整合消费与增加值视角的中国行业碳排放变动分解研究

在研究影响我国CO 2排放因素领域,基于投入产出技术的分解模型已成为主要的分析工具,现有研究多分别基于消费视角或收益视角展开分析。为全面评估各行业收益与消费对其上游、下游行业碳排放的综合影响,整合基于收益与基于消费两个视角,运用2012年与2015年我国投入产出表,构建两层嵌套式结构分解分析模型(SDA),比较分析消费规模效应、收益规模效应、行业流入、流出增加值变动效应、增加值结构变动效应等14个影响各行业碳排放变动的关键因素,并借助对消费者原则碳排放估算公式的重构,更准确地实现从增加值视角对各行业消费者原则碳排放变动的关键影响因素分析。研究发现:①研究期内,我国在总产出增长29.14%的同时碳排放量上升1.46%,各行业碳排放强度下降是主要的减排因素,其中建筑业减排贡献最大。②增排效应方面,影响从大到小依次为消费规模、收益规模、完全投入结构与完全消费结构四项效应,且前两个规模效应的影响是后两个结构效应的2倍以上,尤其建筑业消费规模效应、煤炭采选产品业收益规模效应增排较大。③消费规模扩大导致增排的原因并非行业本身生产规模扩大,而主要在于建筑业、服务业等行业规模扩张时吸收其他行业流入的增加值量增多。④收益规模扩大导致的增排效应方面,细分来说从大到小依次为劳动者报酬、生产税净额、固定资产折旧、营业盈余四项效应,且行业差异显著,如煤炭采选产品业的劳动者报酬效应,石油、炼焦产品和核燃料加工品业的生产税净额效应以及电力、热力生产和供应业的营业盈余效应增排贡献较大,而煤炭采选产品业的营业盈余效应、批发、零售业和住宿、餐饮业的生产税净额效应则减排贡献较大。     

异波折板水解酸化-A~2O一体化反应器实验研究

设计了异波折板水解酸化-A2O一体化反应器,进行生活污水处理的实验研究。10个月的实验结果表明,系统的最佳水力停留时间(HRT)为8 h时,最适COD进水浓度为240~600 mg/L,最佳混合液回流比(r)-污泥回流比(R)为250%~100%。控制反应器于以上运行参数下,25±2℃所对应的COD、TN和TP去除率分别为96.84%、67.55%和81.92%。当温度降至7℃时,其COD、TP和TN分别降至86.35%、50.25%和65.68%。基于实验分析结果,阐明了一体化反应器高效性的机理在于异波折板水解酸化段具有高效传质特性和A2O段具有复合式活性污泥-接触氧化好氧池的特点。     

Can oil prices help estimate commodity futures prices? The cases of copper and silver

There is an extensive literature on modeling the stochastic process of commodity futures. It has been shown that models with several risk factors are able to adequately fit both the level and the volatility structure of observed transactions with reasonable low errors.     

Critical Steps for Continuing Advancement of Satellite Rainfall Applications for Surface Hydrology in the Nile River Basin1

Gebremichael, Mekonnen, Emmanouil N. Anagnostou, and Menberu M. Bitew, 2010. Critical Steps for Continuing Advancement of Satellite Rainfall Applications for Surface Hydrology in the Nile River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):361-366. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00428.x. Abstract: Given the increasingly higher resolution and data accessibility, satellite precipitation products could be useful for hydrological application in the Nile River Basin, which is characterized by lack of reasonably dense hydrological in situ sensors and lack of access to the existing dataset. However, in the absence of both extreme caution and research results for the Nile basin, the satellite rainfall (SR) products may not be used, or may even be used erroneously. We identify two steps that are critical to enhance the value of SR products for hydrological applications in the Nile basin. The first step is to establish representative validation sites in the Nile basin. The validation site will help to quantify the errors in the different kinds of SR products, which will be used to select the best products for the Nile basin, include the errors in decision making, and design strategies to minimize the errors. Using rainfall measurements collected from the unprecedented high-density rain gauge network over a small region within the Nile basin, we indicate that SR estimates could be subject to significant errors, and quantification of estimation errors by way of establishing validation sites is critically important in order to use the SR products. The second step is to identify the degree of hydrologic model complexity required to obtain more accurate hydrologic simulation results for the Nile basin when using SR products as input. The level of model complexity may depend on basin size and SR algorithm, and further research is needed to spell out this dependence for the Nile basin.     

多瑙河流域国际合作实践与启示

多瑙河是世界上流经国家最多的国际河流,其国际合作的成功实践对世界其他国际河流的合作具有积极的示范和借鉴作用。通过分析和总结多瑙河国际合作历程和合作特点（包括多种合作机制并存互补;引入风险管理、公众参与和流域综合管理等先进理念促进全面合作;利用GIS及数据管理等现代技术手段实现信息资源共享;利用协商和司法手段和平解决国际争端等）,结合我国国际河流的特点和国际水法及国际河流合作的发展趋势,提出了对我国的启示：应加强国际河流相关方面的研究与合作（特别是航运与水电开发等）;应充分重视国际河流生态环境保护,生态环境保护和防洪越来越强调全流域的合作与协调;应坚持国际河流的开发利用与保护并举,走平衡发展之路;应根据各国际河流特点及地区条件,选择合适的管理合作模式.     

SWOT Analysis and Challenges of Nile Basin Initiative：An Integrated Water Resource Management Perspective

River Nile is one of the longest transboundery rivers and it is shared and used by Burundi,Democratic Republic of Congo,Egypt,Ethiopia,Eritrea,Kenya,Rwanda,Sudan,Tanzania and Uganda.As of today,the Nile is a crucial resource for the economic development of the Nile Basin countries and a vital source of livelihood for 160 million inhabitants as well as 300 million people living in the 10 riparian countries.The Nile Basin Initiative(NBI) is one of the international cooperative river basin management program and regional partnership where all the Nile Basin countries except Eritrea unite to pursue long-term sustainable development,improved land use practices and management.This review therefore focused on the challenges not faced on NBI in terms of integrated use of the river and conducted analysis of strengths,weaknesses,opportunities and threats(SWOT) based on secondary data.The result of the review revealed that for decades,the Nile Basin people have been facing many complex environmental,social,economic and political challenges that have made it difficult for the proper management and sustainability of Nile water.The initiative provides training to develop skills in government ministries,non-governmental organizations and local communities in each country.It is also working to raise awareness of critical environmental issues by strengthening networks of environmental education practitioners;developing curriculum in the education sector.The challenges of NBI include the involvement and funding of World Bank,lack of sufficient staff,procedural and policies conflicts,lack of coordination and linkage with other regional institutions and lack of recognition as river basin organization.Considering the complex nature of the project,it is recommended that the NBI should come up with a strong multi-disciplinary monitoring and evaluation team to follow up all implemented projects.The NBI should carry out participatory land use planning in communities along the river basin.Moreover,livelihood analysis should be carried out especially in communities along the Nile to come up with poverty eradication projects which are socially acceptable,applicable,economically viable and affordable.     

旅游相关企业松散型纵向一体化战略联盟研究

我国旅游产业发展水平不高,其深层次的原因是旅游产业链中存在着严重的纵向外部性问题。在借助演化博弈思想对旅游产业链中经济主体的决策行为进行深入分析后,认为纵向一体化战略联盟能有效提升旅游产业链和相关主体利益,在传统的纵向一体化联盟基础上提出了一种界于市场和企业,但又不同于完全一体化的"混合"组织形式——松散型纵向一体化战略联盟,并初步描绘了这一联盟模式的构建过程。     

Regional impervious surface estimation: an urban heat island application

This paper describes a GIS-based estimation method that can be used to forecast future amounts of impervious surface as a mitigation measure for urban heat island effect in a metropolitan region. The method is unique because it employs a regression model that links the existing amount of impervious surface to population and employment at the census tract level. This approach provides a means to forecast future amounts of impervious surface based on projected population and employment. The method also includes a detailed analysis of high-resolution aerial photography to divide impervious surfaces into different categories. Subdividing impervious surfaces is necessary to evaluate potential urban heat island mitigation policies for different types of impervious surface. The analysis here shows that the impervious surface in the metropolitan Atlanta region will increase to 2638 km2 2. “The Albedo is defined as the hemispherical reflectivity averaged over the solar spectrum. A perfect reflector has a = 1, and a perfect absorber has a = 0” (Pomerantz et al. 1999 Pomerantz, M. 1999. Reflective surfaces for cooler buildings and cities. Philosophical magazine B, 79: 1457–1476. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar], p. 1458). View all notes in 2030, an increase of 45% from 2000. The most common type of impervious surface is dark-coloured pavement. Within this study area, the analyses showed that two-thirds of impervious surfaces are dark. Replacing dark pavement with light pavement materials, therefore, represents an important opportunity to mitigate the urban heat island effect in the Atlanta region.     

Influence of temporally variable groundwater flow conditions on point measurements and contaminant mass flux estimations

Monitoring of contaminant concentrations, e.g., for the estimation of mass discharge or contaminant degradation rates, often is based on point measurements at observation wells. In addition to the problem, that point measurements may not be spatially representative, a further complication may arise due to the temporal dynamics of groundwater flow, which may cause a concentration measurement to be not temporally representative. This paper presents results from a numerical modeling study focusing on temporal variations of the groundwater flow direction. “Measurements” are obtained from point information representing observation wells installed along control planes using different well frequencies and configurations. Results of the scenario simulations show that temporally variable flow conditions can lead to significant temporal fluctuations of the concentration and thus are a substantial source of uncertainty for point measurements. Temporal variation of point concentration measurements may be as high as the average concentration determined, especially near the plume fringe, even when assuming a homogeneous distribution of the hydraulic conductivity. If a heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity field is present, the concentration variability due to a fluctuating groundwater flow direction varies significantly within the control plane and between the different realizations. Determination of contaminant mass fluxes is also influenced by the temporal variability of the concentration measurement, especially for large spacings of the observation wells. Passive dosimeter sampling is found to be appropriate for evaluating the stationarity of contaminant plumes as well as for estimating average concentrations over time when the plume has fully developed. Representative sampling has to be performed over several periods of groundwater flow fluctuation. For the determination of mass fluxes at heterogeneous sites, however, local fluxes, which may vary considerably along a control plane, have to be accounted for. Here, dosimeter sampling in combination with time integrated local water flux measurements can improve mass flux estimates under dynamic flow conditions.     

MODIS Biophysical States and NEXRAD Precipitation in a Statistical Evaluation of Antecedent Moisture Condition and Streamflow1

Abstract: The potential of remotely sensed time series of biophysical states of landscape to characterize soil moisture condition antecedent to radar estimates of precipitation is assessed in a statistical prediction model of streamflow in a 1,420 km² watershed in south‐central Texas, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) time series biophysical products offer significant opportunities to characterize and quantify hydrologic state variables such as land surface temperature (LST) and vegetation state and status. Together with Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) precipitation estimates for the period 2002 through 2005, 16 raw and deseasoned time series of LST (day and night), vegetation indices, infrared reflectances, and water stress indices were linearly regressed against observed watershed streamflow on an eight‐day aggregated time period. Time offsets of 0 (synchronous with streamflow event), 8, and 16 days (leading streamflow event) were assessed for each of the 16 parameters to evaluate antecedent effects. The model results indicated a reasonable correlation (r² = 0.67) when precipitation, daytime LST advanced 16 days, and a deseasoned moisture stress index were regressed against log‐transformed streamflow. The estimation model was applied to a validation period from January 2006 through March 2007, a period of 12 months of regional drought and base‐flow conditions followed by three months of above normal rainfall and a flood event. The model resulted in a Nash‐Sutcliffe estimation efficiency (E) of 0.45 for flow series (in log‐space) for the full 15‐month period, ?0.03 for the 2006 drought condition period, and 0.87 for the 2007 wet condition period. The overall model had a relative volume error of ?32%. The contribution of parameter uncertainties to model discrepancy was evaluated.