中国环境污染与经济增长关系的实证分析

运用主成分分析法、格兰杰因果分析法、基于VAR模型的广义脉冲响应函数法与方差分解法对我国1989-2009年期间环境污染与经济增长的动态关系进行了研究.结果表明,经济增长是导致我国环境污染的重要原因,发展经济带来的环境恶化具有滞后性;经济增长的代价是环境污染,且这种交换是一种长期模式.然而,环境污染带来的经济增长却是短暂的,其动力很快将会消失殆尽,并长期反作用于经济增长,制约经济的长期发展.     

资源环境承载力研究的缘起与发展

随着我国学习实践科学发展观的不断深入,理论和实践界越来越重视在资源环境承载力的允许范围内推进经济的可持续发展.回顾资源环境承载力相关研究的缘起与理论演变,从理论层面上对资源环境承载力相关问题进行系统梳理,理清脉络,这是正确制定和实施可持续发展战略的理论前提.     

辽宁省经济发展与环境污染水平计量模型研究

选取辽宁省1981-2009年经济与环境数据,通过计量模型探讨辽宁省经济增长与环境质量的演替轨迹.结果表明,1981-2009年辽宁省环境库兹涅茨曲线大体呈现“倒U形+U形+倒U形”特征,即“M形”,表明辽宁省的综合环境污染水平随经济增长呈现波动变化;工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量、工业固体废物产生量等单项指标的环境库兹涅茨曲线形态分别为“U形”曲线左侧部分、“U形+倒U形”和“U形”曲线右侧部分;进一步分析表明,辽宁省EKC特征与工业结构变化、环境保护投资等有显著相关性.     

Numerical simulation for impacts of hydrodynamic conditions on algae growth in Chongqing Section of Jialing River, China

Hydrodynamic conditions are important factors for planktonic algae growth, through introducing two parameters which express the optimal velocity and the velocity range for planktonic algae growth, a new velocity factor was put forward for the formula of growth rate. Therefore, the two-dimensional unsteady ecological dynamic model for algae growth was established to analyze the effects of hydrodynamic conditions on algae growth in Chongqing Reach of Jialing River in China. The temporal and spatial distribution of Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration was simulated numerically for various water levels, under climate conditions in period of high frequency for algae blooms of Three Gorges Reservoir and nutrition status at present in the research reach. The corresponding locations and areas of likely algae blooms were analyzed and forecasted. The results showed that about 0.04 m s⁻¹ was the optimal velocity for algae growth, and the occurrence of algae blooms in large scale is almost impossible because of relatively high water flow velocity for Jialing River.     

Growth and pollution convergence: Theory and evidence

Stabilizing pollution levels in the long run is a pre-requisite for sustainable growth. We develop a neoclassical growth model with endogenous emission reduction predicting that, along optimal sustainable paths, pollution growth rates are (i) positively related to output growth (scale effect) and (ii) negatively related to emission levels (defensive effect). This dynamic law reduces to a convergence equation that is empirically tested for two major and regulated air pollutants – sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides – with a panel of 25 European countries spanning the years 1980–2005. Traditional parametric models are rejected by the data. More flexible regression techniques confirm the existence of both the scale and the defensive effect, supporting the model predictions.     

大气监测时段优化布点技术研究

基于虚拟仪器技术的空气监测系统中电化学气体传感器价格昂贵且使用寿命短暂,文章利用多目标特征分析法对传感器监测时段进行布点,准确反映实时监测状况,减少传感器使用频率。     

人工强制混合充氧及诱导自然混合对水源水库水质改善效果分析

为探究人工强制混合充氧与诱导持续混合对水质改善的影响及人工强制混合与自然混合的衔接条件,以李家河水库为例,于2017年6月至2019年4月开展水质及水文气象指标监测,分析自然过程及人工诱导混合过程各时期水温、溶解氧及水质变化特征.结果表明:①自然过程分层期持续时间长,混合期仅为2.5个月,人工诱导混合过程通过扬水曝气系统的运行, 9月底水体达到完全混合且进入降温期,诱导自然混合条件具备,表层水温、平均气温分别为20.17℃和16.5℃,此时系统关闭后水体持续自然混合,混合周期延长至5.5个月;②自然过程污染物浓度较高,混合期表层污染物浓度呈现先增加后降低的趋势,氧跃层伴随热分层出现,底部厌氧周期达6个月;③相较于自然过程,人工诱导混合过程水体等温层厌氧消除且污染物控制效果良好, 10月至翌年3月同期底层NH~+_4-N、 TP、 Fe和Mn浓度的削减率为76.2%、 75.5%、 82.2%和82.1%,均达到地表水环境质量标准,人工诱导混合过程有利于水质改善及混合作用时效的延长.     

基于细胞尺度的光照对四尾栅藻生长的影响

以四尾栅藻（Scenedesmus quadricauda）为研究对象,采用平行平板流动腔装置,基于计算机视觉的藻细胞动态生长观察方法,从单细胞尺度研究不同光照强度对四尾栅藻藻细胞生长的影响.成功建立了四尾栅藻个体生长曲线模型,模型拟合效果良好.结果表明：在8000lux光照强度下,藻细胞的体积最大比生长速率最大,即四尾栅藻生长的最适光照强度为8000lux;适宜的光照条件可以增加藻细胞分裂时的大小,小于8000lux时,藻细胞分裂体积随着光照强度的增加而增加,大于8000lux时,藻细胞分裂时体积反而越来越小;较高的光照强度还有利于藻细胞适应新的环境,减少藻细胞复苏时间.     

成都地区气溶胶散射吸湿增长因子双变量模型

基于成都市2017年10～12月逐时的“干”气溶胶散射系数和吸收系数观测数据,结合该时段同时次的能见度（V）、相对湿度（RH）以及二氧化氮（NO₂）监测资料,利用“光学综合法”计算气溶胶散射吸湿增长因子,并探究了气溶胶散射吸湿增长因子单变量f（RH）模型的适用性及其改进方案.结果表明：幂函数、二次多项式、幂指函数形式的f（RH）模型在低RH条件下（RH<85%）均能很好地模拟气溶胶散射吸湿增长因子随RH的变化特征,但在高RH条件下（RH>85%）的模拟值会出现较大的偏差.黑碳质量浓度（C_BC）是影响气溶胶散射吸湿增长因子的另一关键变量,二者之间满足非线性关系.以RH和C_BC为自变量构建了气溶胶散射吸湿增长因子双变量f（RH,C_BC）模型,模型计算值和实测值之间的决定系数R²为0.763,平均相对误差MRE为14.28%.双变量模型f（RH,C_BC）的应用显著改善了气溶胶散射消光系数的模拟效果.     

A provider-based water planning and management model--WaterSim 4.0--for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

Uncertainty in future water supplies for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area (Phoenix) are exacerbated by the near certainty of increased, future water demands; water demand may increase eightfold or more by 2030 for some communities. We developed a provider-based water management and planning model for Phoenix termed WaterSim 4.0. The model combines a FORTRAN library with Microsoft C# to simulate the spatial and temporal dynamics of current and projected future water supply and demand as influenced by population demographics, climatic uncertainty, and groundwater availability. This paper describes model development and rationale. Water providers receive surface water, groundwater, or both depending on their portfolio. Runoff from two riverine systems supplies surface water to Phoenix while three alluvial layers that underlie the area provide groundwater. Water demand was estimated using two approaches. One approach used residential density, population projections, water duties, and acreage. A second approach used per capita water consumption and separate population growth estimates. Simulated estimates of initial groundwater for each provider were obtained as outputs from the Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) Salt River Valley groundwater flow model (GFM). We compared simulated estimates of water storage with empirical estimates for modeled reservoirs as a test of model performance. In simulations we modified runoff by 80%-110% of the historical estimates, in 5% intervals, to examine provider-specific responses to altered surface water availability for 33 large water providers over a 25-year period (2010-2035). Two metrics were used to differentiate their response: (1) we examined groundwater reliance (GWR; that proportion of a providers' portfolio dependent upon groundwater) from the runoff sensitivity analysis, and (2) we used 100% of the historical runoff simulations to examine the cumulative groundwater withdrawals for each provider. Four groups of water providers were identified, and discussed. Water portfolios most reliant on Colorado River water may be most sensitive to potential reductions in surface water supplies. Groundwater depletions were greatest for communities who were either 100% dependent upon groundwater (urban periphery), or nearly so, coupled with high water demand projections. On-going model development includes linking WaterSim 4.0 to the GFM in order to more precisely model provider-specific estimates of groundwater, and provider-based policy options that will enable "what-if" scenarios to examine policy trade-offs and long-term sustainability of water portfolios.