HYDROLOGIC AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF DROUGHT UNDER ALTERNATWE POLICY RESPONSES1

ABSTRACT: A severe sustained drought in the Colorado River Basin would cause economic damages throughout the Basin. An integrated hydrologic-economic-institutional model introduced here shows that consumptive water users in headwaters states are particularly vulnerable to very large shortfalls and hence large damages because their rights are effectively junior to downstream users. Chronic shortfalls to consumptive users relying on diversions in excess of rights under the Colorado River Compact are also possible. Nonconsumptive water uses (for hydropower and recreation) are severely affected during the worst drought years as instream flows are reduced and reservoirs are depleted. Damages to these uses exceeds those to consumptive uses, with the value of lost hydropower production the single largest economic impact of a severe sustained drought. Modeling of alternative policy responses to drought suggests three general policy approaches with particular promise for reducing damages. Consumptive use damages can be reduced by over 90 percent through reallocation from low to high valued uses and through reservoir storage strategies which minimize evaporation losses. Reservoir management to preserve minimum power pool levels for hydropower production (and to maintain reservoir recreation) may reduce damages to these nonconsumptive uses by over 30 percent, but it may increase consumptive use shortfalls.     

A GAMING EVALUATION OF COLORADO RWER DROUGHT MANAGEMENT INSTITUTIONAL OPTIONS1

ABSTRACT: Researchers representing each of the Colorado River Basin states as well as the Secretary of the Interior were presented with an interactive computer simulation of a progressively increasing drought and were given the collective opportunity to change the ways in which basin-wide and within-state water management were conducted. The purpose of this “gaming” exercise was to identify rules for managing the Colorado River which are effective in preventing drought-caused damages to basin water users. This water management game was conducted three times, varying the collective choice roles for management of the river yet staying substantially within the current institution for management of the Colorado River known as the “Law of the River.” The Law of the River was quite effective in minimizing drought impacts upon consumptive water uses. Additional effective drought-coping measures to protect consumptive uses consisted mostly of intrastate water management improvements which states were able to implement independently. The Law of the River did not protect non-consumptive water uses, such as hydroelectric power generation, water-based recreation, endangered species, and water quality from drought, as well as it protected consumptive water uses. Players reached collective choice decisions to cope with rising salinity, equalize storage between the upper and lower basins, and protect endangered species. While these measures had some success, only reductions in withdrawals for consumptive uses, particularly in the upper basin, could have substantially lessened adverse impacts.     

PUBLIC PARTICIPATION IN WATER PLANNING: A CRITIQUE OF THEORY,DOCTRINE, AND PRACTICE1

ABSTRACT. Water development planning has virtually since its beginnings over one hundred fifty years ago utilized a variety of devices for involving segments of the public. But a new insistence for increased public participation, particularly at the Federal level, has stimulated re-examination of objectives and methods for relating water planning to citizen interests and preferences. Involved is partly a recommitment to democratic symbols, partly a recognition that segments of society have been overlooked, and partly a reaction to the pressures of confrontation and demonstration. The rhetoric and polemics of participation have often implied a kind of “town-meeting” process of decision, difficult at best in a nation of 200 million. In water planning more emphasis has been placed on listening to citizens, which has meant providing opportunities for influentials to express their views and preferences. A more adequate approach would seem to require identification of all who are significantly affected by plans and proposals (even though they may not perceive then-interest). But gaining greater participation does not make the planning job easier. It may increase tension and conflict; it may require difficult choices; and it can alter existing power relationships and generate changes with considerable consequences for the agency and its programs.     

Indigenous responses to drought in sub-Saharan Africa*

Drought is a frequent occurrence in contemporary sub-Saharan Africa, and the existence of periodic drought can be documented over hundreds of years. As a consequence of the routine rainfall shortages that affect them, agricultural and pastoral societies have developed a number of social institutions and mechanisms for bridging temporary food production shortfalls caused by drought. Drawing on the literature and field data from southeastern Kenya, this paper discusses a number of regular indigenous responses to short-term drought in sub-Saharan Africa. Changes in these patterns in the present day are also discussed. It is concluded that market-based responses are now the most important strategies, but that traditional institutions remain significant and contribute to the viability of drought-affected societies.     

充分利用"外脑"资源促进高等职业教育的改革与发展

面对诸多机遇和挑战,高等职业教育院校的竞争将愈加激烈;高等职业教育院校的主办者和管理者也将面临越来越严峻的考验.因此,若想跟上时代的步伐,适应社会的需求,仅靠自身的力量是远远不够的.联系我校发展实际,我们体会到,充分利用"外脑"资源可以促进信息交流与观念更新;促进产学研合作;促进学习型组织的形成;促进内部沟通状况的改善;促进客观公正地诊断与处理问题;促进管理决策的科学化和有效性.     

The need for flexibility in freshwater treaty regimes

Shrinking freshwater supplies pose particular threats in international drainage basins, which serve some 40% of the global population and account for around 60% of the world's river flows. The use and management of these basins are increasingly governed by treaties between the riparian states. While the rules of international law, properly understood, are sufficiently flexible to permit adaptation to changing conditions such as development, population growth and climate change, treaties are essentially rigid instruments that are modifiable only under certain limited conditions. Countries should take this fact into account in designing the regimes to govern their shared freshwater resources, including joint management institutions.     

我国环境管理的发展轨迹分析

在综合分析环境管理相关研究成果的基础上,梳理了我国环境管理的思想、理论、机构、法制建设、制度及其教育宣传六个方面的发展轨迹,探讨了当前环境管理各方面轨迹脉络和目前仍存在的问题。     

高等院校教育技术的发展思路探讨

本文阐述了高等院校教育技术的发展现状，分析了高等院校教育技术发展的特点，对高等院校教育技术的发展进行理性思考。认为高等院校应该在重视教育技术实践性和支持性研究的基础上，立足现实，更全面审视机构整合、教育信息化、信息资源库建设和教师培训这些热点问题。     

Managing climate change vulnerabilities: formal institutions and knowledge use as determinants of adaptive capacity at the local level in Sweden

Though managing vulnerabilities posed by climate change calls for effective strategies and measures, its challenges have hitherto not been fully understood. In Sweden, municipalities have recently started incorporating vulnerability management into their political and administrative agendas. This study discusses such experiences and explores how institutional determinants may influence adaptive capacity within a local case study area, to illustrate emerging challenges and opportunities for Swedish municipalities in managing climate vulnerabilities. Specifically, formal institutional structure and the use of knowledge are analysed, concluding that vulnerability management often is focused on technical and reactive fixes, due to limited co-operation between local sector organisations, lack of local co-ordination, and an absence of methods and traditions to build institutional knowledge. Even so, opportunities, such as a high capacity to examine risks to technical systems and important establishments which in turn facilitates protection of technical infrastructure exposed to climate variability and change, also exist.