wire markers in the form of, e.g., spirals, swivels, plates, or spheres) on static and some electrified wires to increase their visibility. Although studies of the effectiveness of such devices have yielded contradictory results, the implementation of flight diverters is increasing rapidly. We reviewed the results of studies in which transmission or distribution wires were marked and conducted a meta‐analysis to examine the effectiveness of flight diverters in reducing bird mortality. We included in our meta‐analysis all studies in which researchers searched for carcasses of birds killed by a collision with wires. In those studies that also included data on flight frequency, we examined 8 covariates of effectiveness: source of data, study design, alternate design (if marked and unmarked spans were alternated in the same line), periodicity of searches for carcasses, width of the search transect, and number of species, lines, and stretches of wire searched. The presence of flight diverters was associated with a decrease in bird collisions. At unmarked lines, there were 0.21 deaths/1000 birds (n =339,830) that flew among lines or over lines. At marked lines, the mortality rate was 78% lower (n =1,060,746). Only the number of species studied had a significant influence on effect size; this was larger in studies that addressed more species. When comparing mortality at marked and unmarked lines, we recommend use of the same time intervals and habitats and standardizing the periodicity of carcass searches.     

Emissions of PCDD and PCDF from combustion of forest fuels and sugarcane: a comparison between field measurements and simulations in a laboratory burn facility

Release of PCDD and PCDF from biomass combustion such as forest and agricultural crop fires has been nominated as an important source for these chemicals despite minimal characterisation. Available emission factors that have been experimentally determined in laboratory and field experiments vary by several orders of magnitude from <0.5 μg TEQ (t fuel consumed)⁻¹ to >100 μg TEQ (t fuel consumed)⁻¹. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of experimental methods on the emission factor.A portable field sampler was used to measure PCDD/PCDF emissions from forest fires and the same fuel when burnt over a brick hearth to eliminate potential soil effects. A laboratory burn facility was used to sample emissions from the same fuels. There was very good agreement in emission factors to air (EF_Air) for forest fuel (Duke Forest, NC) of 0.52 (range: 0.40-0.79), 0.59 (range: 0.18-1.2) and 0.75 (range: 0.27-1.2) μg TEQ_WHO2005 (t fuel consumed)⁻¹ for the in-field, over a brick hearth, and burn facility experiments, respectively. Similarly, experiments with sugarcane showed very good agreement with EF_Air of 1.1 (range: 0.40-2.2), 1.5 (range: 0.84-2.2) and 1.7 (range: 0.34-4.4) μg TEQ (t fuel consumed)⁻¹ for in-field, over a brick hearth, open field and burn facility experiments respectively. Field sampling and laboratory simulations were in good agreement, and no significant changes in emissions of PCDD/PCDF could be attributed to fuel storage and transport to laboratory test facilities.     

马鞍山市城区主干道近地面空气质量调查

为调查马鞍山市城区主干道近地面空气质量状况,马鞍山市环境监测中心站于1999年1月19日～1月21日对城区3条主干道的5个监测点近地面空气质量进行了监测.结果表明,在城市整体环境空气质量良好的情况下,交通干道近地面空气污染较严重,主要污染源是机动车尾气,NOx、CO、TSP是特征性污染物,其中NOx平均分布浓度与车流量近似成正相关,从时间分布上看,NOx平均分布浓度早上最高,晚上次之,中午最低.指出,为改善城市的环境空气质量,必须加强对机动车尾气的监督管理.