An ecological framework for contextualizing carnivore–livestock conflict

Carnivore predation on livestock is a complex management and policy challenge, yet it is also intrinsically an ecological interaction between predators and prey. Human–wildlife interactions occur in socioecological systems in which human and environmental processes are closely linked. However, underlying human–wildlife conflict and key to unpacking its complexity are concrete and identifiable ecological mechanisms that lead to predation events. To better understand how ecological theory accords with interactions between wild predators and domestic prey, we developed a framework to describe ecological drivers of predation on livestock. We based this framework on foundational ecological theory and current research on interactions between predators and domestic prey. We used this framework to examine ecological mechanisms (e.g., density-mediated effects, behaviorally mediated effects, and optimal foraging theory) through which specific management interventions operate, and we analyzed the ecological determinants of failure and success of management interventions in 3 case studies: snow leopards (Panthera uncia), wolves (Canis lupus), and cougars (Puma concolor). The varied, context-dependent successes and failures of the management interventions in these case studies demonstrated the utility of using an ecological framework to ground research and management of carnivore–livestock conflict. Mitigation of human–wildlife conflict appears to require an understanding of how fundamental ecological theories work within domestic predator–prey systems.     

Effects of spatial autocorrelation and sampling design on estimates of protected area effectiveness

Estimating the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) in reducing deforestation is useful to support decisions on whether to invest in better management of areas already protected or to create new ones. Statistical matching is commonly used to assess this effectiveness, but spatial autocorrelation and regional differences in protection effectiveness are frequently overlooked. Using Colombia as a case study, we employed statistical matching to account for confounding factors in park location and accounted for for spatial autocorrelation to determine statistical significance. We compared the performance of different matching procedures—ways of generating matching pairs at different scales—in estimating PA effectiveness. Differences in matching procedures affected covariate similarity between matched pairs (balance) and estimates of PA effectiveness in reducing deforestation. Independent matching yielded the greatest balance. On average 95% of variables in each region were balanced with independent matching, whereas 33% of variables were balanced when using the method that performed worst. The best estimates suggested that average deforestation inside protected areas in Colombia was 40% lower than in matched sites. Protection significantly reduced deforestation, but PA effectiveness differed among regions. Protected areas in Caribe were the most effective, whereas those in Orinoco and Pacific were least effective. Our results demonstrate that accounting for spatial autocorrelation and using independent matching for each subset of data is needed to infer the effectiveness of protection in reducing deforestation. Not accounting for spatial autocorrelation can distort the assessment of protection effectiveness, increasing type I and II errors and inflating effect size. Our method allowed improved estimates of protection effectiveness across scales and under different conditions and can be applied to other regions to effectively assess PA performance.     

贵阳市生态城市人居环境评价

城市人居环境的可持续发展已经成为人类社会发展进程中的突出问题。贵阳市作为全国首个循环经济型生态示范城市，在改善城市人居环境方面取得一些进展，文章通过建立城市人居生态环境可持续发展指标体系并运用层次分析法，对贵阳市在循环经济生态城市建设过程中的人居环境发展现状进行评价。     

中国自然保护区的困境与出路

任何事物的发展总免不了挫折和失败,中国自然保护区在其发展过程中也是如此.经过50年的发展,我国的自然保护区面积与国土面积的比例已经超过了世界平均水平,但在其土地权属、与当地人民之间的利益关系上存在着很大的问题.在此,从与当地人民之间的关系出发,主要考察自然保护区的困境与出路.     

关于提高我国自然资源物权化程度的思考

自然资源物权是随着环境资源法和物权法的发展而逐渐进入人们视野的。与传统物权相比，自然资源物权是一组性质有别的权利总称．它在本质上具有物权属性．但也包含准物权的内容。可将其分为土地资源物权和其它自然资源物权。我国的自然资源物权制度主要存在所有权虚化和抽象化、使用权物权化程度不高、土地资源使用权未得到切实保障等缺陷。应当通过强化和实现自然资源所有权、积极推进自然资源使用权物权化来完善我国自然资源物权制度。在具体的制度设计上。必须保障自然资源国家所有权的有效实现，改进和完善自然资源的集体所有权；同时也要推进土地使用权和其它自然资源使用权的物权化，特别是扩大自然资源物权中公民使用权的范围．推进自然资源物权的具体化和制度化。     

有关全球气候变化问题上的公平性分析

从《联合国气候变化》了发，对人类社会应对气候变化中的“公平”性问题，从不同角度进行了系统讨论。对发展中国家和发达国家在公平原则下责任、义务及优先事项的差别进行了分析，提出并分析了以人均碳排放权相等为标准，到目标年（例2100年）各国人均碳排放量及过渡期内（例1990-2100）人均累积碳排放量两个趋同的碳排放权分配原则。     

建立可持续发展的人力资源开发战略

本文从我国可持续发展战略，分析了人力资源开发在经济持续发展中的作用，提出了建立一个可持续发展的人力资源开发战略的建议与决策。     

气候变化和人类活动对历史时期黄河决溢的影响

本文统计分析了历史时期黄河决溢的变化。并从自然和人为因素两方面探讨其原因和规律。认为在湿润的气候时期黄河决溢频率增高,其原因是本地区高强度的暴雨造成了黄土高原严重的水土流失,从而使黄河中下游大量的泥沙沉积。人类特别是小冰期以来加强了对黄土高原的开发,破坏了原先的植被,从而造成了严重的水土流失,这是小冰期以来黄河决溢次数远远高于其它时期的主要原因。作者还认为在下世纪高温环境到来之际,黄河决溢的危险性大大增加。     

论人与自然的失衡

自从人在地球上产生,便有了人与自然的关系,随着全球性的生态危机的出现,使人与自然的关系问题更加突出,人口、资源、环境和发展的矛盾日益尖锐,人们对环境问题的认识不断深化。     

The influence of gravidity on Down's syndrome screening with free beta hCG

Total human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) levels have been shown in one previous small study to vary with gravidity. In order to establish if maternal serum free beta hCG was similarly affected, approximately 4500 pregnancies of varying gravidity were analysed. The results indicated that there was a 6 per cent higher median MOM in primigravid compared with multigravid women. The impact of such elevation in Down's syndrome screening programmes will be minimal.