三峡库区消落带农用坡地磷素径流流失特征

消落带是三峡库区重要的生态交错带,但自发农用和无序开发可能会造成更多的氮磷流失,进而加剧三峡库区水体富营养化。通过对库区连续3 a的定位监测（2011~2013年）,研究了三峡库区消落带农用坡地的磷素流失特征。结果表明：次降雨事件中常规施肥处理的地表径流、壤中流总磷平均浓度分别为0.848±0.153、0.140±0.006 mg/L,其中地表径流中磷的形态以颗粒态为主,壤中流以溶解态的生物可利用磷为主。常规施肥下,地表径流、壤中流磷素年均流失通量分别为0.236±0.004、0.100±0.003 kg·hm 2,地表径流、壤中流磷素流失通量分别占总流失通量的70.2%、29.8%,地表径流是坡地磷素流失的主要途径,但壤中流也是不可忽视的重要途径。与常规施肥处理相比,减量施肥处理地表径流、壤中流磷素流失量分别降低了45.3%、40.0%。建议采取减量施肥的方式,以降低营养盐负荷,保护水环境。     

沼泽湿地水生无脊椎动物完整性指数构建与健康评价

依据2017年5、7、9月对三江平原19处沼泽湿地(参照湿地6处,受损湿地13处)的水生无脊椎动物采样结果,应用生物完整性理论和方法,构建水生无脊椎动物完整性指数,评价三江平原沼泽湿地健康状况。通过对27个候选指标的分布范围、判别能力和相关性分析,筛选出总分类单元数、扁卷螺科百分比、龙虱科百分比、刮食者百分比4个指标构成水生无脊椎动物完整性指数核心指标。采用比值法计算各指标参数值,将各参数值加和得到水生无脊椎动物完整性指数值。根据参照湿地水生无脊椎动物完整性指数值的25%分位数值确定评价标准,对小于25%分位数的值进行三等分,确定三江平原沼泽湿地健康评价标准:≥2.58,无干扰;1.72～2.58,轻度干扰;0.86～1.72,中度干扰;0～0.86,重度干扰。结果表明:所调查的三江平原沼泽湿地有78.95%受到不同程度的干扰(其中47.37%受到了中重度干扰),21.05%属于无干扰。     

珠江口表层水中多环芳烃的分布特征及健康风险评估

分别于2015年2、5、8、11月在珠江八大入海口采集表层水体样品,应用固相萃取富集法对该区域表层水体中16种USEPA优控多环芳烃(PAHs)的时空分布特征进行分析,并利用终生致癌风险增量模型(ILCR)对该区域的饮水健康风险进行评价。结果表明:珠江口4个季度所采集的水样中,∑15PAHs的浓度范围为18.0~50.3 ng/L,含量处于中等水平。其中7种强致癌性∑7PAHs的浓度范围为1.53~3.73 ng/L,占∑15PAHs的5.89%~11.1%,∑15PAHs和∑7PAHs在枯水期(2、11月)样品中明显高于丰水期(5、8月)。就组成特征而言,各采样点PAHs以3、4环为主。珠江口表层水中非致癌类PAHs的危害商数值为0.99×10~(-5)~2.73×10~(-5),远低于USEPA规定的阈值(1);致癌类PAHs产生的健康风险为6.50×10~(-8)~2.37×10~(-7),其中Ba P导致的饮水途径健康风险最高,所有点位致癌类PAHs的健康风险均低于USEPA推荐的对致癌物质最大可接受风险水平(10~(-6)),表明珠江口表层水中PAHs尚不具备严重的致癌风险,但是仍然存在潜在的健康风险,需要重点控制和管理。     

我国城市居民健康状况及影响因素研究

随着中国城市化、工业化快速推进,城市居民的健康日益受到环境、外部压力等因素的影响,加上生活方式和健康观念方面的原因,城市居民健康状况的改善缓慢.利用2006年中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)截面数据,描述了我国城市居民的健康及其分布状况,利用Ordered Probit模型分析了影响城市居民的健康状况的各类因素.结果发现:家庭状况、生活习惯、就医决策、医疗保险等因素均影响城市居民的健康水平;尤其是在收入、工作等经济因素之外,健康观念、就医决策和保险覆盖等社会和制度因素亦对城市居民个人健康产生影响.同时,通过逐步回归控制相关变量的方法,检验了Grossman模型的适用性,同时也检验了影响因素作用机制的稳定性.在总结研究结论与不足的基础上,提出了应从经济,社会和制度三个层面全面促进城市居民健康的综合改革框架.     

Tracking nitrogen losses in a greenhouse crop rotation experiment in North China using the EU-Rotate_N simulation model

Vegetable production in China is associated with high inputs of nitrogen, posing a risk of losses to the environment. Organic matter mineralisation is a considerable source of nitrogen (N) which is hard to quantify. In a two-year greenhouse cucumber experiment with different N treatments in North China, non-observed pathways of the N cycle were estimated using the EU-Rotate_N simulation model. EU-Rotate_N was calibrated against crop dry matter and soil moisture data to predict crop N uptake, soil mineral N contents, N mineralisation and N loss. Crop N uptake (Modelling Efficiencies (ME) between 0.80 and 0.92) and soil mineral N contents in different soil layers (ME between 0.24 and 0.74) were satisfactorily simulated by the model for all N treatments except for the traditional N management. The model predicted high N mineralisation rates and N leaching losses, suggesting that previously published estimates of N leaching for these production systems strongly underestimated the mineralisation of N from organic matter.     

Using multivariate regression modeling for sampling and predicting chemical characteristics of mixed waste in old landfills

Municipal solid waste landfills pose a threat on environment and human health, especially old landfills which lack facilities for collection and treatment of landfill gas and leachate. Consequently, missing information about emission flows prevent site-specific environmental risk assessments. To overcome this gap, the combination of waste sampling and analysis with statistical modeling is one option for estimating present and future emission potentials. Optimizing the tradeoff between investigation costs and reliable results requires knowledge about both: the number of samples to be taken and variables to be analyzed.This article aims to identify the optimized number of waste samples and variables in order to predict a larger set of variables. Therefore, we introduce a multivariate linear regression model and tested the applicability by usage of two case studies. Landfill A was used to set up and calibrate the model based on 50 waste samples and twelve variables. The calibrated model was applied to Landfill B including 36 waste samples and twelve variables with four predictor variables.The case study results are twofold: first, the reliable and accurate prediction of the twelve variables can be achieved with the knowledge of four predictor variables (Loi, EC, pH and Cl). For the second Landfill B, only ten full measurements would be needed for a reliable prediction of most response variables. The four predictor variables would exhibit comparably low analytical costs in comparison to the full set of measurements. This cost reduction could be used to increase the number of samples yielding an improved understanding of the spatial waste heterogeneity in landfills.Concluding, the future application of the developed model potentially improves the reliability of predicted emission potentials. The model could become a standard screening tool for old landfills if its applicability and reliability would be tested in additional case studies.     

环境健康价值评估中的年龄效应研究

在环境健康价值评估研究中,统计寿命价值和年龄之间的关系是理论和实证研究焦点之一,也是重要的学术问题。长久以来,环境政策效益评估中是否应该赋予老年人较低的统计寿命价值一直存在广泛争议,且尚未得到一致性结论。通过设计选择实验,对北京市空气质量改善的健康效益进行了抽样调查,并采用MNL模型对北京市约500个居民的调查数据进行回归分析,估算了不同年龄人群对健康风险减少的支付意愿,针对中国人群中统计寿命价值和年龄之间的关系进行实证探讨。结果表明:一方面,在总体样本中设置年龄虚拟变量,回归结果表明年龄变量系数的符号均显著为负,即年龄因素对减少空气污染带来的死亡风险降低的支付意愿具有显著的影响,年龄越大支付意愿相对越小;另一方面,不同年龄人群分组样本结果显示,统计寿命价值与年龄之间呈现"倒U型"关系,统计寿命价值在中国存在"老年折扣"现象。研究结果可为我国环境政策的健康效益分析中如何考虑年龄的影响提供重要依据。     

台风灾害债券设计——基于广东省数据的实证研究

台风作为全球发生频率最高,影响最严重的一种自然灾害,对我国的影响也非常严重。在巨灾风险证券化、巨灾债券已成为巨灾保险业大趋势的背景下,发展我国台风灾害债券具有重要的现实意义。以我国受台风灾害影响最严重的省份——广东省为研究对象,收集了其近30年相关台风损失数据,利用非寿险精算技术分析其台风的损失分布和次数分布,在此基础上利用CAMP模型和现金流分析对广东省的台风灾害债券做了初步设计。     

Realistic retrospective dose assessments to members of the public around Spanish nuclear facilities

In the frame of an epidemiological study carried out in the influence areas around the Spanish nuclear facilities (ISCIII-CSN, 2009. Epidemiological Study of The Possible Effect of Ionizing Radiations Deriving from The Operation of Spanish Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities on The Health of The Population Living in Their Vicinity. Final report December 2009. Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear. Madrid. Available from: http://www.csn.es/images/stories/actualidad_datos/especiales/epidemiologico/epidemiological_study.pdf), annual effective doses to public have been assessed by the Spanish Nuclear Safety Council (CSN) for over 45 years using a retrospective realistic-dose methodology. These values are compared with data from natural radiation exposure. For the affected population, natural radiation effective doses are in average 2300 times higher than effective doses due to the operation of nuclear installations (nuclear power stations and fuel cycle facilities). When considering the impact on the whole Spanish population, effective doses attributable to nuclear facilities represent in average 3.5 × 10⁻⁵ mSv/y, in contrast to 1.6 mSv/y from natural radiation or 1.3 mSv/y from medical exposures.     

论信息产业与可持续发展

信息产业与可持续发展在共同的时代背景下应运而生,相互作用又有机统一.信息产业对可持续发展有显著的正效应,主要表现为:信息产业对经济发展的贡献;信息技术的发展应用,可以减少人物流动,提高资源配置效率;合理利用自然资源,实时监测环境变化;可以通过非物质化降低能耗和物耗,等等.同时,信息产业因其固有的特殊性,又表现出与可持续发展不协调的方面,如信息安全与信息污染、电子产品中有毒元素的应用、电磁辐射及对人体的影响等.文章最后提出,信息产业对社会经济的可持续发展具有重要的推动作用,大力发展信息产业是我国产业结构调整的必然选择,以可持续发展战略指导信息产业健康发展,并以信息产业推动其他行业的可持续发展,提高资源环境利用和管理水平,是可持续发展的必由之路.