西藏日太阳总辐射估算模型的优化与时间尺度效应

根据2012～2014年拉萨站点的日太阳辐射观测数据,对3种日太阳总辐射估算模型(左大康、Prescoff和王炳忠等提出的估算模型)的估算结果和实际观测结果进行误差检验分析,结果表明:3种模型都通过了显著性检验,其平均绝对误差(MAE)分别为6.17 MJ/(m~2·d)、6.42 MJ/(m~2·d)和12.31 MJ/(m~2·d),均方根误差(RMSE)分别为1.60 MJ/(m~2·d)、1.65 MJ/(m~2·d)和2.78 MJ/(m~2·d),表明利用地理位置信息和日照时数的左大康估算模型对拉萨日太阳总辐射的估算效果优于Prescoff和王炳忠估算模型。利用左大康估算模型分别估算得到2015年拉萨、那曲和葛尔地区的日太阳总辐射值,并进行模型验证。通过分析拉萨1971～2015年的太阳总辐射变化和周期性特征,研究日太阳总辐射估算模型的时间尺度效应。按照11年和四季两种不同的时间尺度,利用线性回归法对日太阳总辐射估算结果和实际观测结果进行误差和相关性分析,得到经验参数a和b的值与时间尺度有一定关系。11年和四季两种时间尺度除夏季以外,其他时间拟合模型的精度均得到了提高。通过线性回归法得出45年的西藏日太阳总辐射优化估算模型,该模型估算日太阳总辐射的误差小于左大康模型,估算精度较高。     

基于航迹数据的空中交通绿色绩效计算分析

为定量、直观地反映空管运行指挥对飞机温室效应的影响,首先基于快速存取记录器（QAR）记录数据建立飞行参数与飞行轨迹的BP神经网络匹配模型;然后基于QAR数据对模型进行验证;之后建立了温室效应表征参数计算模型;最后根据雷达模拟机上的飞行航迹试验数据,估算出污染物排放量和总温变潜势大小,并对不同管制员的指挥差异性进行对比分析.结果表明,利用油耗估算模型计算得到的燃油流量估算值和QAR记录的真实值之间的相对误差不超过2%,运用油耗指标与温室效应指标评估管制员水平结果不同.研究结果可以用于定量分析空管运行对温室效应的影响.     

基于DEM的山区冬季燃煤污染物排放遥感测算——以北京市门头沟区为例

选择山地面积占98.5%的北京市门头沟区作为研究区,利用资源三号（ZY-3）三线阵前、后视影像构建立体模型,提取数字高程模型（Digital Elevation Model,DEM）.由高分二号影像,基于CART（Classification and Regression Tree）决策树的面向对象方法对居住房屋进行提取,获取空间分布与面积,并结合采暖面积、采暖季燃煤量等抽样调研数据确定的深、浅山区（海拔>300m为深山区,海拔<300m为浅山区）燃煤系数,建立燃煤量估算模型.进一步,基于文献调研法获取型煤排放因子,测算燃煤产生的PM₁₀、PM_2.5、NO_x、SO₂、CO的排放量.结果表明：借助遥感技术,基于DEM可对山区燃煤污染物排放量进行快速有效测算.地形对冬季燃煤量有显著影响,深山区燃煤系数分别为12.5kg/m²,浅山区为9.375kg/m².2017年门头沟使用型煤取暖的房屋面积为5.68km²,冬季燃煤总量为6.52万t,山区各镇大气污染物排放量差别较大.     

大型复杂电子系统开展“五性”一体化设计的必要性

本文首先对大型复杂电子系统的特点及"五性"一体化设计的思想进行了阐述,进而结合工程实际,分析了当前"五性"设计存在的问题,提出开展"五性"一体化设计是解决上述问题的根本出路,并提出了相应建议措施,对如何建立"五性"指标体系、综合设计模型、"五性"一体化信息平台进行了一定的阐述。     

Economics of salt‐induced land degradation and restoration

Food security concerns and the scarcity of new productive land have put productivity enhancement of degraded lands back on the political agenda. In such a context, salt‐affected lands are a valuable resource that cannot be neglected nor easily abandoned even with their lower crop yields, especially in areas where significant investments have already been made in irrigation and drainage infrastructure. A review of previous studies shows a very limited number of highly variable estimates of the costs of salt‐induced land degradation combined with methodological and contextual differences. Simple extrapolation suggests that the global annual cost of salt‐induced land degradation in irrigated areas could be US$ 27.3 billion because of lost crop production. We present selected case studies that highlight the potential for economic and environmental benefits of taking action to remediate salt‐affected lands. The findings indicate that it can be cost‐effective to invest in sustainable land management in countries confronting salt‐induced land degradation. Such investments in effective remediation of salt‐affected lands should form part of a broader strategy for food security and be defined in national action plans. This broader strategy is required to ensure the identification and effective removal of barriers to the adoption of sustainable land management, such as perverse subsidies. Whereas reversing salt‐induced land degradation would require several years, interim salinity management strategies could provide a pathway for effective remediation and further showcase the importance of reversing land degradation and the rewards of investing in sustainable land management.     

长三角一体化高质量发展：内涵、现状及对策

推动长三角一体化发展是着眼于实现“两个一百年”奋斗目标谋划部署的重大国家战略。本文首先解析了长三角一体化发展的新态势,提出了长三角一体化高质量发展的“四更”内涵,即更高战略定位的一体化、更高效率和水平的一体化、更加协调的一体化与更优空间形态的一体化。重点回顾总结了长三角一体化发展上升为国家战略三年多以来开展的主要行动和工作成效,按照高质量发展就是贯彻新发展理念的基本逻辑,构建了体现创新、协调、绿色、开放和共享五大理念的长三角一体化高质量发展评价指标体系,评估了2018—2020年长三角一体化高质量发展状态。对照一体化高质量发展新要求,针对目前存在问题,从空间部署和重点领域等方面提出相关路径建议,以期为推动长三角一体化更高质量发展提供决策参考。     

基于极大似然法的土壤重金属删失数据的相关性

基于极大似然法（MLE）,通过构建不同情形下的似然函数,提出了删失数据相关性估计的方法.分别研究了样本容量、删失比例、总体相关系数与干扰项等因素对估计值准确性的影响.同时,将MLE与替换法（通常将删失部分替换为LOD或LOD/2）和删除法（直接将删失部分删除）做对比,检测了MLE的精准度.以澳大利亚土壤普查数据作为实例对方法进行了实例应用.结果表明：样本容量越大,研究中的MLE的结果越准确,当样本容量达到2000时,估计值具有较好的稳定性,且受删失比例影响较小.MLE的相关系数估计值随删失比例（0%~90%）与总体相关系数变化程度较小,具有渐进无偏性和一致性.添加干扰项对MLE的准确性影响较小,表明其具有较强的鲁棒性.随着删失比例的提升,MLE精确性明显优于删除法和替换法.实际数据的应用结果表明澳大利亚土壤普查数据中,Ag与Hg有着较高的相关性,Hg与Hf之间相关系数几乎为0.     

Synergies and trade-offs among integrated conservation approaches in Mexico

Integrated conservation approaches (ICAs) are employed by governments, communities, and nongovernmental organizations worldwide seeking to achieve outcomes with dual benefits for biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation. Although ICAs are frequently implemented concurrently, interactions among ICAs and the synergies or trade-offs that result are rarely considered during program design, implementation, and evaluation. In support of more deliberate and effective use of ICAs, we examined interactions among four well-known strategies: biosphere reserves (BRs), voluntary protected areas (VPAs), payments for ecosystem services (PES), and community forest management (CFM). Through a comparative case study, we analyzed interactions among spatially or temporally clustered ICAs implemented on communally held and managed lands in three ecologically and socioeconomically distinct regions of Mexico. Our research methods combined policy analysis with data gathered through participant observation and semistructured interviews (n = 78) and focus groups (n = 5) with government officials, implementers, and participants involved in ICAs in 28 communities. Despite the significant differences among the regions in which they were implemented, we found that key actors at each level of involvement generally perceived interactions among ICAs as synergistic. The PES programs were perceived to strengthen protected areas by reducing forest cover loss in and around BRs, fostering proconservation attitudes, and incentivizing the establishment of VPAs. Communities that invested PES income in CFM were motivated to conserve forests beyond the duration of PES programs, and CFM in buffer zones was perceived to strengthen BRs by maintaining forest cover and generating income for communities. We also identified key social and environmental factors that can influence these interaction effects among ICAs. Based on these findings, we recommend further study of ICA interactions and intentionally complementary policy design to maximize positive environmental and social outcomes.     

精对苯二甲酸生产企业挥发性有机物泄漏检测与排放估算

采用泄漏检测与修复(LDAR)技术分析了某精对苯二甲酸生产装置动静密封点的泄漏情况,共完成1 367个密封点的现场LDAR检测,测出28个泄漏点,总泄漏检出率为2.05%。其中储存单元的泄漏点数量较氧化单元和精制单元高,泄漏程度也较严重。泄漏点主要集中在法兰、开口管线和泵三类密封点;涉及轻液的泄漏密封点数量较多。依据LDAR检测结果,采用相关方程法估算设备动静密封点泄漏产生的挥发性有机物(VOCs)排放量约为4.999 t/a。法兰的VOCs泄漏排放量最大,约占63.89%,其次是泵和采样连接系统,占泄漏排放量的20.78%和7.89%。     

Influence of influent on anaerobic ammonium oxidation in an Expanded Granular Sludge Bed-Biological Aerated Filter integrated system

Shortcut nitrification-denitrification, anaerobic ammonium oxidation (ANAMMOX), and methanogenesis have been successfully coupled in an Expanded Granular Sludge Bed-Biological Aerated Filter (EGSB-BAF) integrated system. As fed different synthetic wastewater with chemical oxygen demand (COD) of 300–1200 mg·L^-1 and NH4+-N of 30–120 mg·L^-1 at the outer recycle ratio of 200%, the influence of influent on ANAMMOX in the integrated system was investigated in this paper. The experimental results showed that higher COD concentration caused an increase in denitrification and methanogenesis but a decrease in ANAMMOX; however, when an influent with the low concentration of COD was used, the opposite changes could be observed. Higher influent NH4+-N concentration favored ANAMMOX when the COD concentration of influent was fixed. Therefore, low COD/NH4+-N ratio would decrease competition for nitrite between ANAMMOX and denitrification, which was favorable for reducing the negative effect of organic COD on ANAMMOX. The good performance of the integrated system indicated that the bacterial community of denitrification, ANAMMOX, and methanogenesis could be dynamically maintained in the sludge of EGSB reactor for a certain range of influent.