基于系统动力学的安全生产监管有效性研究

为改善我国安全生产监管的效果,研究引入激励性监管措施后的安全生产监管效果。运用系统动力学(SD)建模方法,对比单用约束性监管措施的效果与综合运用约束性监管措施和激励性监管措施的效果。研究结果表明:单独使用约束性监管措施时,提高检查罚金和事故赔偿额,会使企业净收益、政府与企业的净收益总和增加。然而,综合使用约束性监管措施和激励性监管措施时,企业的净收益额增加,政府的净收益额减少,而企业与政府的净收益总额变化不大,但结合对事故负外部性的考虑,通常会使社会福利额外提高。     

The Empirical Analysis of the Impacts of Income Distribution Gap on Consumption Demand： Based on the Statistic Data of Chinese Urban Residents in 2000-2010

This paper analyzes the impact of income distribution gap on consumption demand from a theoretical view, and draws the conclusion that there is an inverse relationship between income distribution gap a...     

地下水位波动及降水对原油在非均质土层中重分布的影响

为研究原油泄漏后在非均质土层中的重分布过程及影响因素,建立3种不同组合的非均质土层物理模型（编号分别为L-a、L-b、L-c）进行原油泄漏后重分布过程的室内模拟,分别代表局部非渗透性透镜体（浅层泄漏）、大面积弱渗透性粉质亚黏土（内部泄漏）和土层界面（浅层泄漏）存在条件.待原油重力渗透稳定后分别进行升降水位和降水的模拟试验,由PET聚酯膜绘制、CCD相机拍摄和基于CMYK的灰度分析等图像采集和分析法获得平面运移分布图、纵剖面灰度变化图,采用风干法和紫外分光光度法获得采样点含水率和含油率对比图,分析原油泄漏后在非均质土层中的运移规律.结果表明:①在水位波动下,局部非渗透性透镜体和大面积粉质亚黏土弱透水层可有效截获原油,使原油在其左右及上侧大量聚集;3组试验中原油的重分布过程以垂向运移为主,但在粗-细界面和细-粗界面会因油水驱替和毛细压力导致其部分横向运移.②模拟降水时,受到淋滤和水位波动的综合效应,原油油聚区不能在短时间内随水位线移动,体现其滞后性;在模拟降水结束后油聚区大量分布于水位线位置和细-粗界面处;降水对土壤中的原油具一定稀释作用.③L-a和L-c组表层泄漏的原油分布面积（分别为800、538 cm2）较大,采样点含油率极差（分别为6.23%、6.80%）较大;而L-b组内部泄漏的原油分布面积（235 cm2）较小,采样点含油率极差（2.99%）较小.研究显示,地下水位波动及降水对非均质土层中原油的周期性聚集和释放有一定影响,尤其是局部非渗透性透镜体、大面积弱渗透性粉质亚黏土及岩性界面存在土层中影响更大.      

Rural-urban Migration,Rural Household Income and Sustainable Development in Rural Areas of China

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationships among rural-urban migration, rural household income and sustainable development in rural areas of China. The typical case study is done and 288 questionnaires are collected from five villages in Hebei and Guangxi provinces, China. The migration and remittance status, household income and sustainable development of rural areas are analyzed on the basis of questionnaires. Rural-urban migration is becoming a part of routine life in rural areas. And remittance is an important component in rural household income. Rural-urban migration increases the arable land area per labor, which releases the tight human-land relationship in villages. In total, the migration increases the rural household income and accelerates the sustainable development of rural areas.     

农地整治何以促进农户收入增加——基于整治模式和地貌类型的异质分析

首先基于可持续生计框架构建农地整治对农户收入的影响机制,并进一步揭示其作用效果的整治模式与地貌类型差异;然后利用湖北省地处江汉平原的天门市和潜江市、武陵山区的宣恩县和咸丰市483户农户的两期面板数据,采用双重差分模型检验同一地貌是否实施农地整治、同一地貌不同农地整治模式和不同地貌同一农地整治模式对农户收入的影响。结果表明：（1）地方政府主导模式和新型农业经营主体主导模式均能显著增加农户收入。（2）新型农业经营主体模式的增收效应远远大于地方政府主导模式,但即使同一地貌类型,不同农地整治模式对农户分项收入的影响程度、大小和显著性存在较大差异。（3）平原农地整治的增收效应明显高出山区农地整治,但即使同一整治模式,不同地貌农地整治对农户分项收入的影响程度、大小和显著性存在明显差异。因此,农地整治的农户收入效应受到整治模式和地貌类型的共同制约。     

Humble Opinions on the Relationship between the Percentage of Urban Residents in an Urban Region and the Economic Status in This Region in China

It is a fact that in U.S. the immigration between rural areas and city areas is free, but in China this type of immigration is restricted by HUKOU system （Hukou, namely the household registration system, was designed to control rural-urban in China）. All of those national policies in city areas are much better than those in rural areas, so those corresponding differences bring about great discrepancy of the economic status （mainly including GDP per person and income per resident） between rural and city areas in the same urban region, especially in different urban re- gions because the percentage of urban residents in those urban regions is in-equable. The present paper mainly researches the topic of relationship between the percentage of urban residents and the economic status in an urban region in China, including the relationship between the economic and the political functions of a settlement in China during the process of urbanization.     

收益视角下我国产业环境压力与经济效益分析

在实现经济效益的同时，兼顾可持续发展已成为推进产业新常态发展的必然选择.本文首先采用多区域投入产出的戈什模型，从行业层面核算了我国各产业2009年的收益侧完全碳排放系数和感应力系数，然后根据2个系数的大小将34个产业部门划分为4大类.实证结果表明：第Ⅰ类行业对经济的推动能力较好，同时对环境产生的负面影响较大.第Ⅱ类行业需要促进行业内整合，提高行业的能源利用率.第Ⅲ类行业属于福利性产业，应当予以保护和支持.Ⅳ类行业具有较高的感应力系数和较低的完全收益侧碳排放系数，兼具行业友好和经济效益，满足当前供给侧结构性改革的内在要求，需要鼓励和发展.     

关于改进个人所得税制的思考

我国个人所得税制实施至今,对国民经济的发展起到了不可替代的作用,同时也日益暴露其不足之处。本文就如何改进现行税制,提出五种改进方法,以期使个人所得税真正成为良税。     

信息对农民增收的影响及效应分析

通过建立模型,分析了信息对农民收入的影响,结果显示,信息量、信息渠道对信息的扭曲等严重制约了农民收入的提高;目前,我国农民信息渠道单一,信息量小已经成为制约农民收入增长的重要影响因素。     

A Cross-National Analysis of How Economic Inequality Predicts Biodiversity Loss

Abstract:  We used socioeconomic models that included economic inequality to predict biodiversity loss, measured as the proportion of threatened plant and vertebrate species, across 50 countries. Our main goal was to evaluate whether economic inequality, measured as the Gini index of income distribution, improved the explanatory power of our statistical models. We compared four models that included the following: only population density, economic footprint (i.e., the size of the economy relative to the country area), economic footprint and income inequality (Gini index), and an index of environmental governance. We also tested the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, but it was not supported by the data. Statistical comparisons of the models revealed that the model including both economic footprint and inequality was the best predictor of threatened species. It significantly outperformed population density alone and the environmental governance model according to the Akaike information criterion. Inequality was a significant predictor of biodiversity loss and significantly improved the fit of our models. These results confirm that socioeconomic inequality is an important factor to consider when predicting rates of anthropogenic biodiversity loss.