北京市生活垃圾产生量的预测研究

分析了影响北京市城市生活垃圾产生量的因素,采用多元回归分析方法建立了城市生活垃圾年产生量的预测模型.并采用该模型,对2013-2015年北京市城市生活垃圾年产生量进行了预测.结果表明,未来2年北京市城市生活垃圾产生量呈缓慢上升趋势,预计到2015年北京市城市生活垃圾产生量将达到662.4t.     

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY IMPACTS OF A WATER RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT PROJECT1

ABSTRACT: At a time in history when water resource development in the United States is being condemned as both economically inefficient and an environmental disaster, perhaps economists need to look back at previous development to see what the fruits of water development (be they sweet or sour) have been. The Boise Project of south-western Idaho is 70 years old and to some people it represents a gross error in resource use, while to others it represents a means of livelihood and well being. A recent research project at the University of Idaho attempted to measure not only the direct economic income benefits of the project (from irrigation), but also the indirect or secondary income benefits (from the food processing industry). Periodic regional input-output tables were constructed to assess the income generated from irrigation and food processing over the period from 1946 to 1970. Input-output analysis allowed researchers to evaluate the direct and indirect impacts of both the irrigation sector and the food processing sector and to compare their growth over time.     

English county councils and their agenda for waste minimisation

Minimisation is the top priority of the waste management hierarchy, which is one of the guiding principals for national solid waste management planning throughout the developed world. As such it should be encouraged as a means for reducing wastes which require treatment and disposal, whether they be household, commercial or industrial in source. This paper suggests that minimisation is not being given the necessary policy frameworks or legislation within which to develop in the UK, and questions whether minimisation is being afforded the respect and attention, from all levels, that is due the most preferable waste option according to the hierarchy. This theme is investigated by surveying the county councils of England as a representative sample of waste disposal authorities in England, and former waste regulation authorities. They are responsible for guiding local and district waste policy and are the regional waste planners in the UK. If they are not seriously taking on board the message of minimisation, then there is little chance that it will succeed without further legislative developments. Some 59% of English counties have a minimisation policy, whilst only 47% have participated in and supported a minimisation programme or trial within their region. The majority of these developments have occurred within the last three years, and 78% of counties who have participated in a programme have found it a successful venture. By 1999 79% of English counties will have been actively involved in a minimisation programme in their region, which is a positive scenario. This trend must continue if waste minimisation is to become the key theme of future sustainable waste management in the UK as was intended by declarations at the Rio '92 conference and in subsequent UK Government policy and strategy.     

浙江省灾害预防与经济协调发展的系统动态学模型

本文运用系统工程原理和系统动态学方法,构造了浙江省灾害预防与社会经济协调发展的系统动态学模型,并运用该模型对浙江省进行了初步的仿真研究,以寻求适宜的防灾政策。     

不同类型农户对宅基地退出的响应

利用重庆市梁平县农户的调查数据,运用Logistic模型,探讨了户籍制度改革下不同类型农户宅基地退出意愿及其影响因素。结果表明：(1)在现有退地补偿政策下农户意愿普遍偏低,不同类型农户退地意愿存在一定的差异性;(2)影响纯农户宅基地退出的因素有户主年龄、家庭拥有的房屋数量、对政策的支持度和退地收益;影响Ⅰ兼业户宅基地退出的因素有家庭宅基地面积大小、对政策的支持度和退地收益;影响Ⅱ兼业户宅基地退出的因素有家庭小孩数、对政策的支持度和退地收益;影响非农户宅基地退出的因素有户主年龄、户主文化程度、家庭人口数、宅基地面积和退地收益;其中,退地收益是影响各类农户退地决策最显著的因素,对政策的支持度是农户退地决策影响力最大的因素。研究认为,影响各类农户退地决策的因素存在差异,其核心问题还在于退地政策。政府应根据不同类型农户的特征完善目前的农村宅基地退出政策,这有助于提高农户的参与意愿,顺利推进户籍制度和农村土地制度的改革     

Economic and financial analysis of harvesting and utilization of river reed in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

The Okavango Delta, the largest Ramsar wetland site, is one of the most resource-rich ecosystems in Botswana. A range of resources, including reeds, contribute in various ways to the well-being of many of the communities through subsistence and income generation. The economic value of reeds and other resources found in wetlands has been poorly understood, leading to the perception that wetlands are wastelands, and have little or no economic values. Such resources are therefore likely to receive lower priority in conservation when evaluated against other alternative activities. The aim of this research was to determine the benefit and financial and economic viability of harvesting river reed in the Okavango Delta. Primary data were collected through a structured questionnaire administered at three villages in the Okavango Delta. Secondary data were collected from existing literature. Financial and economic analysis was undertaken using static and financial models. Market prices were used to calculate the net income generated from the sale of harvested reed. The measurement criteria for static models were the annual net cash income, net annual economic benefit, and return on investment (ROI), while those under the dynamic models were the net present value (NPV), benefit cost ratio (BCR), and the net benefit investment (N/K) ratio. It was more financially profitable and economically viable to harvest and sell reeds at Shorobe village (a village relatively close to the District economic centre, Maun), than Shakawe or Etsha-13.     

旅游资源竞争力与旅游收入关系实证分析——以安徽省17地市为例

在构建旅游资源竞争力评价指标体系的基础上,运用位序得分法对安徽省17个地市的旅游资源竞争力进行了评价,同时借助两轴折线图、散点图及拟合曲线等工具对17个地市旅游资源竞争力与旅游收入关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,安徽省绝大多数地市旅游业发展仍依赖于旅游资源;少数地市旅游资源竞争力与旅游收入出现偏离,成为非旅游资源依赖性城市。从资源属性来看,综合类旅游资源与旅游收入的相关性最大,其次为自然类旅游资源,人文类的相关性最小。     

均等指数和两极化指数建立与比较

在基尼系数衡量收入差距存在一定缺陷和我国收入两极化概念不清楚的情况下,本文重点对基尼系数与两极分化的涵义进行了剖析,指出了两个概念的本质与它们之间的联系、区别。对以后的收入差距测量有一定的指导意义。基尼系数反映了所有个体偏离总体的程度,两极化指数反映二大组之间差异情况。在前人测量收入差距方法基础上构造两极分化指数I。结合中国和部分其它国家的数据,测量了三个指数并进行了比较分析,结果表明:三个指数高度相关,在一般情况下均等指数、基尼系数和两极分化指数都能大致反映收入差距情况。对组间、组内差距处理方法不同是基尼系数(均等指数)与两极分化指数最根本的区别。构造的两极分化指数具有直观、易于理解、意义明确、计算简单等诸多优点。因此在测量收入差距时,倡导优先使用均等指数。在测量只有二等分组构成总体的收入差距时,优先选择两极分化指数。实际研究中,可以根据研究的问题,合理地选择基尼系数,均等指数,两极分化指数从事相关研究。     

LCA of local strategies for energy recovery from waste in England, applied to a large municipal flow

An intense waste management (WM) planning activity is currently undergoing in England to build the infrastructure necessary to treat residual wastes, increase recycling levels and the recovery of energy from waste. From the analyses of local WM strategic and planning documents we have identified the emerging of three different energy recovery strategies: established combustion of residual waste; pre-treatment of residual waste and energy recovery from Solid Recovered Fuel in a dedicated plant, usually assumed to be a gasifier; pre-treatment of residual waste and reliance on the market to accept the ‘fuel from waste’ so produced. Each energy recovery strategy will result in a different solution in terms of the technology selected; moreover, on the basis of the favoured solution, the total number, scale and location of thermal treatment plants built in England will dramatically change. To support the evaluation and comparison of these three WM strategy in terms of global environmental impacts, energy recovery possibilities and performance with respect to changing ‘fuel from waste’ market conditions, the LCA comparison of eight alternative WM scenarios for a real case study dealing with a large flow of municipal wastes was performed with the modelling tool WRATE. The large flow of waste modelled allowed to formulate and assess realistic alternative WM scenarios and to design infrastructural systems which are likely to correspond to those submitted for approval to the local authorities. The results show that all alternative scenarios contribute to saving abiotic resources and reducing global warming potential. Particularly relevant to the current English debate, the performance of a scenario was shown to depend not from the thermal treatment technology but from a combination of parameters, among which most relevant are the efficiency of energy recovery processes (both electricity and heat) and the calorific value of residual waste and pre-treated material. The contribution and relative importance of recycling and treatment/recovery processes change with the impact category. The lack of reprocessing plants in the area of the case study has shown the relevance of transport distances for recyclate material in reducing the efficiency of a WM system. Highly relevant to the current English WM infrastructural debate, these results for the first time highlight the risk of a significant reduction in the energy that could be recovered by local WM strategies relying only on the market to dispose of the ‘fuel from waste’ in a non dedicated plant in the case that the SRF had to be sent to landfill for lack of treatment capacity.     

基于夏普里值过程的农村居民收入差距分解

认识农村居民收入差距现状并研究引致收入差距的因素,对缩小收入差距的政策制定有重要意义.本文利用内蒙古和甘肃2个省1500户农户的截面数据,采用夏普里值过程对Gini系数、Theil指数、Atkinson指数这三个不平等指标进行回归分解.分解结果稳健地发现,以县域为代理变量的外部环境因素对收入差距具有重要影响,非农劳动力、培训比和家庭男劳动力比对收入差距的相对贡献度较大,而平均年龄、家庭人口和平均教育对收入差距的相对贡献较小.作为社会网络的人情收支和作为物质资本的人均土地面积对收入差距的贡献极小.从缓解中国西部农村地区间的不平等的角度看,长期而言,支持和促进地区经济发展,增加非农就业机会,提供平等的教育和培训机会,有利于缓解收入不平等.而在城市化进程中,处理好土地问题,避免作为物质资本的土地成为引致不平等的因素,对于未来控制不平等状况有重要意义.