地下水位波动及降水对原油在非均质土层中重分布的影响

为研究原油泄漏后在非均质土层中的重分布过程及影响因素,建立3种不同组合的非均质土层物理模型（编号分别为L-a、L-b、L-c）进行原油泄漏后重分布过程的室内模拟,分别代表局部非渗透性透镜体（浅层泄漏）、大面积弱渗透性粉质亚黏土（内部泄漏）和土层界面（浅层泄漏）存在条件.待原油重力渗透稳定后分别进行升降水位和降水的模拟试验,由PET聚酯膜绘制、CCD相机拍摄和基于CMYK的灰度分析等图像采集和分析法获得平面运移分布图、纵剖面灰度变化图,采用风干法和紫外分光光度法获得采样点含水率和含油率对比图,分析原油泄漏后在非均质土层中的运移规律.结果表明:①在水位波动下,局部非渗透性透镜体和大面积粉质亚黏土弱透水层可有效截获原油,使原油在其左右及上侧大量聚集;3组试验中原油的重分布过程以垂向运移为主,但在粗-细界面和细-粗界面会因油水驱替和毛细压力导致其部分横向运移.②模拟降水时,受到淋滤和水位波动的综合效应,原油油聚区不能在短时间内随水位线移动,体现其滞后性;在模拟降水结束后油聚区大量分布于水位线位置和细-粗界面处;降水对土壤中的原油具一定稀释作用.③L-a和L-c组表层泄漏的原油分布面积（分别为800、538 cm2）较大,采样点含油率极差（分别为6.23%、6.80%）较大;而L-b组内部泄漏的原油分布面积（235 cm2）较小,采样点含油率极差（2.99%）较小.研究显示,地下水位波动及降水对非均质土层中原油的周期性聚集和释放有一定影响,尤其是局部非渗透性透镜体、大面积弱渗透性粉质亚黏土及岩性界面存在土层中影响更大.      

Income Growth,Urbanization, Changing Life Style and Energy Requirements in China

Abstract

This paper aims to estimate the effects of changing life style and consumption demands driven by income growth and urbanization on increase of energy requirements in China, and estimate the impacts of improvement in household consumption on mitigating energy requirements towards 2020, based on input-output analysis and scenarios simulation approach. The result shows that energy requirement per capita has increased by 159% for urban residents and 147% for rural residents from 1995 to 2004. Growth in household consumption driven by income growth and urbanization may induce a successive increase in energy requirements in future. Per capita energy requirements of urban residents will increase by 240% during 2002–2015 and 330% during 2002–2020. Urbanization might lead to 0.75 billion ton of increment of energy requirements in 2020. About 45%–48% of total energy requirements in China might be a consequence of residents’ life styles and the economic activities to support consumption demands in 2020. Under low-carbon life style scenario, per capita energy requirements of urban residents may decline to 97% in 2015 and 92% in 2020 in contrast with baseline scenario. That implies that China needs to pay a great attention to developing green low-carbon life style in order to realize mitigation target towards 2020.     

The Empirical Analysis of the Impacts of Income Distribution Gap on Consumption Demand: Based on the Statistic Data of Chinese Urban Residents in 2000–2010

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of income distribution gap on consumption demand from a theoretical view, and draws the conclusion that there is an inverse relationship between income distribution gap and consumption demand. Then, the paper finds that the existing widening income distribution gap in China has a negative impact on consumption demand, but this is not the key factor for the insufficient consumption demand because of the low level of per capital income. At last, it suggests that governments should improve the income level of entire residents and adjust income distribution structure simultaneously.     

Estimating the benefits and costs to mountain bikers of changes in trail characteristics,access fees,and site closures: choice experiments and benefits transfer

Mountain biking is an increasingly popular leisure pursuit. Consequences are trail degradation and conflicts with hikers and other users. Resource managers often attempt to resolve these problems by closing trails to mountain biking. In order to estimate the impact of these developments, a model has been devised that predicts the effects of changes in trail characteristics and introduction of access fees, and correlates these with biker preference on trail selection. It estimates each individual's per-ride consumer's surplus associated with implementing different policies. The surplus varies significantly as a function of each individual's gender, budget, and interest in mountain biking. Estimation uses stated preference data, specifically choice experiments. Hypothetical mountain bike trails were created and each surveyed biker was asked to make five pair-wise choices. A benefit-transfer simulation is used to show how the model and parameter estimates can be transferred to estimate the benefits and costs to mountain bikers in a specific area.     

基于多因素的我国城乡收入差距实证分析

本文从宏观经济学“收入=消费＋储蓄”这个恒等式和我国经济、人口的相关数据,动态上测算出不同时期我国城市居民和农村居民的收入,总体上估计了我国城乡收入差距的大小,其结果更接近当前我国社会的现实。由此可以看出我国城乡收入差距将有不断扩大的必然趋势。本文进一步把城乡收入差距分解为消费差距和储蓄差距,并且考察了我国人口和产业的演进,分析了它们各自对现在和今后形成差距的影响,表明我国城乡收入差距不断扩大的原因是：城乡资源占有不均等的制度和由于制度原因形成的存量资产（储蓄）又在市场作用下继续拉大差距的双重因素。所以,政府不仅要使农民“减负”、“增收”,而且要运用法律、财政、税收等手段,多管齐下,改变目前的资源分配格局,方能解决“三农”问题之痼疾。     

土地流转与农户收入增长——基于收入结构的视角

农户参与土地流转能否产生正的收入效应是一个广为社会各界关注的问题,然而已有的经验研究结论却大相径庭,文章以为对土地流转异质性影响的忽视是导致诸多土地流转收入效应研究结论不一致的关键。基于此,文章应用2010—2018五轮中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS),分析土地流转对不同农户类型、不同收入来源的影响差异。基本实证结果表明:第一,土地流转确实会增加农户收入,但是主要表现为对转出农户有正的收入效应,对转入农户的家庭纯收入影响并不明显。第二,土地流转对转入农户与转出农户的不同类型收入的影响并不一致。转出户工资性收入增长幅度远高于经营性收入下降幅度,工资性收入对转出户家庭纯收入的增长贡献接近80%;转入户的经营性收入增长无法弥补工资性收入下降,导致家庭总收入水平没有显著变化。以上实证结果经双重差分模型、处理效应模型等一系列模型敏感性分析后并未改变,表明文章的基本结论是稳健的。进一步地,文章对收入异质性的原因进行分析,发现土地流转对不同农户的劳动力资源配置决策影响存在差异,转出户外出务工与创业的概率增加,非农生产的劳动力投入增加;而转入户则在农业生产中投入更多资源,包括家庭农业劳动参与增加以及农业投入增加。文章进一步的政策讨论也发现,由于转出农户对技术改进的依赖性较弱,转出农户只需要保证能够找到一份替代工作就可以获得更高的收入;但对转入农户而言,由于缺乏足够的技术帮扶,所以他们的土地生产改进有限,反而难以产生土地流转理论提到的资源配置优化,这可能会限制土地流转市场的进一步扩大。综上,文章研究为优化土地流转政策、提高土地流转参与率,并最终实现农户的社会福利改善提供了一定的理论与经验证据支持。     

宁波市水资源可持续利用的经济分析

随着经济社会的快速发展,宁波水资源短缺矛盾日益突出,通过对宁波市历年的水价、人均用水量、人均可支配收入的变化的分析可以看出水价与用水量的关系,重点探讨了引进市场机制,建立水权转让制度,改革水资源价格和水资源的开发管理方式,实行水资源的有偿使用和转让,优化配置水资源,提高水资源的使用效率和效益,以水资源的可持续利用支撑经济和社会的可持续发展.     

衡阳市农民收入状况及对策分析

通过对衡阳市农民收入现状和农村经济发展特点的研究,发现多年来农村经济发展中存在的主要问题.分析影响农民收入的主要因素和农民增收缓慢的主要原因,针对存在的问题提出了加快农村经济发展和增加农民收入的对策思路.     

淋洗修复后残留土壤中重金属的再释放及环境风险

淋洗修复后残留土壤中的重金属会因外界环境的改变可能会发生再释放过程而使环境风险增加,淹水是农田土壤常见的管理模式之一,然而淹水介导的土壤环境条件的改变对淋洗修复后残留农田土壤中重金属的再释放和环境风险的变化影响尚不清楚.因此,本研究开展了持续淹水培养（180 d）对经柠檬酸（CA）、EDTA、FeCl₃和HCl淋洗修复后残留土壤中Cd、Pb和Zn的有效性、形态分配和环境风险的影响研究.结果表明随着培养时间的延长,经CA、EDTA和HCl淋洗后土壤中有效态Cd含量呈先增加后减少的趋势,有效态Pb含量增加,有效态Zn含量减少.经FeCl₃淋洗后土壤中有效态Cd、Pb和Zn含量随培养时间延长而增加.形态分析结果表明,淹水会使土壤E_h降低而致使铁锰氧化物的溶解,因此导致可还原态Pb含量向弱酸提取态Pb转移是有效态Pb含量增加的原因;土壤弱酸提取态Cd含量变化与土壤有效态Cd含量变化基本一致;淹水对淋洗修复后Zn形态的影响较小.基于改进的潜在生态风险指数法评价结果表明淹水使CA、EDTA和HCl淋洗后土壤Cd、Zn环境风险和重金属环境总风险减少,使Pb的环境风险增加.淹水后FeCl₃淋洗后土壤Cd、Pb和Zn环境风险及重金属环境总风险增加.由于FeCl₃淋洗后的土壤重金属污染状况较低且环境总风险（低风险）明显小于其它3种淋洗剂淋洗的土壤,因此,FeCl₃可成为Cd-Pb-Zn复合污染土壤的淋洗剂选择,但是需关注其淋洗修复后残留土壤中重金属的再释放并采取调控措施.本研究结果可为农田重金属污染土壤合适淋洗剂的选择和淋洗法修复重金属污染农田土壤的效果评估提供更为合理的指导思路.     

Commute mode diversity and income inequality: an inter-urban analysis of 148 midsize US cities

Little is known about the relationship between multi-modal transportation environments and aspects of sustainable urban development, such as reduced income inequality and affordable housing. This study, adapted from Molotch and Appelbaum's inter-city differential method, studied 148 semi-isolated mid-size cities. Using U.S. Census data from 2013, we found that increased diversity in commute modality is associated with less income inequality between white and African-American households, as well as between men and women. Commute mode diversity is also associated with higher earnings for white women and African-American men. Our study also shows that cities with more commuter mode diversity are associated with higher home property values and affordable rental markets compared to automobile dependent cities. These results undercut the notion that increasing automobile ownership is a reasonable policy response to urban poverty, and suggest that sustainable transportation policy can produce positive economic gains for cities. This work adds to the growing literature identifying fundamental differences between multimodal and automobile dependent cities.